MLB Season Preview - Toronto Blue Jays

2016 Record: 89-73	Manager: John Gibbons (2012)
2nd  in Division	General Manager: Ross Atkins (2015)
Defeated the Orioles in the A.L. Wild Card game Defeated the Rangers 3-0 in the ALDS Lost to the Indians 4-1 in the ALCS	AAA Affiliate: Buffalo Bisons AA Affiliate: New Hampshire Fisher Cats

News

• Re-signed OF Jose Bautista to a 1 year, $18 million deal

Players Lost in the Offseason

POS.	Player	New Team	Contract
SP	R.A. Dickey	Atlanta Braves	1 year, $7.5 million
RP	Brett Cecil	St. Louis Cardinals	4 years, $30.5 million
RP	Joaquin Benoit	Philadelphia Phillies	1 year, $7.5 million
1B/DH	Edwin Encarnacion	Cleveland Indians	3 years, $60 million
OF	Michael Saunders	Philadelphia Phillies	1 year, $8 million
P	Scott Feldman	Cincinnati Reds	1 year, $2.3 million

Incoming Free Agents

POS.	Player	Old Team	Contract
1B	Kendrys Morales	Kansas City Royals	3 years, $33 million
UT	Steve Pearce	Baltimore Orioles	2 years, $12.5 million
RP	J.P. Howell	Los Angeles Dodgers	1 year, $3 million
RP	Joe Smith	Chicago Cubs	1 year, $3 million

Top Prospects

• 3B Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - MLB.com (34), BA (20), 
• RHP Sean Reid-Foley - MLB.com (64), BA (75), BP (85)
• OF Anthony Alford - MLB.com (70), BA (59), BP (93)
• SS Richard Urena - MLB.com (94)
• OF/3B Lourdes Gurriel - BA (73)
• 1B Rowdy Tellez - BA (95)

Projected Lineup

Order	POS	Number	Bats	Name	Age
1	2B	29	R	Devon Travis	26
2	3B	20	R	Josh Donaldson	31
3	RF	19	R	Jose Bautista	36
4	DH	8	S	Kendrys Morales	33
5	SS	2	R	Troy Tulowitzki	32
6	C	55	R	Russell Wilson	34
7	1B	14	S	Justin Smoak	30
8	CF	11	R	Kevin Pillar	28
9	LF	3	L	Ezequiel Carrera	29
Bench	C	-	S	Jarrod Saltalamacchia	31
Bench	UT	28	R	Steve Pearce	33
Bench	UT	18	R	Darwin Barney	31
Bench	OF	7	R	Melvin Upton Jr.	32

Projected Pitching Staff

Role	POS	Number	Throws	Name	Age
1	SP	25	R	Marco Estrada	33
2	SP	33	L	J.A. Happ	34
3	SP	6	R	Marcus Stroman	25
4	SP	41	R	Aaron Sanchez	24
5	SP	45	L	Francisco Liriano	33
LR	RP	46	R	Glenn Sparkman	24
MID	RP	62	L	Aaron Loup	29
MID	RP	38	R	Joe Smith	32
MID	RP	56	L	J.P. Howell	33
SU	RP	31	R	Joe Biagini	26
SU	RP	37	R	Jason Grilli	40
CL	RP	54	R	Roberto Osuna	22

Most Important Player

• RF Jose Bautista - Bautista could also be the Blue Jay most likely to have a bounceback season and yet I feel that he is the player most vital to Toronto's success this season.  For the early part of the offseason it didn't look like Bautista was going to return to the Blue Jays after he turned down the team's qualifying offer for one year, $17.2 million.  He quickly found that there wasn't a lot of interest on the open market for an aging outfielder who had a down, injury-plagued 2016 season and who can't field his position well and returned to Toronto on a one year deal worth $18 million with an option for 2018.  I think this was too much money for a player who struggled last season and who turned down their qualifying offer, but I believe the deal also shows that the Blue Jays were worried about their offense after losing out on Edwin Encarnacion.  Toronto's offense has quickly become old and is no longer even their best unit considering the success of their pitching staff last season.  Had Bautista not re-signed with the Blue Jays their lineup would have lacked serious depth and one whose only real threats would have been Josh Donaldson and Troy Tulowitzki.  Bautista needs to return to his pre-2016 numbers and be the driving force in the Blue Jays' offense and a player who protects Donaldson.

Breakout Candidate

• CF Kevin Pillar - Since becoming a major leaguer in 2013, Pillar has best been known for his glove in center field, where he has emerged as one of the best defensive outfielders in baseball. His bat hasn't exactly followed suit although he has been a good contact hitter during his career. I think that 2017 will be the year that Pillar's bat comes alive and perhaps he'll find more of a power stroke and eclipse his career high of 12 home runs.  If Pillar is able to become more of an offensive threat it would greatly help the Blue Jays who may struggle to replace Encarnacion.

Regression Candidate

• SP J.A. Happ - Last year, Happ had his best season since 2009,  as he started 32 games, won 20 games, and had just a 3.18 ERA.  His workload was the highest of his career, throwing nearly 30 more innings than his previous highest, which is truly surprising for a player who was 33.  He even finished sixth in A.L. Cy Young Award voting, the first time he ever received votes for the award.  Considering the fact that last year was by far the best season of his career and that his workload was significantly higher than ever before, it seems unlikely that Happ doesn't experience some form of regression in 2017.  If he regresses a bit it doesn't mean that he won't still be a good pitcher, just that he isn't necessarily an ace.  It could also be that his stint with the Pirates in 2015 and his time spent with pitching coach Ray Searage has been enough to change Happ's pitching ability.

Bounceback Candidate

• C Russell Martin - Martin hasn't been nearly as good during his tenure with the Blue Jays as he was in his two seasons with Pittsburgh.  Last season he only batted .231 in 137 games, but did manage to hit 20 home runs and drive in 74 runs.  He also played in the most games since 2009 when he played in 143.  For a 33 year old catcher, a 119 games starting behind the plate is a lot of strain on Martin and perhaps taking more time off would help him at the plate.  Martin has always been one of the better offensive catchers in the majors and he is more than capable of getting back to his pre-Toronto numbers.

Season Outlook

• Going into the offseason it looked like there was potential for Toronto to go through a roster teardown and rebuild considering the age of its roster and the loss of Encarnacion.  It looked like the only young and talented part of the roster was the pitching staff, which had become quite young and performed really well in 2016.  Instead, the front office was able to re-sign Bautista, signed veteran DH Kendrys Morales as well as utilityman Steve Pearce.  Going into 2017 the Blue Jays will have to be led by their pitching staff which features two young and brilliant starters in Marcus Stroman and Aaron Sanchez.  They also have quite a bit of depth in the rotation behind those two with Marco Estrada, Happ, and Francisco Liriano closing out the staff.  They also have a fairly good bullpen which was strengthened this offseason by adding veterans J.P. Howell and Joe Smith.  Somewhere during the past year or so, the Blue Jays have transitioned from a team guided by their high-powered offense and a pitching rotation that could just "get by" into a team with one of the better rotations in baseball and a veteran offense that is now injury-prone and somewhat of a weakness.

Predictions

• The Blue Jays will still be a good team in 2017 and should make the playoffs again.  The front office appears to have squeezed one more competitive year out of the roster before their offensive core becomes too old.  I think that Toronto will win around 85 games this season     (84-78) and make the playoffs again as a Wild Card team and a majority of the wins they earn will be due in large part to their upper-level pitching staff.

*All stats and information came from baseball-reference.com, mlb.com, espn.com, spotrac.com, fangraphs.com, baseballprospectus.com, baseballamerica.com, and rosterresource.com