MLB Season Preview - Pittsburgh Pirates

2016 Record: 78-82-1	Manager: Clint Hurdle (2010)
3rd in Division	General Manager: David Stearns (2007)
Failed to make the playoffs	AAA Affiliate: Indianapolis Indians AA Affiliate: Altoona Curve

News

• Acquired INF Phil Gosselin from Arizona for RHP Frank Duncan
• Acquired RHP Pat Light from Minnesota for a player to be named later or cash
• Re-signed RHP Ivan Nova to a 3 year, $26 million deal

Players Lost in the Offseason

POS.	Player	New Team	Contract
UT	Sean Rodriguez	Atlanta Braves	2 years, $11.5 million
OF	Matt Joyce	Oakland Athletics	2 years, $11 million
P	Jeff Locke	Miami Marlins	1 year, $3 million

Incoming Free Agents

POS.	Player	Old Team	Contract
RP	Daniel Hudson	Arizona Diamondbacks	2 years, $11 million

Top Prospects

• RHP Tyler Glasnow - MLB.com (8), BA (23), BP (14)
• OF Austin Meadows - MLB.com (9), BA (6), BP (6)
• 1B/OF Josh Bell - MLB.com (27), BA (35), BP (25)
• RHP Mitch Keller - MLB.com (48), BA (22), BP (27)
• SS Kevin Newman - MLB.com (59), BA (55), BP (65)

Projecting Lineup

Order	POS	Number	Bats	Name	Age
1	2B	5	R	Josh Harrison	29
2	1B	55	S	Josh Bell	24
3	RF	22	R	Andrew McCutchen	30
4	CF	6	R	Starling Marte	28
5	LF	25	L	Gregory Polanco	25
6	3B	16	R	Jung-ho Kang	29
7	C	29	R	Francisco Cervelli	31
8	SS	10	R	Jordy Mercer	30
Bench	C	19	R	Chris Stewart	35
Bench	1B/OF	28	L	John Jaso	33
Bench	3B/1B	23	R	David Freese	33
Bench	IF	37	S	Alen Hanson	24
Bench	UT	26	L	Adam Frazier	25

Projected Pitching Staff

Role	POS	Number	Throws	Name	Age
1	SP	45	R	Gerrit Cole	26
2	SP	50	R	Jameson Taillon	25
3	SP	39	R	Chad Kuhl	24
4	SP	46	R	Ivan Nova	30
5	SP	34	R	Drew Hutchison	26
LR	RP	38	L	Wade LeBlanc	32
MID	RP	48	R	Jared Hughes	31
MID	RP	59	L	Antonio Bastardo	31
MID	RP	12	R	Juan Nicasio	30
SU	RP	73	L	Felipe Rivero	25
SU	RP	41	R	Daniel Hudson	30
CL	RP	44	L	Tony Watson	31

Most Important Player

• SP Gerrit Cole - Gerrit Cole, despite being drafted first overall in the 2011 draft, has yet to really take the reins as the ace of the Pirates' pitching staff.  He has pitched well at times but has only pitched over 200 innings once, in 2015.  Cole also received Cy Young Award votes that season, finishing fourth, but regressed severely in 2016.  He was injured and only made 21 starts, throwing just 116 innings, and had an ERA of 3.88.  His FIP was actually better than his ERA, at 3.33 and perhaps his season wasn't as bad as it initially looks.  He needs to really step forward in 2017, begin working towards his first free agent contract, and be the ace the Pirates need. Any team success in 2017 will be largely based on how well Cole pitches.

Breakout Candidate

• 1B Josh Bell - Bell has shown the ability to hit for contact and get on-base in the minors and in his brief stint in the majors last season.  In 2016 with Pittsburgh, he batted .273, drove in 19 runs, struck out 21 times, and walked 19 times.  He didn't hit for power much in his 45 major league games but has shown that area of his game in the minors.  He will enter 2017 fighting for time as the Pirates starting first baseman but could also see playing time in the outfield.  If there is one drawback to Bell's abilities it is in the field where he looks to develop into at least an average defensive first baseman.  Bell underwent knee surgery in February to remove an item from his leg and was questionable to start the season on time but he is already appearing in Spring Training games so that shouldn't be a concern.  I think that considering Bell is a switch hitter and should see quality playing time at first base, he should have every opportunity to break out in 2017, something the Pirates will need.

Regression Candidate

• No one really had such a good season that it can't be repeated

Bounceback Candidate

• RF Andrew McCutchen - McCutchen was at the center of a lot of trade speculation this offseason and at one point it seemed like a foregone conclusion that he was going to be traded. The problem was that he was coming off the worst season of his career, batting just .243, with 24 home runs, and just 79 RBIs, despite playing a full season except for rest days.  One bright side is that he turned his season around towards the end of the year and appeared to have found his game again.  McCutchen will also make the move from center field, a position he has played his entire career, to right field in favor of the more defensively responsible Starling Marte.  Not having to worry about defense should give McCutchen ample opportunity to focus on finding his hitting tool again, something I think he is destined to do.

Season Outlook

• After making the playoffs three consecutive seasons from 2013 to 2015 and two consecutive losses in the N.L. Wild Card game, the Pirates missed the playoffs in 2016.  They had basically the same roster as they did in 2015 but several key players experienced some serious regressions. Now, entering 2017, there is a lot of questions regarding the direction of the franchise and what their goal is this season.  They still have one of the best farm systems in baseball with numerous prospects waiting to take spots on the major league team, including Austin Meadows in the outfield, Tyler Glasnow and Mitch Keller in the rotation, and Kevin Newman at shortstop.  There aren't spots available yet in the majors for the majority of these prospects but the future looks incredibly bright for the franchise.  The Pirates also have several quality and young players on their roster that will be a major part of the team's future such as Starling Marte, Gregory Polanco, and Josh Bell.  I think that 2017 should be a season in which they take a step back, by focusing on trading away players who aren't a part of their future and continuing to add to their prospect pool.  Andrew McCutchen has already been the focus of numerous trade conversations this offseason and there is a strong chance he will be moved this season if he bounces back.  Gerrit Cole is another player who I think the Pirates consider trading since he has yet to develop into a true ace and has expressed his disagreements with the team's front office regarding contract discussions.  Trading both of these players would bring back quality prospects plus open up a roster spot for Austin Meadows in the outfield.  Cole could be replaced by Jameson Taillon and Tyler Glasnow, two pitchers who will be factors in the team's future. Even if the Pirates looked to be competitive in 2017, their issue is that they play in the same division as the Chicago Cubs, the reigning World Series champions and look to remain as favorites to win for several seasons.

Predictions

• The Pirates will probably be the third best team in the division this season, behind the Cubs and Cardinals, but I think they will improve on their 2016 record.  I think they will be an above .500 team, but just barely by going 82-80.

*All stats and information came from baseball-reference.com, mlb.com, espn.com, spotrac.com, fangraphs.com, baseballprospectus.com, baseballamerica.com, and rosterresource.com