MLB Season Preview - Washington Nationals

2016 Record: 95-67	Manager: Dusty Baker (2015)
1st in Division	General Manager: Mike Rizzo (2009)
Lost to the Dodgers 3-2 in the NLDS	AAA Affiliate: Syracuse Chiefs AA Affiliate: Harrisburg Senators

News

• Acquired C Derek Norris from San Diego for P Pedro Avila
• Acquired OF Adam Eaton from the White Sox for Ps Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez, and Dane Dunning
• Acquired Ps Austin Adams and Kyle McGowin from the Angels for SS Danny Espinosa 
• Re-signed INF Stephen Drew to a 1 year, $3.5 million deal
• Re-signed OF Chris Heisey to a 1 year, $1.4 million deal

Players Lost in the Offseason

POS.	Player	New Team	Contract
C	Wilson Ramos	Tampa Bay Rays	2 year, $12.5 million
OF	Ben Revere	Los Angeles Angels	1 year, $4 million
SP	Mat Latos	Toronto Blue Jays	1 year, $1.5 million
RP	Matt Belisle	Minnesota Twins	1 year, $2.05 million
RP	Sean Burnett	Philadelphia Phillies
CP	Mark Melancon	San Francisco Giants	4 years, $62 million
P	Yusmeiro Petit	Los Angeles Angels	1 year, $2.25 million
RP	Marc Rzepczynski	Seattle Mariners	2 years, $11 million

Incoming Free Agents

POS.	Player	Old Team	Contract
C	Matt Wieters	Baltimore Orioles	2 years, $21 million
1B	Adam Lind	Seattle Mariners	1 year, $1.5 million
P	Joe Blanton	Los Angeles Dodgers	1 year, $4 million

Top Prospects

• OF Victor Robles - MLB.com (7), BA (13), BP (7)
• RHP Erick Fedde - MLB.com (60), BA (52), BP (62)
• OF Juan Soto - BP (57)

Projected Lineup

Order	POS	Number	Bats	Name	Age
1	SS	7	R	Trea Turner	23
2	CF	2	L	Adam Eaton	28
3	2B	20	L	Daniel Murphy	31
4	RF	34	L	Bryce Harper	24
5	3B	6	R	Anthony Rendon	26
6	LF	28	R	Jayson Werth	37
7	C	32	S	Matt Wieters	30
8	1B	11	R	Ryan Zimmerman	32
Bench	C	23	R	Derek Norris	28
Bench	1B	73	L	Adam Lind	33
Bench	1B/OF	25	L	Clint Robinson	32
Bench	IF	10	L	Stephen Drew	34
Bench	OF	14	R	Chris Heisey	32

Projected Staff

Role	POS	Number	Throws	Name	Age
1	SP	31	R	Max Scherzer	32
2	SP	37	R	Stephen Strasburg	28
3	SP	57	R	Tanner Roark	30
4	SP	47	L	Gio Gonzalez	31
5	SP	41	R	Joe Ross	23
LR	RP	-	R	Joe Blanton	36
MID	RP	-	L	Enny Romero	26
MID	RP	46	L	Oliver Perez	35
MID	RP	30	R	Koda Glover	23
SU	RP	36	L	Sammy Solis	28
SU	RP	45	R	Blake Treinen	28
CL	RP	27	R	Shawn Kelley	32

Most Important Player

• SP Max Scherzer - With the injuries that Stephen Strasburg has dealt with the past two seasons, Scherzer has become that much more important to the Nationals.  He led the league in games started, wins, and innings pitched last season and will continue to be the team's most important player in 2017.  He has had a sub-3.00 ERA three of the past four seasons, has made at least 30 starts every season since 2009, and has thrown over 200 innings each of the past four seasons. He has also won two Cy Young Awards, one in each league, and has cemented himself among the best pitchers in the game.  For the Nationals to repeat as N.L. East champs, Scherzer will have to be elite again and be the ace of the staff.

Breakout Candidate

• SS Trea Turner - Okay, so Turner has already proven that he can hit big league pitching and is one of the most exciting young players in the majors.  In 73 games in 2016, he batted .342, hit 13 home runs, and drove in 40 runs, all while playing solid defense.  This season, he will move back to his natural position of shortstop and should be the Nationals' lead off hitter.  While I don't think he'll hit .342 again over a full season, I think he is still a .300 hitter and will be a serious threat on the basepaths.

Regression Candidate

• 2B Daniel Murphy - Daniel Murphy is an excellent hitter, makes great contact, hits for power, and strikes out very little, just 57 times last season.  I think he will still be a great player for Washington in 2017 but I don't think he'll bat .347 this season.  He's probably more of a .300 hitter who will continue to provide solid protection for Bryce Harper in the lineup.  If there is one area where he can improve it's his general ability to get on base, something that can be aided by walking more often.

Bounceback Candidate

• RF Bryce Harper - Harper took a big step back in 2016 compared to his MVP-winning season in 2015.  His average regressed from .330 all the way to .243, he hit 18 fewer home runs, and his on-base percentage dropped from .460 to .373.  2016 seems like a blip on the radar of Harper's career as he has always shown the potential he lived up to in 2015.  There is also the chance that 2015 was the outlier and that he won't be able to live up to his MVP season, but I think last season was a product of injuries.

Season Outlook

• The Nationals roster has changed quite a bit over the offseason, as the front office acquired Adam Eaton and Derek Norris in trades, and signed Matt Wieters via free agency.  The moves the team made show that management is going all-in on the present and immediate future with the current roster group they have and mortgaged the future for a better chance at a World Series.  Giving up Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez for Adam Eaton was a big price to pay but Eaton will provide an on-base threat and quality fielder the Nationals haven't had in awhile. Harper will be a free agent after the 2018 season, so the Nationals need to do everything possible to take advantage of having Harper for the next two seasons.  The team's starting rotation is really good, especially if Strasburg can stay healthy, with Scherzer coming off a second Cy Young Award and Tanner Roark having a sub-3.00 ERA season in 2016.  Their only question mark in the rotation is Gio Gonzalez, who had his worst season since 2009 and the 21-win season he had in 2012 seems a distant memory.  The Nationals need him to find his form again since he is penciled in as the team's only left-handed starter.  If the team has a true weakness, it's in the bullpen, where they currently don't have a tested closer and will probably go with Shawn Kelley.  They pursued Mark Melancon, Aroldis Chapman, and Kenley Jansen this offseason but all three went and signed elsewhere.  There are rumors that the team is still looking in on White Sox closer David Robertson, but I don't think trading away young prospects for him would be a smart move.

Predictions

• Even before acquiring Eaton and signing Wieters, the Nationals were going to be the favorites in the N.L. East.  After adding these two players, it would take a lot for them to lose the division. I expect them to be a 95 win team this season and win the division by around 10 games.  They should be the team that can compete with the Cubs the most in the National League.

*All stats and information came from baseball-reference.com, mlb.com, espn.com, spotrac.com, fangraphs.com, baseballprospectus.com, baseballamerica.com, and rosterresource.com