MLB Season Preview - Baltimore Orioles

2016 Record: 89-73	Manager: Buck Showalter (2010)
T-2nd in Division	General Manager: Dan Duquette (2011)
Lost to Toronto in A.L. Wild Card Game	AAA Affiliate: Norfolk Tides AA Affiliate: Bowie Baysox

News

• Acquired RP Logan Verrett from the Mets for cash
• Acquired RF Seth Smith from Seattle for SP Yovani Gallardo
• Re-signed OF/DH Mark Trumbo to a 3 year, $37.5 million deal

Players Lost in the Offseason

POS.	Player	New Team	Contract
C	Matt Wieters	Free Agent
DH	Pedro Alvarez	Free Agent
UT	Steve Pearce	Toronto Blue Jays	2 years, $12.5 million
OF	Michael Bourn	Free Agent
OF	Nolan Reimold	Free Agent
OF	Drew Stubbs	Minnesota Twins
RP	Brian Duensing	Chicago Cubs	1 year, $2 million
RP	Tommy Hunter	Free Agent
P	Vance Worley	Washington Nationals	1 year, $1 million

Incoming Free Agents

POS.	Player	Old Team	Contract
C	Welington Castillo	Arizona Diamondbacks	2 years, $13 million

Top Prospects

• C Chance Sisco - BA (57), BP (76)

Projected Lineup

Order	POS	Number	Bats	Name	Age
1	CF	10	R	Adam Jones	31
2	RF	12	L	Seth Smith	34
3	3B	13	R	Manny Machado	24
4	1B	19	L	Chris Davis	30
5	DH	45	R	Mark Trumbo	31
6	2B	6	R	Jonathan Schoop	25
7	C	29	R	Wellington Castillo	29
8	SS	2	R	J.J. Hardy	34
9	LF	25	L	Hyun so Kim	29
Bench	C	36	R	Caleb Joseph	30
Bench	1B/OF	34	R	Christian Walker	25
Bench	UT	3	L	Ryan Flaherty	30
Bench	OF	23	R	Joey Rickard	25

Projected Pitching Staff

Role	POS	Number	Throws	Name	Age
1	SP	37	R	Dylan Bundy	24
2	SP	30	R	Chris Tilman	28
3	SP	39	R	Kevin Gausman	26
4	SP	38	L	Wade Miley	30
5	SP	31	R	Ubaldo Jimenez	33
LR	RP	66	L	T.J. McFarland	27
MID	RP	71	R	Oliver Drake	30
MID	RP	58	L	Donnie Hunt	26
MID	RP	60	R	Mychal Givens	26
SU	RP	56	R	Darren O’Day	34
SU	RP	35	R	Brad Brach	30
CL	RP	53	L	Zach Britton	29

Most Important Player

• SP Kevin Gausman - While Manny Machado is Baltimore's best player, even if he had a down season the Orioles have a strong enough offense to overcome that.  Gausman, however, is supposed to be the Orioles' ace and had a very good season last year, starting 30 games with a 3.61 ERA.  He didn't convert many of his starts to wins (9) but did have 18 quality starts and he was the Orioles' best starting pitcher all season long.  For Baltimore to be successful this season and for them to get back to the playoffs, they will need him to build off of last season's performance and be the team's true number one starter.

Regression Candidate

• DH/RF Mark Trumbo - Trumbo had a career season last year, leading the league in home runs with 47 and driving in over 100 runs.  2016 was the best season of his career, and a season in which he played on a one-year contract.  He made himself into one of the most sought-after free agents this offseason and the Orioles decided to bring him back on a three-year deal.  While I don't doubt his skillset, I do think that a repeat performance of last season in 2017 seems highly unlikely considering his strikeout rate.  He's a boom or bust guy and those kinds of players are hard to count on.

Breakout Candidate

• 2B Jonathan Schoop - During his age-24 season last year, Schoop had the best season of his brief career, eclipsing the 25 home run mark and driving in 82 runs, both career highs.  There appears to be even more potential to Schoop and I think that he could have an even better season this year. One area that he could improve in is the contact department as he struck out 137 times last year and finished with just a .267 batting average.

Bounceback Candidate

• SS J.J. Hardy - Hardy has had three consecutive down seasons since 2013 when he hit 25 home runs and appeared in 159 games.  Last season he only played in 115 games, hit just 9 home runs, and only drove in 48 runs.  Although he is on the backside of his career (he will turn 35 this August) Hardy should still have something left in his career.  I doubt that he will return to a 20 plus home run hitter, but the Orioles need him to still be productive for them to be competitive this season.

Season Outlook

• Baltimore made the A.L. Wild Card Game last season, losing to Toronto in extra innings.  They return largely the same roster this season and will look to squeeze at least one more year of competitiveness out of this roster, which could look wildly different in two seasons after Machado becomes a free agent.  They have an excellent lineup once again after re-signing Trumbo to be their everyday DH.  They are not a contact hitting team, however, but will hit a lot of home runs with five players returning who hit at least 25 home runs last season.  For the Orioles to be playoff team again this season, they will need their pitching staff to perform at a very high level.  Their bullpen should be able to accomplish this, with both Zach Britton and Brad Brach at the back end after both having all-star seasons last year.  Their pitching rotation is the staff's question mark and will need Gausman and Dylan Bundy to emerge as front-line starters for the Orioles to have much of a chance at winning the division this season.

Predictions

• I think that the Orioles will take a significant step back this season compared to 2016.  Too many things broke their way last year, including injuries and the eliteness of their bullpen.  The team's starting rotation doesn't seem good enough to keep the team in enough games despite their high-powered offense.  I figure that the Orioles will be closer to a .500 team this season and miss the playoffs since the A.L. East probably won't get both Wild Card teams again this season.

*All stats and information came from baseball-reference.com, mlb.com, espn.com, spotrac.com, baseballamerica.com, baseballprospectus.com, fangraphs.com, and rosterresource.com