MLB Season Preview - Tampa Bay Rays

2016 Record: 68-94	Manager: Kevin Cash (2014)
5th  in Division	General Manager: Matt Silverman (2014)
Failed to make the playoffs	AAA Affiliate: Durham Bulls AA Affiliate: Trenton Thunder

News

• Traded 2B Logan Forsythe to the Dodgers for P Jose De Leon
• Traded SP Drew Smyly to Seattle for IF Carlos Vargas, P Ryan Yarbrough, and OF Mallex Smith

Players Lost in the Offseason

POS.	Player	New Team	Contract
SS	Alexei Ramirez	Free Agent
RP	Kevin Jepsen	Arizona Diamondbacks	1 year, $2.25 million

Incoming Free Agents

POS.	Player	Old Team	Contract
LF	Colby Rasmus	Houston Astros	1 year, $5 million
RP	Shawn Tolleson	Texas Rangers	1 year, $1 million
C	Wilson Ramos	Washington Nationals	2 years, $12.5 million
SP	Nathan Eovaldi	New York Yankees	1 year, $2 million

Top Prospects

• SS Willy Adames - MLB.com (21), BA (10), BP (21)
• RHP Brent Honeywell - MLB.com (31), BA (30), BP (22)
• RHP Jose De Leon - MLB.com (33), BA (29), BP (38)
• OF/1B Jake Bauers - MLB.com (76), BA (70)
• 1B Casey Gillaspie - MLB.com (74)

Projected Lineup

Order	POS	Number	Bats	Name	Age
1	CF	39	L	Kevin Kiermaier	26
2	2B	13	L	Brad Miller	27
3	3B	3	R	Evan Longoria	31
4	DH	10	L	Corey Dickerson	27
5	SS	5	R	Matt Duffy	26
6	LF	28	L	Colby Rasmus	30
7	RF	20	R	Steven Souza	27
8	1B	7	L	Logan Morrison	29
9	C	19	R	Curt Casali	28
Bench	C	46	R	Luke Maile	26
Bench	IF	1	R	Tim Beckham	27
Bench	UT	2	S	Nick Franklin	26
Bench	OF/1B	-	R	Rickie Weeks Jr	34
DL	C	40	R	Wilson Ramos	29

Projected Pitching Staff

Role	POS	Number	Throws	Name	Age
1	SP	22	R	Chris Archer	28
2	SP	23	R	Jake Odorizzi	26
3	SP	53	R	Alex Cobb	29
4	SP	4	L	Blake Snell	24
5	SP	35	R	Matt Andriese	27
LR	RP	54	R	Kevin Gadea	22
MID	RP	38	R	Shawn Tolleson	29
MID	RP	30	R	Erasmo Ramirez	26
MID	RP	31	L	Xavier Cedeno	30
SU	RP	43	R	Danny Farquhar	30
SU	RP	26	R	Brad Boxberger	28
CL	RP	37	R	Alex Colome	28

Most Important Player

• SP Chris Archer - Archer in his brief career has emerged as the Rays' ace and one of the best pitchers in baseball.  He had a down year last season and the Rays struggled to win games as a result. For them to have any chance at being competitive in the A.L. East this season, Archer will have to be stellar and pitch like he did in his first three full seasons in the majors.  The team's starting rotation has the potential to be good, but is young, and Archer will be one of their more experienced pitchers.

Breakout Candidate

• SP Blake Snell - Snell was one of the most highly-touted prospects in all of baseball before last season and he pitched fairly well in his 19 starts for the Rays to the tune of a 3.54 ERA, striking out 98 batters.  There is certainly more that Snell has left to show considering how well he pitched in the minors before getting his big league call-up.  He has the potential to emerge alongside Archer as a great 1-2 punch at the top of the Rays' rotation.

Regression Candidate

• 2B Brad Miller - Miller had an interesting season last year, as his batting average and on-base percentage decreased from his 2015 numbers, but he found a level of power that hadn't been tapped into before.  He hit 30 home runs in 2016, the first time he hit more than 15 in a season, and drove in 81 runs in his first season with the Rays.  It's hard to tell if the power stroke he found last season is reality or not, but it seems likely that he will experience some form of regression in 2017.

Bounceback Candidate

• SP Chris Archer - As mentioned above, Archer is the Rays' best starting pitcher but had a down year last season.  His 4.02 ERA was the highest in his career since he became a major league regular in 2013 and his previous highest ERA was just a 3.33.  Even his 2016 ERA was a bit misleading as his FIP was 3.81 and he certainly pitched better in the second half of the season. I think that Archer has a great chance at getting back to normalcy and being a Cy Young Award favorite once again.

Season Outlook

• I find it really hard to figure the Tampa Bay Rays franchise out right now and what the direction of the team is.  It has been three seasons now since they have made the playoffs, which was also the last time the team had a winning record.  As a franchise, the Rays continue to struggle with dealing with a low payroll and a horrible stadium situation.  The front office will always be forced to part with young, talented players on the cusp of free agency because they will never be able to retain their services on the open market.  It is because of this that players like David Price, Ben Zobrist, and James Shields have departed Tampa during the peaks of their careers and have been replaced with Chris Archer, Alex Cobb, and Kevin Kiermaier.  The team's coaching staffs have had to be really good at making do with very little and perfecting the usage of utility players.  Manager Joe Maddon was amazing at doing this when he was coaching the team but the team has struggled since he departed after the 2014 season.  This season the Rays will have to rely on a young, but fairly talented pitching rotation that includes Archer, Jake Odorizzi, Cobb, and Blake Snell and one that should keep the team in contention for much of the season as long as everyone stays healthy.  Their lineup has the potential to be pretty good but is really top heavy and lacks depth to it.  This problem should be alleviated once catcher Wilson Ramos returns off the DL and if he can hit like he did in 2016 before getting hurt.  He will also provide a much-needed veteran presence to the pitching staff as he is considered an above average pitch framer and calls a good game.  The problem for the Rays in connection with the team's payroll struggles and park situation is that they play in a division with two of the biggest spenders in all of baseball, the Red Sox and Yankees, teams that can spend above and beyond the luxury tax threshold if they so desire.

Prediction

• I think that if the Yankees do go the route of continuing their rebuild and with the struggles of the Orioles, the Rays have a strong chance to finish third in the division.  This doesn't mean that they will make the playoffs, however, but finishing with around a .500 record should be achievable.  I predict that they will go 79-83.

*All stats and information came from baseball-reference.com, mlb.com, espn.com, spotrac.com, fangraphs.com, baseballprospectus.com, baseballamerica.com, and rosterresource.com