MLB Season Preview - Texas Rangers

2016 Record: 95-67	Manager: Jeff Banister (2014)
1st in Division	General Manager: Jon Daniels (2005)
Lost to Toronto in the ALDS 3-0	AAA Affiliate: Round Rock Express AA Affiliate: Frisco RoughRiders

News

• Acquired P Eddie Gamboa from Tampa Bay for a player to be named later or cash
• Acquired Ps Tyrell Jenkins and Brady Feigl from Atlanta for P Luke Jackson
• 1B/DH Prince Fielder retired
• Re-signed OF Carlos Gomez to a 1 year, $11.5 million deal

Players Lost in the Offseason

POS.	Player	New Team	Contract
1B/OF	Ian Desmond	Colorado Rockies	5 years, $70 million
DH/OF	Carlos Beltran	Houston Astros	1 year, $16 million
SP	Derek Holland	Chicago White Sox	1 year, $6 million
1B	Mitch Moreland	Boston Red Sox	1 year, $5.5 million
RP	Shawn Tolleson	Tampa Bay Rays	1 year, $1 million
SP	Colby Lewis	Free Agent
SP	Kyle Lohse	Free Agent

Incoming Free Agents

POS.	Player	Old Team	Contract
SP	Andrew Cashner	Miami Marlins	1 year, $10 million
1B	Mike Napoli	Cleveland Indians	1 year, $8.5 million
SP	Tyson Ross	San Diego Padres	1 year, $6 million
SP	Dillon Gee	Kansas City Royals	1 year, $2 million
1B	James Loney	New York Mets	1 year, $1 million
OF	Travis Snider	Kanas City Royals	1 year, $1 million

Top Prospects

• OF Leody Taveras - MLB.com (55), BA (47), BP (73)
• LHP Yohander Mendez - MLB.com (56), BP (39)
• RHP Ariel Jurado - BP (72)
• SS Anderson Tejeda - BP (95)

Projected Lineup

Order	POS	Number	Bats	Name	Age
1	CF	14	R	Carlos Gomez	31
2	DH	17	L	Shin-Soo Choo	34
3	3B	29	R	Adrian Beltre	37
4	1B	5	R	Mike Napoli	35
5	2B	12	L	Rougned Odor	23
6	C	25	R	Jonathan Lucroy	30
7	RF	30	L	Nomar Mazara	21
8	SS	1	R	Elvis Andrus	28
9	LF	19	S	Jurickson Profar	24
Bench	C	61	R	Robinson Chirinos	32
Bench	IF	68	R	Hanser Alberto	24
Bench	UT	16	R	Ryan Rua	27
Bench	OF	3	R	Delino Deshields Jr.	24
DL	C	63	L	Brett Nicholas	28

Projected Pitching Staff

Role	POS	Number	Throws	Name	Age
1	SP	35	L	Cole Hamels	33
2	SP	11	R	Yu Darvish	30
3	SP	33	L	Martin Perez	25
4	SP	64	R	A.J. Griffin	29
5	SP	21	R	Chi Chi Gonzalez	25
LR	RP	49	R	Mike Hauschild	27
MID	RP	50	R	Keone Kela	23
MID	RP	58	L	Alex Claudio	25
MID	RP	43	R	Tony Barnette	33
SU	RP	23	R	Jeremy Jeffress	29
SU	RP	51	R	Matt Bush	31
CL	RP	47	R	Sam Dyson	28
DL	SP	54	R	Andrew Cashner	30
DL	SP	44	R	Tyson Ross	29

Most Important Player

• SP Yu Darvish - While Cole Hamels is most likely going to be the Rangers' ace and Opening Day starter, Darvish will be the most valuable pitcher in the team's rotation.  Hamels is an extremely reliable pitcher who is generally good for a similar performance each season. Meanwhile, Darvish, the Rangers' uber talented, strikeout throwing phenom, has missed an entire season due to Tommy John surgery and made just 17 starts last season recovering from said surgery and other small ailments.  He pitched really well in 2016 when he did pitch, accumulating a 3.41 ERA and a 7-5 record.  Darvish should be good for around a 3.25 ERA and, if he makes 30 starts this season, he should win at least 15 games.  The Rangers need him to be the same pitcher he has been so far in his career, because following Hamels and Darvish, the team's rotation is a mess.  Having a healthy Darvish instead of Martin Perez or Andrew Cashner pitching behind Hamels will go a long way in determining the team's success in 2017.

Breakout Candidate

• UT Jurickson Profar - Profar is still only 24 years old despite 2017 behind his fifth full season in the majors.  He missed all of 2014 and 2015 with injuries and struggled in 2016 but will finally have an everyday position with the Rangers in 2017 as their starting left fielder.  Profar has been a pretty good contact hitter and has kept his strikeouts fairly low.  I've always been a fan of Profar's skillset and am excited that he will have plenty of opportunity to display these skills. Although Profar no longer has rookie eligibility, he is still young and could be a vital member of the Rangers' lineup and provide depth.

Regression Candidate

• CP Sam Dyson - Dyson was near elite last season, his first as a primary closer, pitching in 73 games, saving 38 of them, and having an ERA of just 2.43.  There are some reasons to believe that he won't repeat his 2016 season and part of that is that he blew just five save last season, a shockingly low number for as many appearances as he had.  I think that he is as good of a pitcher as he exhibited, since his FIP was 3.62, a number not that much higher than his ERA, but I think he will have more blown saves in 2017.

Bounceback Candidate

• OF/DH Shin-Soo Choo - Choo played in only 48 games in 2016 after suffering multiple injuries throughout the season before ultimately being shut down in August with a fractured arm.  Prior to last season, he had been a relatively healthy player, appearing in at least 120 games each of the five previous seasons.  In his limited action last season, Choo regressed at the plate with just a .242 batting average and 17 RBIs.  He will come back in 2017 as the Rangers' regular designated hitter although there is a chance that he could get involved in a platoon situation since he has hit righties over 50 points better than against lefties in his career.  Choo is still a very valuable player, has made really good contact throughout his career and shows glimpses of power, having hit over 20 home runs four times.  He seems to be penciled in as the Rangers' number two hitter and should get every opportunity to see good pitching with Adrian Beltre and Mike Napoli following him.

Season Outlook

• The Rangers were a very good team last season, winning the A.L. West by nine games over the Mariners.  The team's front office addressed their needs at the trade deadline by acquiring catcher Jonathan Lucroy and reliever Jeremy Jeffress, both players whom will be on the roster in 2017.  They fizzled out in the playoffs by getting swept by the Blue Jays in the ALDS despite being picked by many to win the A.L. pennant.  This offseason, the team brought in Mike Napoli on a one-year deal to be their first baseman and to DH and he will be a big threat in the middle of their order.  Other than that, their lineup will remain relatively the same as last season's version but should be very good and they will score a lot of runs.  I'm concerned about their pitching rotation which will rely on three injury-prone starters in Andrew Cashner, Tyson Ross, and Dillon Gee.  That's in addition to Yu Darvish who has had his own injury problems thus far in his career.  If Darvish struggles with injuries again and if the other three starters fail to pitch healthy seasons, the Rangers could be in trouble this season.  In their bullpen, they have a lot of talented pieces who should be able to lock down games effectively.  That being said, I don't like that they only have one left-handed reliever right now and could have problems late in games against left-handed hitters.  The Rangers, regardless of any concerns, are a really good team who should compete for the division crown but have the bad luck of playing in arguably the most competitive division in baseball.

Predictions

• I really like this team and think that they could easily be a playoff team, but I don't think they did enough to address problems in their rotation.  I like the moves that the Astros and Mariners did more and think that the Rangers will finish behind these two teams.  Look for the Rangers to have a record of 83-79, just missing out on a Wild Card spot.

*All stats and information came from baseball-reference.com, mlb.com, espn.com, spotrac.com, fangraphs.com, baseballprospectus.com, baseballamerica.com, and rosterresource.com