Friday, March 31, 2017

MLB Season Preview - Arizona Diamondbacks

2016 Record: 69-93
Manager: Torey Lovullo (2016)
4th in Division
General Manager: Mike Hazen (2016)
Failed to make the playoffs
AAA Affiliate: Reno Aces
AA Affiliate: Jackson Generals


News

  • Fired GM Dave Steward and manager Chip Hale, replacing them with Mike Hazen and Torey Lovullo, respectively
  • Acquired SS/2B Ketel Marte and SP Taijuan Walker from Seattle for P Zac Curtis, OF Mitch Haniger, and SS Jean Segura
  • Traded OF Peter O'Brien to Kansas City for P Sam Lewis
  • Traded INF Phil Gosselin to Pittsburgh for P Frank Duncan

Players Lost in the Offseason

POS.
Player
New Team
               Contract
C
Welington Castillo
Baltimore Orioles
2 years, $13 million
RP
Daniel Hudson
Pittsburgh Pirates
2 years, $11 million


Incoming Free Agents

POS.
Player
Old Team
               Contract
c
Jeff Mathis
Miami Marlins
2 years, $4 million
RP
Fernando Rodney
Miami Marlins
1 year, $2.75 million
RP
Jorge De La Rosa
Colorado Rockies
1 year, $2.25 million
RP
Kevin Jepsen
Tampa Bay Rays
1 year, $2.25 million
2B
Daniel Descalso
Colorado Rockies
1 year, $1.5 million
C
Chris Iannetta
Seattle Mariners
1 year, $1.5 million
OF
Gregor Blanco
San Francisco Giants
1 year, $1 million
C
Hank Conger
Tampa Bay Rays
1 year, $950,000


Top Prospects

  • LHP Anthony Banda - BA (88)

Projected Lineup

Order
POS
Number
Bats
Name
Age
1
CF
11
R
A.J. Pollock
29
2
3B
22
L
Jake Lamb
26
3
1B
44
R
Paul Goldschmidt
29
4
RF
6
L
David Peralta
29
5
LF
24
R
Yasmany Tomas
26
6
2B
27
R
Brandon Drury
24
7
SS
16
R
Chris Owings
25
8
C
8
R
Chris Iannetta
33
Bench
C/OF
10
L
Chris Herrmann
29
Bench
C
2
R
Jeff Mathis
34
Bench
IF
13
R
Nick Ahmed
27
Bench
UT
3
L
Daniel Descalso
30
Bench
OF
41
L
Jeremy Hazelbaker
29
DL
OF
19
L
Socrates Brito
24


Projected Pitching Staff

Role
POS
Number
Throws
Name
Age
1
SP
21
R
Zack Greinke
33
2
SP
99
R
Taijuan Walker
24
3
SP
38
L
Robbie Ray
25
4
SP
26
R
Shelby Miller
26
5
SP
46
L
Patrick Corbin
27
LR
RP
53
R
Tyler Jones
27
MID
RP
-
R
Kevin Jepsen
32
MID
RP
-
R
Tom Wilhelmsen
33
MID
RP
40
L
Andrew Chafin
26
SU
RP
48
R
Randall Delgado
27
SU
RP
33
R
Jake Barrett
25
CL
RP
56
R
Fernando Rodney
40
DL
SP
54
R
Andrew Cashner
30
DL
SP
44
R
Tyson Ross
29


Most Important Player

  • 1B Paul Goldschmidt - Goldschmidt, despite receiving MVP Award votes three of the past four seasons, is still undervalued by fans across baseball.  This has to be due in large part to the fact that he plays in the desert.  He batted at least .300 for three consecutive seasons before falling to a still lofty .297 last season.  He has been the only serious power threat in the Diamondbacks' lineup since the 2013 season when Justin Upton was traded.  Although Arizona's lineup has gotten more competitive in recent seasons, Goldschmidt is still the team's best hitter and is their best chance at success this season.  Hopefully for Goldschmidt's sake, he will get some protection Jake Lamb and David Peralta surrounding him in the lineup.

Breakout Candidate

  • SP Taijuan Walker - Walker has pitched in parts of three big league seasons now and has shown signs of brilliance at times.  The problem, though, is that when he isn't brilliant he often lacks control and finesse, giving up a lot of home runs in the process.  The past two seasons he has been pretty bad with ERAs above 4.00 in each season.  He should get every chance to prove that he can be consistent with the Diamondbacks in 2017 despite pitching in the hitter friendly confines of Chase Field.

Regression Candidate

  • OF Yasmany Tomas - Tomas has almost had identical batting averages each of the past two seasons but his home run numbers increased significantly in 2016 compared to 2015.  In 2015, Tomas hit just nine home runs in 118 games but hit 31 of them in 2016 while playing in 140 games.  It seems pretty obvious that Tomas is around a .270 hitter but I don't think he will repeat his power output that he showed in 2016.  He rode an elevated home run to fly ball rate last season, up from 13% in 2015 to 25% in 2016, and also pulled the ball 10% more to left field, the shortest wall at Chase Field.  

Bounceback Candidate

  • OF A.J. Pollock - Pollock appeared in just 12 games last season after breaking his elbow at the end of spring training and then injuring his groin in late August.  When he has been healthy, Pollock is an excellent top to middle of the order bat, displaying both an ability to get on base and drive the ball.  If he is able to return to full health this season, he should be able to return to his pre-injury numbers and help the Diamondbacks greatly.

Season Outlook

  • This franchise has gone through a lot in recent seasons under the leadership of Dave Stewart and Tony LaRusa.  They sold off a lot of their prospects in trades to acquire major league talent, including trading Dansby Swanson to the Braves for Shelby Miller.  They also gave Zack Greinke a six year, $206.5 million deal before last season despite not having any rotational depth behind him.  Diamondbacks ownership has decided to go in a new direction by hiring Mike Hazen as their new GM and Torey Lovullo as manager which has to mean that the team will perform better on the field in the upcoming season.  I really like Arizona's lineup as long as A.J. Pollock is healthy and can be the team's lead off hitter.  He has a career .346 on-base percentage and if can get on-base with Jake Lamb, Paul Goldschmidt, and David Peralta following him, Arizona could have a good offensive season.  I think that Goldschmidt could have another MVP-level season, Lamb will hit 25 home runs again, and Yasmany Tomas will be a power threat once again.  I really don't like Arizona's pitching staff and think that their rotation is a real weak spot.  Zack Greinke will probably bounceback from how poorly he pitched in 2016 but pitching in Chase Field doesn't bode well for any pitcher.  The team's front office acquired Taijuan Walker this offseason to pitch behind Greinke and I think Walker could finally find consistency in 2017.  Behind those two, I think the rest of the rotation is one giant question mark.  Neither Robbie Ray nor Patrick Corbin have managed to break out and Shelby Miller was abysmal last season.  

Predictions

  • In 2017, the Diamondbacks probably won't be very competitive especially with how good the top of the N.L. West is.  Even if Greinke can rebound from his down season in 2016, Arizona's rotation isn't good enough to compete with the Dodgers or Giants' rotations.  I think that they will finish fourth in the division with a record of 74-88.
*All stats and information came from baseball-reference.com, mlb.com, espn.com, spotrac.com, fangraphs.com, baseballprospectus.com, baseballamerica.com, and rosterresource.com

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