MLB Season Preview - St. Louis Cardinals

2016 Record: 86-76	Manager: Mike Matheny (2012)
2nd in Division	General Manager: John Mozeliak (2007)
Failed to make the playoffs	AAA Affiliate: Memphis Redbirds AA Affiliate: Springfield Cardinals

News

• Traded SP Jaime Garcia to Atlanta for Ps John Gant and Chris Ellis and 2B Luke Dykstra

Players Lost in the Offseason

POS.	Player	New Team	Contract
OF	Matt Holliday	New York Yankees	1 year, $13 million
OF/1B	Brandon Moss	Kansas City Royals	2 Years, $12 million
RP	Seth maness	Kansas City Royals	1 year, $1.25 million
C	Brayan Pena	Kansas City Royals	1 year, $535,000
RP	Jordan Walden	Free Agent

Incoming Free Agents

POS.	Player	Old Team	Contract
CF	Dexter Fowler	Chicago Cubs	5 years, $82.5 million
RP	Brett Cecil	Toronto Blue Jays	4 years, $30.5 million

Top Prospects

• RHP Alex Reyes - MLB.com (14), BA (4), BP (1)
• C Carson Kelly - MLB.com (39), BA (65), BP (81)
• RHP Luke Weaver - MLB.com (68), BA (50)
• SS Delvin Perez - MLB.com (91), BA (86), BP (79)
• RHP Sandy Alcantara - BP (40)

Projected Lineup

Order	POS	Number	Bats	Name	Age
1	CF	25	S	Dexter Fowler	31
2	SS	36	R	Aldemys Diaz	26
3	1B	13	L	Matt Carpenter	31
4	RF	55	R	Stephen Piscotty	26
5	C	4	R	Yadier Molina	34
6	3B	3	R	Jedd Gyorko	28
7	2B	16	L	Kolten Wong	26
8	LF	15	R	Randal Grichuk	25
Bench	C	41	R	Eric Fryer	31
Bench	1B	32	L	Matt Adams	28
Bench	3B/SS	27	R	Jhonny Peralta	34
Bench	IF	35	L	Greg Garcia	27
Bench	OF	28	R	Tommy Pham	29

Projected Pitching Staff

Role	POS	Number	Throws	Name	Age
1	SP	18	R	Carlos Martinez	25
2	SP	50	R	Adam Wainwright	35
3	SP	8	R	Mike Leake	29
4	SP	31	R	Lance Lynn	29
5	SP	52	R	Michael Wacha	25
LR	RP	63	R	Miguel Socolovich	30
MID	RP	67	R	Matt Bowman	25
MID	RP	30	R	Jonathan Broxton	32
MID	RP	21	L	Brett Cecil	30
SU	RP	44	R	Trevor Rosenthal	26
SU	RP	46	L	Kevin Siegrist	27
CL	RP	26	R	Seung hwan Oh	34
DL	SP	56	L	Marco Gonzalez	25
DL	SP	61	R	Alex Reyes	22
DL	RP	29	L	Zach Duke	33
DL	RP	70	L	Tyler Lyons	29

Most Important Player

• SP Carlos Martinez - Martinez developed into the Cardinals' ace last season and will be again in 2017.  He will need to be the best and most consistent pitcher in a rotation that has a lot of question marks now with Alex Reyes' injury.  Martinez was excellent in 2016, making 31 starts, nearly pitching 200 innings, with an ERA of 3.04.  He will look to build upon last season and will probably eclipse the 200 inning threshold for the first time in his career in 2017 and is the team's best chance at making the playoffs.

Breakout Candidate

• Would have been SP Alex Reyes - Reyes looked to have a rotation spot locked down for 2017, entering the season as one of the best prospects in baseball.  He appeared to be working towards becoming one of the team's better pitchers after starting five games with an ERA of 1.57 in 2016.  It seemed that Reyes was going to be an answer to a lot of the rotation's question marks by becoming a full-time starter this season.  Instead, Reyes was diagnosed with a UCL tear in February which will result in him undergoing Tommy John surgery, causing him to miss all of the 2017 season.

Regression Candidate

• C Yadier Molina - Molina has caught a lot of games in his career, regularly starting between 130 and 150 games each season. That has to "catch" up to him at somepoint and 2017 may be the year that happens.  He did have a good season at the plate, batting .307 and driving in 58 runs.  Behind the plate, however, he wasn't near as good as he has been throughout his career, having a negative defensive runs saved for just the second time in his career.  A big reason for this is that he struggled to throw out potential base stealers in 2016 and was generally just an average catcher in terms of framing statistics.  Defensively, Molina has been trending downward for several seasons now, not uncommon for catcher as they pass age 30.  He is still valuable to the Cardinals but I think his valuable could begin taking a hit in 2017.

Bounceback Candidate

• SP Adam Wainwright - Wainwright pitched quite poorly in 2016 despite making 33 starts just a season after missing nearly all of 2015 with an Achilles tendon injury.  While Wainwright is 35 years old, he is just three years removed from a season where he went 20-9 with a 2.38 ERA and a third place Cy Young Award finish.  This is one reason I believe he will bounce back from his 2016 season.  Another reason is that he didn't pitch quite as poorly as his 4.62 ERA in 2016 would indicate.  His FIP was 3.93, still not great, but much better than his ERA shows.  I think that Wainwright will be fine in 2017 considering he knows how to pitch and has pitched at an elite level in the past.  The Cardinals need Wainwright to pitch well in 2017 considering the hit the rotation took with Reyes' injury.

Season Outlook

• In 2016 the Cardinals barely missed out on making the playoffs as a Wild Card team and the front office did everything they could to improve the team in the offseason to make sure that they don't miss out again.  Signing free agent Dexter Fowler to a five-year deal was a great move, in my opinion, because it gives them a quality lead off hitter that hits well against both righties and lefties.  I don't necessarily love the length of the deal but he is what the team needs for the upcoming season.  After Fowler, the Cardinals lineup is filled with a lot of contact hitters typically with high on-base percentages.  The 2016 team also was a surprisingly powerful team with six players who hit at least 20 home runs.  Some of that power left over the offseason including Brandon Moss and Matt Holliday so they will have to find run production from lineup spots.  A lot of their power production in 2016 came from players who are probably due for some regression in that area including Jedd Gyorko (30 home runs) and Matt Carpenter (21).  Gyorko had never hit more than 23 home runs prior to 2016 and Carpenter, while an extremely talented hitter, is not known as a power hitter.  Carpenter will also transition from third base to first base this season, something I am sure he is capable of doing from a defensive standpoint, but I don't think he brings enough at the plate compared to other first basemen. Ultimately, I think the Cardinals' lineup is pretty talented and will get on base, but I find it to be an extremely boring one and one that will probably struggle to score runs.  For most of the offseason, I thought that any chance of the Cardinals making the playoffs in 2017 will be based on the performance of the pitching staff.  That is still certainly the case, but the rotation took a big hit with the loss of Alex Reyes.  Without Reyes, their rotation will now consist of Carlos Martinez (very good), Adam Wainwright (pitched poorly in 2016), Mike Leake and Michael Wacha (both had bad seasons in 2016), and Lance Lynn (coming off Tommy John surgery). There have been discussions that the Cardinals may possibly stretch out former closer Trevor Rosenthal and put him in their rotation.  Rosenthal is incredibly talented but underperformed greatly in 2016 and will have to pitch a lot better in 2017 to make that move work.  The Cardinals will probably need to acquire some pitching help this season and maybe even a bat for their lineup but I'm not sure where he would play in the field.  The Cardinals are still quite good and will compete for a playoff berth in 2017 but winning the division is probably out of reach since they play in the same division as the Cubs.

Prediction

• The Cardinals are almost guaranteed to finish second in the N.L. Central after the Cubs but better than the Pirates.  I think that St. Louis will finish fairly far behind the Cubs and be closer to the Pirates in the standings.  As a result of their rotation struggles, I think that they will finish with a record of 84-78 and miss the playoffs for the second consecutive season.

*All stats and information came from baseball-reference.com, mlb.com, espn.com, spotrac.com, fangraphs.com, baseballprospectus.com, baseballamerica.com, and rosterresource.com