MLB Season Preview - Detroit Tigers

2016 Record: 86-75	Manager: Brad Ausmus (2013)
2nd in Division	General Manager: Al Avila (2015)
Failed to make the playoffs	AAA Affiliate: Toledo Mud Hens AA Affiliate: Erie SeaWolves

News

• Traded OF Cameron Maybin to the Angels for P Victor Alcantara
• Acquired OF Mikie Mahtook from Tampa Bay for a player to be named later or cash considerations

Players Lost in the Offseason

POS.	Player	New Team	Contract
C	Jarrod Saltalamacchia	Toronto Blue Jays	1 year, $1.25 million
SS	Erick Aybar	San Diego Padres

Incoming Free Agents

POS.	Player	Old Team	Contract
C	Alex Avila	Chicago White Sox	1 year, $2 million

Top Prospects

• RHP Matt Manning - MLB.com (74), BA (61), BP (88)

Projected Lineup

Order	POS	Number	Bats	Name	Age
1	2B	3	R	Ian Kinsler	34
2	RF	28	R	J.D. Martinez	29
3	1B	24	R	Miguel Cabrera	33
4	DH	41	S	Victor Martinez	38
5	LF	8	R	Justin Upton	29
6	3B	9	R	Nick Castellanos	25
7	CF	18	L	Tyler Collins	26
8	C	34	R	James McCann	26
9	SS	1	R	Jose Iglesias	27
Bench	C	31	L	Alex Avila	30
Bench	UT	17	S	Andrew Romine	31
Bench	OF	15	R	Mikie Mahtook	27
Bench	OF	33	L	Steven Moya	25

Projected Pitching Staff

Role	POS	Number	Throws	Name	Age
1	SP	35	R	Justin Verlander	34
2	SP	32	R	Michael Fulmer	24
3	SP	27	R	Jordan Zimmermann	30
4	SP	19	R	Anibal Sanchez	33
5	SP	44	L	Daniel Norris	23
LR	RP	37	R	Mike Pelfrey	33
MID	RP	68	L	Daniel Stumpf	26
MID	RP	21	R	Mark Lowe	33
MID	RP	43	R	Bruce Rondon	26
SU	RP	30	R	Alex Wilson	30
SU	RP	38	L	Justin Wilson	29
CL	RP	57	R	Francisco Rodriguez	35

Most Important Player

• SP Justin Verlander - I nearly chose Miguel Cabrera for this but considering the other pieces in the Tigers' lineup and the question marks surrounding the team's pitching rotation, I went with staff ace Justin Verlander.  Verlander pitched well enough to win the A.L. Cy Young Award last season, just losing out in controversial fashion.  For the Tigers to have any chance at making the playoffs this season they will need Verlander to have a repeat performance and be a true ace of the staff.

Breakout Candidate

• SP Daniel Norris - Norris, who will turn 24 at the beginning of the season, will have the opportunity to be a full-time major league starter for the first time in his career.  In his 27 big league starts, he has pitched well to the tune of a 3.64 ERA and 120 strikeouts to just 46 walks. If he pitches well, he could help provide depth to the back end of the Tigers' rotation that they have needed, especially considering how Anibal Sanchez and Jordan Zimmermann pitched last season.

Regression Candidate

• DH Victor Martinez - Martinez is now 38, and although he no longer plays in the field much, the seasons he spent at catcher, have to catch up to him at somepoint.  He still appeared in 154 games last season, and probably only missed the games played in National League ballparks, and managed to hit .289.  I have no reason to doubt Martinez and don't believe that he will necessarily regress in 2017, but some season he will begin his regression.

Bounceback Candidate

• SP Jordan Zimmermann - 2016 was Zimmermann's first season in the American League and struggled in the first year of the five year, $110 million contract he signed last offseason.  He made just 18 starts and had an ERA of 4.87, much higher than his career average.  Hopefully he'll be able to stay healthy in 2017 and, having gotten used to pitching in the American League, will be able to return to the successes he had with the Nationals.

Season Outlook

• There were a lot of questions about whether or not the Tigers were going to sell off some of their expensive contracts this offseason.  These included Ian Kinsler, J.D. Martinez, and even Miguel Cabrera.  None of this happened, however, and their roster remains generally the same as it was in 2016 when they won 86 games and narrowly missed out on making the Wild Card.  They should get a boost in 2017 from proven veterans returning to career averages, plus the addition of Daniel Norris as a full-time starter in the rotation.  The problem for Detroit is that they play in the same division as the two teams who have won the A.L. pennant each of the past three seasons.  While letting go of some of their expensive contracts would have been beneficial, this roster is designed to win in the present as Cabrera, Kinsler, Victor Martinez, and Justin Verlander are all over the age of 30 and approaching the ends of their careers.  They don't have the luxury of taking a brief step back in order to re-tool since their roster age is as old as it is and the fact that their farm system is probably in the bottom ten in the league.  

Predictions

• If the team gets the boost from returning players that I think they will and other veterans continue to perform, I think that Detroit is a borderline playoff team once again.  I think that an 85 win season is possible again, projecting more wins than Fangraphs is.  I still think they will be a Wild Card team in 2017.

*All stats and information came from baseball-reference.com, mlb.com, espn.com, spotrac.com, fangraphs.com, baseballprospectus.com, baseballamerica.com, and rosterresource.com