MLB Season Preview - Milwaukee Brewers

2016 Record: 73-89	Manager: Craig Counsell (2015)
4th in Division	General Manager: David Stearns (2015)
Failed to make the playoffs	AAA Affiliate: Colorado Springs Sky Sox AA Affiliate: Biloxi Shuckers

News

• Traded RP Tyler Thornburg to Boston for INFs Travis Shaw and Mauricio Dubon, P Josh Pennington, and a player to be named later or cash

Players Lost in the Offseason

POS.	Player	New Team	Contract
1B	Chris Carter	New York Yankees	1 year, $3.5 million
RP	Blaine Boyer	Atlanta Braves	1 year, $975,000
P	Chris Capuano	Free Agent
3B	Will Middlebrooks	Free Agent

Incoming Free Agents

POS.	Player	Old Team	Contract
RP	Neftali Feliz	Pittsburgh Pirates	1 year, $5.35 million
P	Tom Milone	Minnesota Twins	1 year, $1.25 million

Top Prospects

• OF Lewis Brinson - MLB.com (18), BA (27), BP (12)
• OF Corey Ray - MLB.com (30), BA (42), BP (41)
• LHP Josh Hader - MLB.com (38), BA (33), BP (19)
• RHP Luis Ortiz - MLB.com (62), BA (79), BP (68)
• RHP Brandon Woodruff - BA (82)
• SS/2B Isan Diaz - BA (93), BP (59)
• OF Brett Phillips - BP (75)
• OF Trent Clark - BP (99)

Projected Lineup

Order	POS	Number	Bats	Name	Age
1	2B	5	S	Jonathan Villar	25
2	CF	23	R	Keon Broston	26
3	LF	8	R	Ryan Braun	33
4	1B	7	L	Eric Thames	30
5	RF	16	R	Domingo Santana	24
6	3B	21	L	Travis Shaw	26
7	SS	3	R	Orlando Arcia	22
8	C	13	R	Andrew Susac	27
Bench	C	9	R	Manny Pina	29
Bench	1B	24	R	Jesus Aguilar	26
Bench	IF	2	L	Scooter Gennett	26
Bench	UT	14	R	Hernan Perez	25
Bench	OF	10	L	Kirk Nieuwenhuis	29

Projected Pitching Staff

Role	POS	Number	Throws	Name	Age
1	SP	41	R	Junior Guerra	32
2	SP	22	R	Matt Garza	33
3	SP	27	R	Zach Davies	24
4	SP	57	R	Chase Anderson	29
5	SP	38	R	Wily Peralta	27
LR	RP	33	L	Tommy Milone	30
MID	RP	-	R	Joba Chamberlain	31
MID	RP	50	R	Jacob Barnes	26
MID	RP	53	R	Jhan Marinez	28
SU	RP	59	R	Carlos Torres	34
SU	RP	46	R	Corey Knebel	25
CL	RP	37	R	Neftali Feliz	28

Most Important Player

• LF Ryan Braun - Following his suspension in 2013 from PED usage, Braun has continued to     re-confirm his status as an elite hitter.  In the three full seasons since his suspension, his batting average has climbed from .266 to .285 to .305 in 2016.  He also managed to hit 30 home runs and drive in 91 runs in a lineup that was really thin in talent.  Depending on how well Eric Thames re-adapts to big league pitching, Braun could be the only power threat in the Brewers' lineup in 2017.  Braun will have the benefit of hitting behind Jonathan Villar, who had a breakout season in 2016, which should help Braun have another good season in 2017.  He is, by far, the Brewers best player and may be on the trade block this season.  There were rumors this offseason that perhaps the Dodgers were considering acquiring Braun in a move that would have yielded the Brewers a great return.  I would consider there to be a strong chance that Braun will be playing on a team other than the Brewers at the end of 2017 provided he doesn't get injured.

Breakout Candidate

• 1B Eric Thames - Thames last played in North America in 2013 when he played in the minors after parts of two seasons in the majors with Toronto and Seattle.   Following 2013, he left America to play baseball in South Korea where he excelled greatly.  He never batted under .300, never hit less than 35 home runs, and also had more than 115 RBIs.  He even stole 40 bases one year.  In total, he played three seasons in South Korea, developing into one of the best players in their league.  I'm not saying that the level of talent in South Korea is equal to that in North America but, in recent seasons, players who have had success in South Korea have acclimated well to playing in MLB.  Thames did things in Korea that he had never done in North America, at any level, and it seems that he learned how to be a better hitter.  Although he isn't a young player (he is already 30), he has yet to really break out as a player in North America.  Based on his statistics while playing in South Korea and interviews he has given, I believe in the skillset he has developed and he will be a quality hitter for the Brewers in 2017.

Regression Candidate

• SP Junior Guerra - Guerra will probably be the Brewers ace this season despite having only pitched parts of two seasons in the majors.  He emerged as a quality major league starter in 2016 after starting 20 games, pitching 121 innings to the tune of a 9-3 record and a 2.81 ERA. Even his FIP was a respectable 3.70 showing that he pitched quite well for a mediocre team. The problem is that he pitched poorly in a limited role prior to 2016, when his ERA was 6.75 in three appearances in 2015.  He also never had an ERA as low as he did in 2016 at any point in the minors, showing that there is a strong possibility of regression in 2017.  I don't want to see this happen, but he is already 32 and probably can't develop anymore.

Bounceback Candidate

• 3B Travis Shaw - Shaw was traded this offseason from Boston and should now be in line for much more playing time in 2017.  Had he stayed in Boston he wouldn't be playing much considering he would be behind Pablo Sandoval and Brock Holt on the depth chart.  Now he should have the opportunity to be the Brewers everyday third baseman.  In order for that to happen, however, he needs to make more contact against lefties or he will fall into a platoon situation.  Last season, he batted .257 against right-handers and just .187 against lefties, a severe split.  2016 in general was a down season for Shaw even though he received the most playing time of his career.  His batting average dropped from .270 in 2015 to .242 in 2016, while hitting just three more home runs in double the plate appearances in 2016.  I think that knowing what his role will be in Milwaukee, Shaw will be able to return to his 2015 numbers and prove that he is a big league player.  If he can't rebound, he will probably be destined to a career as a "AAAA" player.

Season Outlook

• Since the Brewers front office decided to actually go through a rebuild a couple of seasons ago, they have emerged on the other side relatively quickly.  I'm not saying that they are going to be a playoff team, or even a team competing for a Wild Card spot for that matter, but they shouldn't be in the same category as San Diego, Cincinnati, or Oakland.  I actually like Milwaukee's lineup despite losing Jonathan Lucroy last season.  They added Eric Thames, who should be a suitable replacement for Chris Carter's power, and they acquired Travis Shaw, who should be playing inspired now that he will have regular playing time.  They will not have a quality pitching staff, though, so staying close in games could be an issue.  Junior Guerra and Matt Garza are not big league numbers one and two starters but perhaps that's what the Brewers are striving for.  They have two better pitchers in Jimmy Nelson and Taylor Jungmann in the minors but the website, Roster Resource, has the team going with Guerra and Garza.  Despite what happens in 2017, the Brewers will be playing for the future, considering they have a top ten farm system that includes numerous high-end prospects in the upper minors.  Look for the team's front office to sell off more major league players and acquire more prospects this season.

Predictions

• The Brewers will still be a bad team this season but shouldn't be the worst team in the division. I think Milwaukee will finish with around 70 wins.

*All stats and information came from baseball-reference.com, mlb.com, espn.com, spotrac.com, fangraphs.com, baseballprospectus.com, baseballamerica.com, and rosterresource.com