MLB Season Preview - Chicago Cubs

2016 Record: 103-58	Manager: Joe Maddon (2014)
1st in Division	General Manager: Jed Hoyer (2011) President: Theo Epstein (2011)
Beat San Francisco in the NLDS 3-1 Beat the Dodgers in the NLCS 4-2 Beat Cleveland in the World Series 4-3	AAA Affiliate: Iowa Cubs AA Affiliate: Tennessee Smokies

News

• C David Ross retired
• Acquired RP Wade Davis from Kansas City for OF Jorge Soler
• Acquired P Caleb Smith from Milwaukee for cash

Players Lost in the Offseason

POS.	Player	New Team	Contract
RP	Aroldis Chapman	New York Yankees	5 years, $86 million
CF	Dexter Fowler	St. Louis Cardinals	5 years, $82.5 million
P	Travis Wood	Kansas City Royals	2 years, $12 million
SP	Jason Hammel	Kansas City Royals	2 years, $12 million
RP	Joe Smith	Toronto Blue Jays	1 year, $3 million
LF	Chris Coghlan	Philadelphia Phillies	1 year, $3 million
P	Trevor Cahill	San Diego Padres	1 year, $1.75 million

Incoming Free Agents

POS.	Player	Old Team	Contract
CF	Jon Jay	San Diego Padres	1 year, $8 million
SP	Brett Anderson	Los Angeles Dodgers	1 year, $3.5 million
RP	Koji Uehara	Boston Red Sox	1 year, $6 million
RP	Brian Duensing	Baltimore Orioles	1 year, $2 million

Top Prospects

• OF Eloy Jimenez - MLB.com (13), BA (14), BP (9)
• UT Ian Happ - MLB.com (28), BA (63), BP (54)
• OF Albert Almora - MLB.com (75), BA (64), BP (77)
• RHP Dylan Cease - MLB.com (77), BA (97)
• 3B/1B Jeimer Candelario - MLB.com (96)
• RHP Trevor Clifton - BP (87)

Projected Lineup

Order	POS	Number	Bats	Name	Age
1	LF	12	L	Kyle Schwarber	24
2	3B	17	R	Kris Bryant	25
3	1B	44	L	Anthony Rizzo	27
4	2B	18	S	Ben Zobrist	35
5	SS	27	R	Addison Russell	23
6	RF	22	L	Jason Heyward	27
7	C	40	R	Willson Contreras	24
8	CF	30	L	Jon Jay	32
Bench	C	47	L	Miguel Montero	33
Bench	IF	9	R	Javier Baez	24
Bench	IF	2	L	Tommy La Stella	28
Bench	OF	5	R	Albert Almora Jr.	22

Projected Pitching Staff

Role	POS	Number	Throws	Name	Age
1	SP	34	L	Jon Lester	33
2	SP	49	R	Jake Arrieta	31
3	SP	28	R	Kyle Hendricks	27
4	SP	41	R	John Lackey	38
5	SP	37	L	Brett Anderson	29
LR	RP	38	L	Mike Montgomery	27
MID	RP	32	L	Brian Duensing	34
MID	RP	52	R	Justin Grimm	28
MID	RP	46	R	Pedro Strop	31
MID	RP	6	R	Carl Edwards Jr.	25
SU	RP	19	R	Koji Uehara	41
SU	RP	56	R	Hector Rondon	29
CL	RP	71	R	Wade Davis	31

Most Important Player

• 1B Anthony Rizzo - Kris Bryant may have been the MVP Award winner last season but without Rizzo hitting behind him as protection, Bryant wouldn't have had as good of a season.  Rizzo is one of the best pure hitters in the game today, one of the best defensive first basemen, and is still just 27.  In 2016, Rizzo managed to turn in a .292/.385/.544 slashline, hit 32 home runs, and drove in 109 runs, finishing fourth in N.L. MVP voting.  In a lineup containing quality MLB hitters, both contact and power hitters, one through nine, Rizzo is the hitter most important to the Cubs success.

Breakout Candidate

• LF/C Kyle Schwarber - So 2017 is actually going to be Schwarber's third season in the majors but has only had limited playing experience due to getting a call up late in the year in 2015 and enduring a serious injury at the beginning of the 2016 season.  In his limited playing time, Schwarber has been quite good, batting .246 with 11 home runs and 43 RBIs in 2015 but emerged last postseason after returning from his injury, when he batted .412 over five games.  He is absolutely an MLB-ready player but the question will be whether or not he can get quality playing time this season.  He was drafted as a catcher, the position at which he played the most in the minors, but he will be third on the depth chart at the majors.  He has also played in left field but is not athletic enough to patrol an outfield position full-time.  Most likely the path to him finding significant playing time will either be in an outfield platoon or if one of Willson Contreras or Miguel Montero get hurt at catcher.  He is definitely best suited to play for an American League team where he could DH but there doesn't seem like there is much of a chance that the Cubs trade him.

Regression Candidate

• SP Kyle Hendricks - Hendricks has exhibited the skillset to be a quality MLB pitcher throughout his career but has never pitched as well as he did in 2016.  He made the move from being a good pitcher to near elite, throwing 190 innings, a career high, went 16-8, and had a 2.13 ERA to lead the National League en route to a third place finish in N.L. Cy Young Award voting.  Regardless of how well he pitched, there are underlying numbers that hint at the possibility of a regression in 2016.  His FIP was a full run higher (3.20) than his ERA, an indication that the defense behind him played a big factor in last season's success.  One number that expresses this is that his Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP) was his lowest (.250) since his first season in Low A ball when it was a .244.  In 2015 this number was .296 so he lowered it nearly 50 points, not an insignificant number.  Does this necessarily mean that he will regress in 2017? Not exactly, but his BABIP in addition with his inflated FIP in relation to his ERA could be signs that he will regress back to his career averages.

Bounceback Candidate

• RF Jason Heyward - A lot has been made about the lack of hitting ability exhibited by Heyward in recent seasons and that was especially true in 2016.  Batting just .230, with 7 home runs, 49 RBIs, and 11 steals over 142 games just isn't good enough regardless of how good his defense is. I actually forgot how good of a season Heyward had his one year in St. Louis before signing with the Cubs last offseason and would like to see him return to those numbers.  2015 was one of, if not the best, season Heyward has had in the majors while 2016 was his worst season.  2015 is not that far back and I think that he could absolutely bounce back and return to the quality of player he has shown he is capable of being.

Season Outlook

• Last season the Cubs broke their 108 year World Series drought with a team that has been looked towards by the organization for several years.  The team even arrived a little bit early considering the age of their core members.  They will return basically the same roster as last season's team except for Dexter Fowler, Jason Hammel, Travis Wood, and David Ross but they are set up perfectly to overcome these losses.  They have the potential to be an even better team than the 2016 version considering the continued development of their young players, including Kyle Schwarber, Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Addison Russell, Willson Contreras, and Javier Baez.  They should have an amazing offense but manager Joe Maddon will need to do some roster manipulation in order to give everyone playing time, especially in the outfield.  Although they lost Fowler in the offseason, they added Jon Jay, a decision I personally question.  I'm surprised they didn't just move Heyward to center field, play Zobrist in right field, allowing Baez to play second, and then play Schwarber in left.  Instead, the Cubs will field a platoon-heavy lineup, especially against left-handed pitchers.  Regardless of how Maddon manages his team, he will have plenty of depth to combat injuries and to rotate in through the lineup.  If the Cubs have any weaknesses that I see, it has to be the back end of their rotation, where they signed veteran lefty Brett Anderson to replace Jason Hammel and Travis Wood.  Hopefully Anderson is able to comeback from injury and be a strong foundation at the end of the Cubs' rotation.  I also question their bullpen where they are going to rely on veteran Koji Uehara as one of their setup men and only have two lefties, neither of whom are considered "lights out." They did solidify their closer situation after losing Aroldis Chapman by acquiring Wade Davis, one of the most dominant relievers in baseball.  A brief glimpse towards the future: I wonder what the Cubs front office is going to do about the team's starting rotation after this season since John Lackey and Jake Arrieta are both free agents after this season and they don't have any real high end pitching prospects coming through the system.  But anyway, that's the future, and back to the presence.  Since they won the World Series this season, are still a really young team, and return nearly the same roster as last season, anything short of winning again in 2017 will be considered a letdown.

Predictions

• The Cubs won 103 games last season with a roster that should be even better in 2017.  However, they were also a fairly healthy team that seems almost guaranteed to endure more injuries this season.  It will also be interesting to see if Kyle Schwarber can be the same quality of leadoff hitter as Fowler was last season and if he can't be, that could make a big difference.  I project that they will still win 100 games this season, running away with the N.L. Central.

*All stats and information came from baseball-reference.com, mlb.com, espn.com, spotrac.com, fangraphs.com, baseballprospectus.com, baseballamerica.com, and rosterresource.com