MLB Season Preview - Kansas City Royals

2016 Record: 81-81	Manager: Ned Yost (2010)
3rd in Division	General Manager: Dayton Moore (2006)
Failed to make the playoffs	AAA Affiliate: Omaha Storm Chasers AA Affiliate: Northwest Arkansas Naturals

News

• SP Yordano Ventura was killed in a car accident in his native Dominican Republic 
• Acquired OF Jorge Soler from the Cubs for RP Wade Davis

Players Lost in the Offseason

POS.	Player	New Team	Contract
DH/1B	Kendrys Morales	Toronto Blue Jays	3 years, $33 million
SP	Edinson Volquez	Miami Marlins	2 years, $22 million
RP	Greg Holland	Colorado Rockies	1 year, $7 million
SP	Dillon Gee	Texas Rangers	1 year, $2 million
P	Kris Medlen	Atlanta Braves	1 year, $1 million
P	Nick Tepesch	Minnesota Twins	1 year, $1 million
OF	Travis Snider	Texas Rangers	1 year, $1 million
RP	Luke Hochevar	Free Agent
RP	Tim Collins	Free Agent
OF	Daniel Nava	Free Agent

Incoming Free Agents

POS.	Player	Old Team	Contract
OF	Brandon Moss	St. Louis Cardinals	2 years, $12 million
SP	Jason Hammel	Chicago Cubs	2 years, $16 million
SP	Travis Wood	Chicago Cubs	2 years, $12 million

Top Prospects

• No prospects on any list

Projected Lineup

Order	POS	Number	Bats	Name	Age
1	SS	2	R	Alcides Escobar	30
2	3B	8	L	Mike Moustakas	28
3	CF	6	R	Lorenzo Cain	30
4	1B	35	L	Eric Hosmer	27
5	C	13	R	Salvador Perez	26
6	LF	4	L	Alex Gordon	33
7	RF	12	R	Jorge Soler	25
8	DH	37	L	Brandon Moss	33
9	2B	15	R	Whit Merrifield	28
Bench	C	9	R	Drew Butera	33
Bench	IF	24	R	Christian Colon	27
Bench	IF	19	R	Cheslor Cuthbert	24
Bench	OF	16	R	Paulo Orlando	31

Projected Pitching Staff

Role	POS	Number	Throws	Name	Age
1	SP	41	L	Danny Duffy	28
2	SP	31	R	Ian Kennedy	32
3	SP	51	L	Jason Vargas	34
4	SP	39	R	Jason Hammel	34
5	SP	34	L	Travis Wood	30
LR	RP	32	R	Chris Young	37
MID	RP	26	L	Mike Minor	29
MID	RP	54	L	Scott Alexander	27
MID	RP	47	R	Peter Moylan	38
SU	RP	64	L	Matt Strahm	25
SU	RP	48	R	Joakim Soria	32
CL	RP	40	R	Kelvin Herrera	27
DL	RP	33	L	Brian Flynn	26

Most Important Player

• SP Danny Duffy - With the tragic passing of Yordano Ventura this offseason, the Royals pitching rotation took a major hit.  Danny Duffy was the team's best starting pitcher last season and is the Royals best chance at winning this season.  If he can't develop into the staff ace that they are expecting him to be, it could be a long, rough season for Kansas City.

Breakout Candidate

• RF Jorge Soler - Soler has struggled to really break out as a major leaguer during his three partial seasons in Chicago.  His batting average has dropped each season so far, but there are reasons for optimism for the Royals.  His on-base percentage rebounded from 2015 to 2016 and he has still exhibited quite a bit of power, increasing his home run output each season.  A simple change of scenery could be what Soler needs, moving to a park in Kauffman Stadium that is more of a hitter-friendly park.  He will also get more opportunity to play with the Royals as their everyday right fielder in contrast to Chicago, where he was part of a platoon.

Regression Candidate

• SP Jason Hammel - On the surface, Hammel pitched well for the Cubs in 2016, going 15-10 in 30 starts and had an ERA of 3.83, striking out 144 batters to just 53 walks.  However, looking at Hammel's underlying numbers shows that he didn't pitch as well as his ERA shows.  His FIP, a metric used to remove fielding influences, was 4.48 showing that he didn't pitch as well as his ERA looks.  His WHIP was also 1.206, a number that is quite high.  Moving from the National to American League probably won't help these numbers, as the American League is typically the more difficult league to pitch in.

Bounceback Candidate

• 1B Eric Hosmer - I feel that when people think of Hosmer, the player they have in mind is actually Freddie Freeman instead of Hosmer.  Hosmer isn't as good of a hitter, on-base machine, or power hitter as fans believe him to be.  That being said, it doesn't mean that he hasn't been valuable in his career.  He actually showed more power in 2016 than he ever has before, hitting 25 home runs and driving in 104 runs, both career highs.  As a result, though, his batting average dropped from .297 in 2015 to .266 in 2016 and he became less valuable as an overall hitter.  He has shown great potential to be an above average big league hitter in the past and he needs to return to that to be the driving force in the Royals lineup.

Season Outlook

• This could very well be the last season in which the Royals have a chance at returning to the World Series for sometime.  Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, Lorenzo Cain, and Alcides Escobar are all free agents next offseason and the Royals are a small market team with not a lot of money to spend in free agency.  There have apparently been discussions between the team and Hosmer on reaching an extension, but it seems like a long shot that they'll be able to keep him after this season.  The franchise also has one of the worst farm systems in baseball now, the product of their former top prospects graduating to the majors and by trading them away for playoff rentals, move that were successful considering they won a World Series.  Because of all of these elements I think it is time for the Royals front office to seriously consider tearing down their roster and rebuilding.  If they decided to move on from Hosmer, Moustakas, Cain, and Escobar and looked for prospects in return, the Royals could rebound their farm system similar to how the Yankees and White Sox have.  I'm concerned that if they keep their current roster intact and lose these players via free agency next offseason, that they could be in the basement of the league for several years again.  Small market teams like the Royals constantly have to be thinking about the future and restructuring their roster.  Perhaps they will wait until the trade deadline and see how the team is performing before making major decisions with the roster. If that is the case, I think they'll be sellers at the deadline since their roster isn't good enough to make the playoffs this season.  They are the third most talented team in their own division and probably quite a bit behind the Tigers and Indians and that doesn't even include the rest of the American League.  I don't think making the playoffs as a Wild Card team is a true possibility this season and think it could be a long year for the Royals.

Predictions

• Finishing under .500 is a real possibility for the Royals this season and I think they will end up winning around 78 games, but that is probably the ceiling for this roster group.

*All stats and information came from baseball-reference.com, mlb.com, espn.com, spotrac.com, fangraphs.com, baseballprospectus.com, baseballamerica.com, and rosterresource.com