Tuesday, March 14, 2017

MLB Season Preview - Washington Nationals

2016 Record: 95-67
Manager: Dusty Baker (2015)
1st in Division
General Manager: Mike Rizzo (2009)
Lost to the Dodgers 3-2 in the NLDS
AAA Affiliate: Syracuse Chiefs
AA Affiliate: Harrisburg Senators


News

  • Acquired C Derek Norris from San Diego for P Pedro Avila
  • Acquired OF Adam Eaton from the White Sox for Ps Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez, and Dane Dunning
  • Acquired Ps Austin Adams and Kyle McGowin from the Angels for SS Danny Espinosa 
  • Re-signed INF Stephen Drew to a 1 year, $3.5 million deal
  • Re-signed OF Chris Heisey to a 1 year, $1.4 million deal

Players Lost in the Offseason

POS.
Player
New Team
               Contract
C
Wilson Ramos
Tampa Bay Rays
2 year, $12.5 million
OF
Ben Revere
Los Angeles Angels
1 year, $4 million
SP
Mat Latos
Toronto Blue Jays
1 year, $1.5 million
RP
Matt Belisle
Minnesota Twins
1 year, $2.05 million
RP
Sean Burnett
Philadelphia Phillies

CP
Mark Melancon
San Francisco Giants
4 years, $62 million
P
Yusmeiro Petit
Los Angeles Angels
1 year, $2.25 million
RP
Marc Rzepczynski
Seattle Mariners
2 years, $11 million


Incoming Free Agents

POS.
Player
Old Team
               Contract
C
Matt Wieters
Baltimore Orioles
2 years, $21 million
1B
Adam Lind
Seattle Mariners
1 year, $1.5 million
P
Joe Blanton
Los Angeles Dodgers
1 year, $4 million


Top Prospects

  • OF Victor Robles - MLB.com (7), BA (13), BP (7)
  • RHP Erick Fedde - MLB.com (60), BA (52), BP (62)
  • OF Juan Soto - BP (57)

Projected Lineup

Order
POS
Number
Bats
Name
Age
1
SS
7
R
Trea Turner
23
2
CF
2
L
Adam Eaton
28
3
2B
20
L
Daniel Murphy
31
4
RF
34
L
Bryce Harper
24
5
3B
6
R
Anthony Rendon
26
6
LF
28
R
Jayson Werth
37
7
C
32
S
Matt Wieters
30
8
1B
11
R
Ryan Zimmerman
32
Bench
C
23
R
Derek Norris
28
Bench
1B
73
L
Adam Lind
33
Bench
1B/OF
25
L
Clint Robinson
32
Bench
IF
10
L
Stephen Drew
34
Bench
OF
14
R
Chris Heisey
32


Projected Staff

Role
POS
Number
Throws
Name
Age
1
SP
31
R
Max Scherzer
32
2
SP
37
R
Stephen Strasburg
28
3
SP
57
R
Tanner Roark
30
4
SP
47
L
Gio Gonzalez
31
5
SP
41
R
Joe Ross
23
LR
RP
-
R
Joe Blanton
36
MID
RP
-
L
Enny Romero
26
MID
RP
46
L
Oliver Perez
35
MID
RP
30
R
Koda Glover
23
SU
RP
36
L
Sammy Solis
28
SU
RP
45
R
Blake Treinen
28
CL
RP
27
R
Shawn Kelley
32


Most Important Player

  • SP Max Scherzer - With the injuries that Stephen Strasburg has dealt with the past two seasons, Scherzer has become that much more important to the Nationals.  He led the league in games started, wins, and innings pitched last season and will continue to be the team's most important player in 2017.  He has had a sub-3.00 ERA three of the past four seasons, has made at least 30 starts every season since 2009, and has thrown over 200 innings each of the past four seasons. He has also won two Cy Young Awards, one in each league, and has cemented himself among the best pitchers in the game.  For the Nationals to repeat as N.L. East champs, Scherzer will have to be elite again and be the ace of the staff.

Breakout Candidate

  • SS Trea Turner - Okay, so Turner has already proven that he can hit big league pitching and is one of the most exciting young players in the majors.  In 73 games in 2016, he batted .342, hit 13 home runs, and drove in 40 runs, all while playing solid defense.  This season, he will move back to his natural position of shortstop and should be the Nationals' lead off hitter.  While I don't think he'll hit .342 again over a full season, I think he is still a .300 hitter and will be a serious threat on the basepaths.

Regression Candidate

  • 2B Daniel Murphy - Daniel Murphy is an excellent hitter, makes great contact, hits for power, and strikes out very little, just 57 times last season.  I think he will still be a great player for Washington in 2017 but I don't think he'll bat .347 this season.  He's probably more of a .300 hitter who will continue to provide solid protection for Bryce Harper in the lineup.  If there is one area where he can improve it's his general ability to get on base, something that can be aided by walking more often.

Bounceback Candidate

  • RF Bryce Harper - Harper took a big step back in 2016 compared to his MVP-winning season in 2015.  His average regressed from .330 all the way to .243, he hit 18 fewer home runs, and his on-base percentage dropped from .460 to .373.  2016 seems like a blip on the radar of Harper's career as he has always shown the potential he lived up to in 2015.  There is also the chance that 2015 was the outlier and that he won't be able to live up to his MVP season, but I think last season was a product of injuries.

Season Outlook

  • The Nationals roster has changed quite a bit over the offseason, as the front office acquired Adam Eaton and Derek Norris in trades, and signed Matt Wieters via free agency.  The moves the team made show that management is going all-in on the present and immediate future with the current roster group they have and mortgaged the future for a better chance at a World Series.  Giving up Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez for Adam Eaton was a big price to pay but Eaton will provide an on-base threat and quality fielder the Nationals haven't had in awhile. Harper will be a free agent after the 2018 season, so the Nationals need to do everything possible to take advantage of having Harper for the next two seasons.  The team's starting rotation is really good, especially if Strasburg can stay healthy, with Scherzer coming off a second Cy Young Award and Tanner Roark having a sub-3.00 ERA season in 2016.  Their only question mark in the rotation is Gio Gonzalez, who had his worst season since 2009 and the 21-win season he had in 2012 seems a distant memory.  The Nationals need him to find his form again since he is penciled in as the team's only left-handed starter.  If the team has a true weakness, it's in the bullpen, where they currently don't have a tested closer and will probably go with Shawn Kelley.  They pursued Mark Melancon, Aroldis Chapman, and Kenley Jansen this offseason but all three went and signed elsewhere.  There are rumors that the team is still looking in on White Sox closer David Robertson, but I don't think trading away young prospects for him would be a smart move.

Predictions

  • Even before acquiring Eaton and signing Wieters, the Nationals were going to be the favorites in the N.L. East.  After adding these two players, it would take a lot for them to lose the division. I expect them to be a 95 win team this season and win the division by around 10 games.  They should be the team that can compete with the Cubs the most in the National League.
*All stats and information came from baseball-reference.com, mlb.com, espn.com, spotrac.com, fangraphs.com, baseballprospectus.com, baseballamerica.com, and rosterresource.com

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