MLB Season Preview - Arizona Diamondbacks

2016 Record: 69-93	Manager: Torey Lovullo (2016)
4th in Division	General Manager: Mike Hazen (2016)
Failed to make the playoffs	AAA Affiliate: Reno Aces AA Affiliate: Jackson Generals

News

• Fired GM Dave Steward and manager Chip Hale, replacing them with Mike Hazen and Torey Lovullo, respectively
• Acquired SS/2B Ketel Marte and SP Taijuan Walker from Seattle for P Zac Curtis, OF Mitch Haniger, and SS Jean Segura
• Traded OF Peter O'Brien to Kansas City for P Sam Lewis
• Traded INF Phil Gosselin to Pittsburgh for P Frank Duncan

Players Lost in the Offseason

POS.	Player	New Team	Contract
C	Welington Castillo	Baltimore Orioles	2 years, $13 million
RP	Daniel Hudson	Pittsburgh Pirates	2 years, $11 million

Incoming Free Agents

POS.	Player	Old Team	Contract
c	Jeff Mathis	Miami Marlins	2 years, $4 million
RP	Fernando Rodney	Miami Marlins	1 year, $2.75 million
RP	Jorge De La Rosa	Colorado Rockies	1 year, $2.25 million
RP	Kevin Jepsen	Tampa Bay Rays	1 year, $2.25 million
2B	Daniel Descalso	Colorado Rockies	1 year, $1.5 million
C	Chris Iannetta	Seattle Mariners	1 year, $1.5 million
OF	Gregor Blanco	San Francisco Giants	1 year, $1 million
C	Hank Conger	Tampa Bay Rays	1 year, $950,000

Top Prospects

• LHP Anthony Banda - BA (88)

Projected Lineup

Order	POS	Number	Bats	Name	Age
1	CF	11	R	A.J. Pollock	29
2	3B	22	L	Jake Lamb	26
3	1B	44	R	Paul Goldschmidt	29
4	RF	6	L	David Peralta	29
5	LF	24	R	Yasmany Tomas	26
6	2B	27	R	Brandon Drury	24
7	SS	16	R	Chris Owings	25
8	C	8	R	Chris Iannetta	33
Bench	C/OF	10	L	Chris Herrmann	29
Bench	C	2	R	Jeff Mathis	34
Bench	IF	13	R	Nick Ahmed	27
Bench	UT	3	L	Daniel Descalso	30
Bench	OF	41	L	Jeremy Hazelbaker	29
DL	OF	19	L	Socrates Brito	24

Projected Pitching Staff

Role	POS	Number	Throws	Name	Age
1	SP	21	R	Zack Greinke	33
2	SP	99	R	Taijuan Walker	24
3	SP	38	L	Robbie Ray	25
4	SP	26	R	Shelby Miller	26
5	SP	46	L	Patrick Corbin	27
LR	RP	53	R	Tyler Jones	27
MID	RP	-	R	Kevin Jepsen	32
MID	RP	-	R	Tom Wilhelmsen	33
MID	RP	40	L	Andrew Chafin	26
SU	RP	48	R	Randall Delgado	27
SU	RP	33	R	Jake Barrett	25
CL	RP	56	R	Fernando Rodney	40
DL	SP	54	R	Andrew Cashner	30
DL	SP	44	R	Tyson Ross	29

Most Important Player

• 1B Paul Goldschmidt - Goldschmidt, despite receiving MVP Award votes three of the past four seasons, is still undervalued by fans across baseball.  This has to be due in large part to the fact that he plays in the desert.  He batted at least .300 for three consecutive seasons before falling to a still lofty .297 last season.  He has been the only serious power threat in the Diamondbacks' lineup since the 2013 season when Justin Upton was traded.  Although Arizona's lineup has gotten more competitive in recent seasons, Goldschmidt is still the team's best hitter and is their best chance at success this season.  Hopefully for Goldschmidt's sake, he will get some protection Jake Lamb and David Peralta surrounding him in the lineup.

Breakout Candidate

• SP Taijuan Walker - Walker has pitched in parts of three big league seasons now and has shown signs of brilliance at times.  The problem, though, is that when he isn't brilliant he often lacks control and finesse, giving up a lot of home runs in the process.  The past two seasons he has been pretty bad with ERAs above 4.00 in each season.  He should get every chance to prove that he can be consistent with the Diamondbacks in 2017 despite pitching in the hitter friendly confines of Chase Field.

Regression Candidate

• OF Yasmany Tomas - Tomas has almost had identical batting averages each of the past two seasons but his home run numbers increased significantly in 2016 compared to 2015.  In 2015, Tomas hit just nine home runs in 118 games but hit 31 of them in 2016 while playing in 140 games.  It seems pretty obvious that Tomas is around a .270 hitter but I don't think he will repeat his power output that he showed in 2016.  He rode an elevated home run to fly ball rate last season, up from 13% in 2015 to 25% in 2016, and also pulled the ball 10% more to left field, the shortest wall at Chase Field.  

Bounceback Candidate

• OF A.J. Pollock - Pollock appeared in just 12 games last season after breaking his elbow at the end of spring training and then injuring his groin in late August.  When he has been healthy, Pollock is an excellent top to middle of the order bat, displaying both an ability to get on base and drive the ball.  If he is able to return to full health this season, he should be able to return to his pre-injury numbers and help the Diamondbacks greatly.

Season Outlook

• This franchise has gone through a lot in recent seasons under the leadership of Dave Stewart and Tony LaRusa.  They sold off a lot of their prospects in trades to acquire major league talent, including trading Dansby Swanson to the Braves for Shelby Miller.  They also gave Zack Greinke a six year, $206.5 million deal before last season despite not having any rotational depth behind him.  Diamondbacks ownership has decided to go in a new direction by hiring Mike Hazen as their new GM and Torey Lovullo as manager which has to mean that the team will perform better on the field in the upcoming season.  I really like Arizona's lineup as long as A.J. Pollock is healthy and can be the team's lead off hitter.  He has a career .346 on-base percentage and if can get on-base with Jake Lamb, Paul Goldschmidt, and David Peralta following him, Arizona could have a good offensive season.  I think that Goldschmidt could have another MVP-level season, Lamb will hit 25 home runs again, and Yasmany Tomas will be a power threat once again.  I really don't like Arizona's pitching staff and think that their rotation is a real weak spot.  Zack Greinke will probably bounceback from how poorly he pitched in 2016 but pitching in Chase Field doesn't bode well for any pitcher.  The team's front office acquired Taijuan Walker this offseason to pitch behind Greinke and I think Walker could finally find consistency in 2017.  Behind those two, I think the rest of the rotation is one giant question mark.  Neither Robbie Ray nor Patrick Corbin have managed to break out and Shelby Miller was abysmal last season.  

Predictions

• In 2017, the Diamondbacks probably won't be very competitive especially with how good the top of the N.L. West is.  Even if Greinke can rebound from his down season in 2016, Arizona's rotation isn't good enough to compete with the Dodgers or Giants' rotations.  I think that they will finish fourth in the division with a record of 74-88.

*All stats and information came from baseball-reference.com, mlb.com, espn.com, spotrac.com, fangraphs.com, baseballprospectus.com, baseballamerica.com, and rosterresource.com