MLB Season Preview - Philadelphia Phillies

2016 Record: 71-91	Manager: Pete Mackanin (2015)
4th  in Division	General Manager: Matt Klentak (2015)
Failed to make the playoffs	AAA Affiliate: Lehigh Valley IronPigs AA Affiliate: Reading Fighting Phils

News

• Acquired INF Howie Kendrick from the Dodgers for 1B Darin Ruf and UT Darnell Sweeney
• Acquired SP Clay Buchholz from Boston for 2B prospect Josh Tobias
• Acquired RP Pat Neshek from the Astros for a player to be named later or cash
• Re-signed INF Andres Blanco to a 1 year, $3 million deal

Players Lost in the Offseason

POS.	Player	New Team	Contract
C	A.J. Ellis	Miami Marlins	1 year, $2.5 million
1B	Ryan Howard	Free Agent
OF	Peter Bourjos	Free Agent
SP	Charlie Morton	Houston Astros	2 years, $14 million
RP	David Hernandez	San Francisco Giants	1 year, $1.5 million

Incoming Free Agents

POS.	Player	Old Team	Contract
OF	Michael Saunders	Toronto Blue Jays	1 year, $9 million
C	Ryan Hanigan	Boston Red Sox	1 year, $1.25 million
UT	Chris Coghlan	Chicago Cubs	1 year, $3 million
RP	Joaquin Benoit	Toronto Blue Jays	1 year, $7.5 million

Top Prospects

• SS J.P. Crawford - MLB.com (6), BA (12), BP (4)
• OF Mickey Moniak - MLB.com (19), BA (17), BP (56)
• C Jorge Alfaro - MLB.com (72), BA (41), BP (33)
• RHP Sixto Sanchez - BA (80)
• OF Nick Williams - BP (51)
• RHP Franklyn Kilome - BP (74)
• RHP Adonis Medina - BP (91)

Projected Lineup

Order	POS	Number	Bats	Name	Age
1	2B	16	S	Cesar Hernandez	26
2	LF	47	R	Howie Kendrick	33
3	CF	37	L	Odubel Herrera	25
4	3B	7	R	Maikel Franco	24
5	RF	5	L	Michael Saunders	30
6	1B	19	R	Tommy Joseph	25
7	SS	13	S	Freddy Galvis	27
8	C	29	R	Cameron Rupp	28
Bench	C	-	R	Ryan Hanigan	36
Bench	IF	4	S	Andres Blanco	32
Bench	OF	9	R	Aaron Altherr	26
Bench	OF	2	R	Tyler Goeddel	24
Bench	UT	-	L	Chris Coghlan	31

Projected Pitching Staff

Role	POS	Number	Throws	Name	Age
1	SP	58	R	Jeremy Hellickson	29
2	SP	27	R	Aaron Nola	23
3	SP	21	R	Clay Buchholz	32
4	SP	48	R	Jerad Eickhoff	26
5	SP	28	R	Vince Velasquez	24
LR	RP	57	R	Luis Garcia	30
MID	RP	61	R	Edubray Ramos	24
MID	RP	63	L	Joely Rodriguez	25
MID	RP	17	R	Pat Neshek	36
SU	RP	50	R	Hector Neris	27
SU	RP	53	R	Joaquin Benoit	39
CL	RP	46	R	Jeanmar Gomez	29

Most Important Player

• SP Jerad Eickhoff - I was really torn on who to pick for this category.  In the Phillies lineup, I don't see any batters who are that much more important than anyone else.  Their pitching rotation is relatively young, as a unit, and projected future ace, Aaron Nola, has struggled to develop into a frontline pitcher so far.  Eickhoff, on the other hand, has been somewhat of a shock in terms of value considering he never appeared on any of Baseball America's, Baseball Prospectus', or MLB.com's top 100 prospect lists.  Eickhoff emerged as the Phillies best pitcher last season, made the team's most starts, and pitched the most innings.  Eickhoff should be the Phillies' ace in 2017 and will be the most relied-upon starter and, at 26, still has more potential to exhibit.

Breakout Candidate

• CF Odubel Herrera - Herrera now has two full major league seasons under his belt and improved from his rookie to sophomore season.  While his batting average dropped from .297 to .286, his on-base percentage rose, he hit more home runs, drove in more runs, and stole more bases. Overall, he has developed into one of the game's best young players and one of the better defensive center fielders.  I still think that there is more talent left for Herrera to tap into and can continue being the Phillies best player and one of the best overall hitters in baseball.

Regression Candidate

• SP Jeremy Hellickson - Hellickson, a veteran of seven MLB seasons, had one of his best in 2016, starting 32 games, compiling a 12-10 record to the tune of a 3.71 ERA, tying his career record for innings pitched, and struck out 154 batters, the most of his career.  His FIP of 3.98 shows that he didn't actually pitch as good as his ERA shows and this is consistent with his career to date.  It seems that it will be very difficult for Hellickson to repeat his 2016 season and I don't think this will be possible.  I believe that it was a very smart move by Hellickson to accept the Phillies' qualifying offer that will pay him $17.2 million in 2017.

Bounceback Candidate

• SP Clay Buchholz - Buchholz had a rough 2016 season after putting together an excellent year in 2015.  His ERA ballooned to 4.78 over 37 appearances and 21 starts and it seems that his down numbers could have been due, in part, to him starting games and pitching out of the bullpen.  He has made a habit out of putting together good and bad seasons in alternating years, pitching well in 2013, poor in 2014, better again in 2015, and poor once again in 2016.  If he follows his career trend, he should put together a solid season once again in 2017, plus this season will be a contract year and he will be pitching for a multi-year contract.

Season Outlook

• The Phillies are starting to climb out of their rebuild similar to the Atlanta Braves and should be more competitive in 2017 than they were in 2016.  The Phillies upgraded their lineup this offseason and will now include Howie Kendrick and Michael Saunders, plus utilityman Chris Coghlan, all of whom are quality, veteran hitters.  Apart from these three batters, the lineup includes no one over the age of 28 and will rely on a lot of young hitters who have proven themselves in previous seasons.  Their pitching rotation will also be very young, diverting in similarity from the Braves, by choosing to only to have one starting pitcher over the age of 30 in Clay Buchholz.  These pitchers, although young, are still reliable and extremely talented and could be part one of the better rotations in the National League, but lacks a left-handed starter, something that could be an issue against left-handed heavy lineups.  The team's struggle will be in the bullpen where they are most likely going with Jeanmar Gomez as their closer but should probably be picking Joaquin Benoit for that role.  The Phillies are still a franchise looking towards the future and still have one of the best farm systems in baseball.  They have one of the best shortstop prospects in baseball in J.P. Crawford, who will probably start the season in AAA but has the chance to get called up late in the season.  Currently, several of their fielders (Howie Kendrick, Freddy Galvis, and Cameron Rupp) are just placeholders for the prospects that will be coming up in the next few seasons.

Predictions

• The Phillies are a difficult team for me to predict because I'm uncertain of how competitive the front office wants them to be in 2017.  They will have a solid pitching rotation, although if they play a long series against the Dodgers or Nationals, they could get beat up, but should remain relatively competitive.  Their lineup has been improved over its 2016 edition and should be more productive with the additions of Saunders and Kendrick but will still probably struggle to score runs.  I think regardless of the team's additions, they will still finish in the basement of a competitive N.L. East, winning around 70 games.  They will be far better than the worst team in baseball, however, and should show improvement on the field.

*All stats and information came from baseball-reference.com, mlb.com, espn.com, spotrac.com, fangraphs.com, baseballprospectus.com, baseballamerica.com, and rosterresource.com