MLB Season Preview - Minnesota Twins

2016 Record: 59-103	Manager: Paul Molitor (2014)
5th in Division	General Manager: That Levine (2016)
Failed to make the playoffs	AAA Affiliate: Rochester Red Wings AA Affiliate: Chattanooga Lookouts

News

• Acquired RP Justin Haley from the Angels for cash

Players Lost in the Offseason

POS.	Player	New Team	Contract
3B	Trevor Plouffe	Oakland Athletics	1 year, $5.25 million
C	Kurt Suzuki	Atlanta Braves	1 year, $1.5 million
P	Tom Milone	Milwaukee Brewers	1 year, $1 million

Incoming Free Agents

POS.	Player	Old Team	Contract
C	Jason Castro	Houston Astros	3 years, $24.5 million
RP	Matt Belisle	Washington Nationals	1 year, $2.05 million
SP	Nick Tepesch	Kansas City Royals	1 year, $1 million

Top Prospects

• SS Nick Gordon - MLB.com (50), BA (60), BP (48)
• LHP Stephen Gonsalves - MLB.com (92), BA (99)
• OF Alex Kirillof - MLB.com (98)
• LHP Tyler Jay - BP (98)

Projected Lineup

Order	POS	Number	Bats	Name	Age
1	2B	2	R	Brian Dozier	29
2	SS	11	S	Jorge Polanco	23
3	1B	7	L	Joe Mauer	33
4	3B	22	R	Miguel Sano	23
5	RF	26	L	Max Kepler	24
6	DH	19	S	Kennys Vargas	26
7	C	21	L	Jason Castro	29
8	CF	25	R	Byron Buxton	23
9	LF	20	L	Eddie Rosario	25
Bench	C	12	R	John Ryan Murphy	25
Bench	IF	16	S	Ehire Adrianza	27
Bench	IF	5	S	Eduardo Escobar	28
Bench	OF	36	S	Robbie Grossman	27

Projected Pitching Staff

Role	POS	Number	Throws	Name	Age
1	SP	54	R	Ervin Santana	34
2	SP	53	L	Hector Santiago	29
3	SP	44	R	Kyle Gibson	29
4	SP	45	R	Phil Hughes	30
5	SP	17	R	Jose Berrios	22
LR	RP	58	R	Justin Haley	25
MID	RP	59	R	Michael Tonkin	27
MID	RP	55	L	Taylor Rogers	26
MID	RP	9	R	Matt Belisle	36
SU	RP	65	R	Trevor May	27
SU	RP	57	R	Ryan Pressly	28
CL	RP	57	R	Brandon Kintzler	32
DL	RP	15	L	Glen Perkins	34

Most Important Player

• 2B Brian Dozier - Dozier was the Twins' best player last season and had the best season, by far, of his big league career.  He was the only true threat in a bad Minnesota lineup last season and even received some MVP votes as a result.  There was quite a bit of discussion over the offseason surrounding the Twins possibly moving him to the Dodgers.  I am surprised that he wasn't moved since he is unlikely to repeat his 2016 season and because he is a free agent after the 2018 season, when he becomes very expensive.  Regardless, the Twins still have Dozier and he will probably either be their number two or three hitter with little protection around him.

Breakout Candidates

• All of their young players - These include outfielders Byron Buxton and Max Kepler, 3B/DH Miguel Sano, INF Jorge Polanco, and pitcher Jose Berrios.  None of these players have really managed to solidify themselves as major leaguers yet, although it has to be difficult to do so with very little talent surrounding them.  I think that this could be the year where these former top prospects all have breakout seasons in their second and third years in the majors.

Regression Candidate

• SP Ervin Santana - Santana's 3.38 ERA in 2016 was tied for the second best season of his career. His 3.81 FIP shows that his ERA isn't that far off from how well he actually pitched. Regardless of how well he pitched in 2016, he is still probably due for some regression considering his career ERA is 4.09 and he still won't have much run support.

Bounceback Season

• 1B/DH Joe Mauer - It seems like a long time ago that Mauer was hitting over .315 nearly every season, considering he has now batted below .280 for three consecutive seasons.  Last year Mauer only appeared in 134 games, with a .261 average, and just 11 home runs and 49 RBIs. He is probably still a better hitter than 2016 shows and I think he is due for a bounce back season that sees his batting average return to at least .275.  

Season Outlook

• The Twins somehow thought that they could perhaps be a playoff team in 2016 but didn't even get close to that goal.  They are probably the second worst team in baseball, only behind the Padres.  They have an incredibly young lineup with just one regular batter over the age of 30 in Joe Mauer and their pitching rotation is filled with mostly number three and four starters without an ace.  The good news is that they are a really young team full of talented players who have a lot of potential.  If these young players who are already at the majors can develop into quality big league players, plus the development of prospects still in the minors, and drafting well in future drafts, the Twins will have a good roster group probably beginning in 2018.  Right now, however, the Twins are still a bad team.

Predictions

• The Twins will only stay out of the division's basement because of the White Sox decision to tank this season.  Minnesota is probably only talented enough to win to win 70 games this season and be the third worst team in baseball.

*All stats and information came from baseball-reference.com, mlb.com, espn.com, spotrac.com, fangraphs.com, baseballprospectus.com, baseballamerica.com, and rosterresource.com