MLB Season Preview - New York Mets

2016 Record: 87-75	Manager: Terry Collins (2010)
2nd  in Division	General Manager: Sandy Alderson (2010)
Lost to the Giants in the N.L. Wild Card Game	AAA Affiliate: Last Vegas 51s AA Affiliate: Binghamton Rumble Ponies

News

• Re-signed OF Yoenis Cespedes to a 4 year, $110 million deal
• Re-signed RP Jerry Blevins to a 1 year, $6.5 million deal with a club option for 2018

Players Lost in the Offseason

POS.	Player	New Team	Contract
1B	James Loney	Texas Rangers	1 year, $1 million
UT	Kelly Johnson	Free Agent	1 year, $2 million
OF	Alejandro De Aza	Oakland Athletics	1 year, $1.75 million
SP	Bartolo Colon	Atlanta Braves	1 year, $12.5 million
P	Jonathan Niese	New York Yankees	1 year, $1.25 million

Incoming Free Agents

• None

Top Prospects

• SS Amed Rosario - MLB.com (11), BA (8). BP (8)
• 1B Dominic Smith - MLB.com (55), BA (71)
• RHP Justin Dunn - BA (100)
• RHP Robert Gsellman - BP (17)
• LHP Thomas Szapucki - BP (69)

Projected Lineup

Order	POS	Number	Bats	Name	Age
1	CF	3	L	Curtis Granderson	35
2	3B	5	R	David Wright	34
3	LF	52	R	Yoenis Cespedes	31
4	RF	19	L	Jay Bruce	29
5	2B	20	S	Neil Walker	31
6	SS	13	S	Asdrubal Cabrera	31
7	1B	21	L	Lucas Duda	31
8	C	18	R	Travis d’Arnaud	28
Bench	C	44	R	Rene Rivera	33
Bench	IF	4	R	Wilmer Flores	25
Bench	UT	54	R	T.J. Rivera	28
Bench	UT	7	S	Jose Reyes	33
Bench	OF	12	R	Juan Lagares	27

Projected Pitching Staff

Role	POS	Number	Throws	Name	Age
1	SP	34	R	Noah Syndergaard	24
2	SP	48	R	Jacob deGrom	28
3	SP	33	R	Matt Harvey	27
4	SP	32	L	Steven Matz	25
5	SP	45	R	Zack Wheeler	26
LR	RP	36	L	Sean Gilmartin	26
MID	RP	66	L	Josh Edgin	30
MID	RP	47	R	Hansel Robles	26
MID	RP	39	L	Jerry Blevins	33
SU	RP	59	R	Fernando Salas	31
SU	RP	43	R	Addison Reed	28
CL	RP	27	R	Jeurys Familia	27

Most Important Player

• OF Yoenis Cespedes - Without Cespedes in their lineup, the Mets' offense would be in a lot of trouble.  He is so important to the team that when he opted out of his contract after last season, the front office gave him the team's most lucrative free agent contract, one that will keep him in New York for four years.  Even though he regressed slightly from his 2015 season, a year he split between Detroit and New York, Cespedes was still the Mets best, and most valuable, hitter.  He will continue to have to be that player this season considering the quality, or lack thereof, of the rest of the team's lineup.  

Breakout Candidate

• SP Steven Matz - Matz is already an established and successful major league pitcher but is really the only Met who fits this category.  They have no one on offense that is young and has the chance to breakout in 2017 (Michael Conforto could but his playing time is in question with their crowded outfield) and the rest of the pitching rotation have already experienced their breakouts.  Matz has just 28 starts in the majors under his belt but has pitched really well in those starts and should be an anchor in their rotation over the course of a full season.  With the questions surrounding Matt Harvey's health and his looming free agency, Matz has the chance to become the next great starter in a line of excellent Mets' pitchers.

Regression Candidate

• OF Curtis Granderson - Granderson will be 36 before the season and has seen his play decline in recent seasons.  Over the past two seasons his batting average has gone from .259 in 2015 to just .237 last year.  He has reestablished his power game in the past two seasons, however, hitting 26 and 30 home runs respectively, but is not driving in runs beyond these, with just 59 RBIs in 2016. In the field, he has regressed as a fielder, amassing just 3 defensive runs saved in 2016, compared to 11 saves in 2015.  He has surprisingly remained healthy later in his career, appearing in 155, 157, and 150 games the past three seasons.  Who knows how long that will continue as he ages and he plays in the National League where there is no designated hitter and the Mets have a crowded outfield.

Bounceback Candidate

• SP Matt Harvey - Harvey has been an excellent pitcher for the majority of his young career, compiling a 2.94 ERA in 82 career major league starts.  Last season his ERA blew all the way up to 4.86 and he made only 17 starts before undergoing season-ending surgery as a result of being diagnosed with thoracic outlet syndrome.  Thoracic outlet syndrome is a condition that affects a person's nerves and veins in the arm and neck region and could potentially be career-threatening for Harvey.  He has said that he believes he will be able to return to his pre-2016 form and I am choosing to believe in this statement.  He has come back from injury before, having undergone Tommy John Surgery and missing all of the 2014 season before pitching well in 2015.  Harvey is still relatively young (will turn 28 before the season starts) but he has had a lot of trauma to his pitching arm, yet I think he will be able to rejuvenate his career.

Season Outlook

• The Mets took a step back in 2016 from the pennant-winning team they had in 2015 as they lost in the N.L. Wild Card Game to the Giants last season.  Part of the reason they didn't advance as far was because of the injuries their starting rotation dealt with as only Bartolo Colon and Noah Syndergaard made 30 starts.  They also faced adversity in the field with Travis d'Arnaud, Neil Walker, Lucas Duda, and David Wright all missing at least 45 games.  This season they have to expect to be healthier which will go a long way in determining their success.  There will no longer be the veteran presence of Bartolo Colon in the rotation and the staff will include pitchers all age 28 or younger.  That being said, even without a "veteran presence," this rotation will still be one of the best in the majors and doesn't have any real weaknesses unless a starter gets hurt.  They are largely going with the same bullpen and lineup that they had to end the 2016 season and will rely on returning players to improve in 2017.  One of these players is most certainly third baseman David Wright, who has played a total of 75 games the last two seasons. 2015 proved that Wright could still hit and it will be interesting to see if he can return to that form and provide a quality bat in the Mets lineup.  This offseason also saw the team's front office give out the richest free agency deal in team history, to Yoenis Cespedes, I think largely out of fear of losing him.  If he weren't in their lineup, their offense would struggle greatly and lack any real depth.  Instead, with Cespedes, they have a solid lineup, although top heavy, but one that has a nice balance of right-handed and left-handed batters.  Their issue though, is by       re-signing Cespedes, they now have four "starting" outfielders for three positions with Curtis Granderson, Michael Conforto, and Jay Bruce all vying for playing time in addition to Cespedes.  The logical option would be to trade away Bruce or Granderson but it has been written that their asking price on Bruce at least is very high.  Regardless, this offense has the chance to score a decent amount of runs, but the team in general will be led by their elite pitching rotation that should be able to get deep into most games. 

Predictions

• The good news for the Mets right now is that they are almost assured to finish no worse than second in the N.L. East considering the talent in their rotation.  The question will be whether or not they can manage to wrestle the division crown away from Washington or at least get back into the N.L. Wild Card Game.  If their pitching stays healthy and Harvey can bounce back from his health scare, then they should absolutely be a playoff team, and a tough one to eliminate at that.  I think that the Mets will win 87 games this season, finishing just behind Washington but still making the playoffs as a Wild Card team.

*All stats and information came from baseball-reference.com, mlb.com, espn.com, spotrac.com, fangraphs.com, baseballprospectus.com, baseballamerica.com, and rosterresource.com