MLB Season Preview - New York Yankees

2016 Record: 84-78	Manager: Joe Girardi (2007)
4th  in Division	General Manager: Brian Cashman (1998)
Failed to make the playoffs	AAA Affiliate: Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders AA Affiliate: Trenton Thunder

News

• Traded C Brian McCann to Houston for prospects Jorge Guzman and Albert Abreu
• 1B Mark Teixeira retired

Players Lost in the Offseason

POS.	Player	New Team	Contract
1B	Billy Butler	Free Agent

Incoming Free Agents

POS.	Player	Old Team	Contract
LF	Matt Holliday	St. Louis Cardinals	1 year,  $13 million
1B	Chris Carter	Milwaukee Brewers	1 year, $3 million
CL	Aroldis Chapman	Chicago Cubs	5 years, $86 million

Top Prospects

• SS Gleyber Torres - MLB.com (3), BA (5), BP (15)
• OF Clint Frazier - MLB.com (24), BA (39), BP (16)
• OF Blake Rutherford - MLB.com (37), BA (45), BP (49)
• OF Aaron Judge - MLB.com (45), BA (90), BP (63)
• SS/2B Jorge Mateo - MLB.com (47), BA (85), BP (43)
• RHP James Kaprielian - MLB.com (58), BA (87), BP (58)
• LHP Justus Sheffield - MLB.com (79), BA (91), BP (52)
• RHP Albert Abreu - BP (82)
• IF/OH Tyler Wade - BP (101)

Projected Lineup

Order	POS	Number	Bats	Name	Age
1	LF	11	L	Brett Gardner	33
2	CF	22	L	Jacoby Ellsbury	33
3	C	24	R	Gary Sanchez	24
4	DH	17	R	Matt Holliday	37
5	1B	33	L	Greg Bird	24
6	2B	14	R	Starlin Castro	26
7	SS	18	L	Didi Gregorius	27
8	3B	12	S	Chase Headley	32
9	RF	99	R	Aaron Judge	24
Bench	C	27	R	Austin Romine	28
Bench	1B	48	R	Chris Carter	30
Bench	IF	74	R	Ronald Torreyes	24
Bench	OF	31	S	Aaron Hicks	27

Projected Pitching Staff

Role	POS	Number	Throws	Name	Age
1	SP	19	R	Masahiro Tanaka	28
2	SP	52	L	C.C. Sabathia	36
3	SP	35	R	Michael Pineda	28
4	SP	40	R	Luis Severino	23
5	SP	57	R	Chad Green	25
LR	RP	85	R	Luis Cessa	24
MID	RP	55	R	Bryan Mitchell	25
MID	RP	39	L	Tommy Layne	32
MID	RP	43	R	Adam Warren	29
SU	RP	29	R	Tyler Clippard	32
SU	RP	68	R	Dellin Betances	28
CL	RP	54	L	Aroldis Chapman	29

Most Important Player

• C Gary Sanchez - This is based on the understanding that Sanchez has already broken out as a player with what he did at the plate late in the season last year.  He should be the Yankees best hitter this coming season in a year where the Yankees may not be trying overly hard to reach the playoffs.  He has already proven that he is a major league hitter and is by far the biggest threat in their lineup.  If Sanchez can build on what he did at the end of 2016, he will quickly become one of the most feared hitters in baseball and will guide the Yankees offense.

Breakout Candidate

• OF Aaron Judge - Judge appeared in 27 games at the end of last season and struggled to hit in the big leagues, batting just .179 but did hit 4 home runs in those games.  He should be close to an everyday player this coming season since the Yankees shipped out Carlos Beltran last year at the trade deadline and moved Brian McCann this offseason, opening spots in the lineup for Sanchez and Judge.  Judge has struggled to make consistent contact at the upper levels of the minors, compiling a .270 average at AAA Scranton/Wilkes-Barre in 93 games last season but has shown significant power in his minor league career.  He should have plenty of opportunity to take hold of playing time in a season where expectations on the Yankees may be tempered compared to past seasons.

Regression Candidate

• SP C.C. Sabathia - Sabathia had a great bounceback season in 2016 after three straight bad years when his ERA was over 4.70 each season, when he had a 3.91 ERA last year.  His underlying numbers show that his season may not have been as good as his ERA exhibited since his FIP was 4.28 showing that the defense behind him aided his pitching significantly.  Sabathia will turn 37 this season and appears to be approaching the conclusion of his career and repeating 2016 may be difficult even health-wise.

Bounceback Candidate

• SP Michael Pineda - So far in his career, Pineda has failed to live up to expectations placed upon him and how well he pitched in the minors.  Other than his first season in 2014 when he pitched in just 13 games, Pineda has yet to post an ERA under 4.00.  He hasn't been as bad as his ERA's have looked, however, as his FIP's have been much better, 3.34 in 2015 and 3.79 in 2016 showing that he has actually pitched fairly well.

Season Outlook

• I think that the biggest question mark regarding the 2017 Yankees is how competitive the team's front office wants the team to be this season.  The moves they made last season and this offseason by trading away veterans for young prospects shows that they wanted to re-tool the roster and look towards the future.  In constrast to those moves, they then signed closer Aroldis Chapman this offseason to the biggest deal ever given to a relief pitcher when they already have Dellin Betances on their roster.  While having a strong bullpen is a necessity for any team looking to win a World Series, paying a closer $15 million per year seems a bit much.  The Yankees still probably have too many holes and too many unproductive veterans on their roster to really compete this season and I think that they will continue trying to move these players out by the trade deadline.  Perhaps these will include C.C. Sabathia and Brett Gardner this season, just to move some salary and open up roster spots for their prospects.  The Yankees are a team that will be pushing for the future considering the number of high level prospects they have in the minors.  Most likely a couple of these will be used to acquire major league players, especially a starting pitcher, when they're ready to compete.  I think that the front office should continue shedding salaries until the offseason following the 2018 season when Bryce Harper and Manny Machado are both going to be free agents and the Yankees will be able to spend big on one or both of them.  The future looks incredibly bright for the Yankees with a core that could rival the one they had in the late 1990s and 2000s with Jeter, Pettitte, and Posada, somthing that, as a Red Sox fan, frightens me.  

Prediction

• For this season I think that the Yankees will finish the season around the .500 mark and could probably win upwards of 85 games.  However, I think that they will sell of players at the trade deadline, and fall off at the end of the season.  A record of 80-82 seems reasonable.

*All stats and information came from baseball-reference.com, mlb.com, espn.com, spotrac.com, fangraphs.com, baseballprospectus.com, and rosterresource.com