MLB Season Preview - Boston Red Sox

2016 Record: 93-69	Manager: John Farrell (2012)
1st  in Division	General Manager: Dave Dombrowski (2015)
Lost to Cleveland in the ALDS	AAA Affiliate: Pawtucket Red Sox AA Affiliate: Portland Sea Dogs

News

• General manager Mike Hazen left to take the same position with the Diamondbacks
• Bench coach Torey Lovullo left to become the manager of the Diamondbacks
• David Ortiz retired
• Acquired RP Tyler Thornburg from Milwaukee for 3B Travis Shaw and prospects Josh Pennington (P) and Mauricio Dubon (SS)
• Acquired SP Chris Sale from the White Sox for prospects Yoan Moncada (3B), Michael Kopech (SP), Luis Alexander Basabe (CF), and Victor Diaz (P)
• Acquired 2B prospect Josh Tobias for SP Clay Buchholz

Players Lost in the Offseason

POS.	Player	New Team	Contract
C	Ryan Hanigan	Philadelphia Phillies	1 year, $1.25 million
C	Bryan Holaday	Philadelphia Phillies
3B/2B	Aaron Hill	San Francisco Giants	1 year, $2 million
RP	Koji Uehara	Chicago Cubs	1 year, $6 million
RP	Junichi Tazawa	Miami Marlins	2 years, $12 million
RP	Brad Ziegler	Miami Marlins	2 years, $16 million

Incoming Free Agents

POS.	Player	Old Team	Contract
1B	Mitch Moreland	Texas Rangers	1 year, $5.5 million

Top Prospects

• OF Andrew Benintendi - MLB.com (1), BA (1), BP (3)
• 3B Rafael Devers - MLB.com (17), BA (18), BP (13)
• LHP Jason Groome - MLB.com (41), BA (43), BP (29)

Projected Lineup

Order	POS	Number	Bats	Name	Age
1	2B	15	R	Dustin Pedroia	33
2	CF	19	L	Jackie Bradley Jr.	26
3	SS	2	R	Xander Bogaerts	24
4	RF	50	R	Mookie Betts	24
5	DH	13	R	Hanley Ramirez	33
6	3B	48	S	Pablo Sandoval	30
7	1B	18	L	Mitch Moreland	31
8	LF	16	L	Andrew Benintendi	22
9	C	3	S	Sandy Leon	27
Bench	C	7	R	Christian Vazquez	26
Bench	IF	-	R	Josh Rutledge	27
Bench	UT	12	L	Brock Holt	28
Bench	OF	30	R	Chris Young	33

Projected Pitching Staff

Role	POS	Number	Throws	Name	Age
1	SP	41	L	Chris Sale	27
2	SP	24	L	David Price	31
3	SP	22	R	Rick Porcello	28
4	SP	13	L	Drew Pomeranz	28
5	SP	25	R	Steven Wright	32
LR	RP	37	R	Heath Hembree	28
MID	RP	58	L	Fernando Abad	31
MID	RP	68	R	Matt Barnes	26
MID	RP	28	L	Robbie Ross Jr.	27
SU	RP	56	R	Joe Kelly	28
SU	RP	57	R	Tyler Thornburg	28
CL	RP	46	R	Craig Kimbrel	28

Most Important Player

• RF Mookie Betts - Now that David Ortiz is gone, the Red Sox roster is experiencing a large turnover.  Gone are all of the players from the 2004 World Series team and only Dustin Pedroia remains from the 2007 team.  In the place of those players are guys like Xander Bogaerts, Jackie Bradley Jr, Andrew Benintendi, and Mookie Betts.  Betts is perhaps the most important of all of these players at this moment.  He is the biggest threat in a lineup that is fairly loaded 1-9 and has shown the ability to hit for a high average (.318 in 2016), power (31 home runs), is a threat on the bases (26 stolen bases), and plays elite defense in right field (32 defensive runs saved).  Although Betts bats clean up in the Red Sox lineup, he is the lineup's trendsetter and the lineup will follow his lead.  As long as he continues to be a legitimate threat in the middle of the order, the team's offense will continue to be among the best in baseball.

Regression Candidate

• SP Rick Porcello - Porcello had been a pretty good pitcher throughout his career before last season, generally serving as a number 3 or 4 pitcher in a good rotation.  Last year he emerged as one of the best pitchers in baseball, winning the A.L. Cy Young Award in somewhat controversial fashion after leading the league in wins (22) and strikeout-to-walk ratio.  He has exhibited an ability to control the ball and has limited his walks since becoming a regular big league pitcher, something he continued last season.  I think that he will have another good season this year, actually a great season considering he is probably going to be their number three starter, but I see him experiencing some regression this season.  I doubt that he will have a 22-4 record again but I think that his 3.15 era is potentially repeatable and he should be an innings eater.

Breakout Candidate

• LF Andrew Benintendi - Benintendi is the number one prospect in baseball as ranked by Baseball America, Keith Law, and MLB.com.  He received his first call up to the majors in early August last season and appeared in 34 games, batting .295 in those games with a .359 on-base percentage.  In the postseason he was even better, reaching base in a third of his at bats and looks to be fixture in the Red Sox outfield for years to come.  There's really no telling what Benintendi's rookie season may look like, but a batting average around .275 with 20 home runs and 15 stolen bases seems like a reasonable projection.  He certainly won't be a replacement for David Ortiz, but Benintendi's bat will be a welcome addition that should provide depth to an already deep lineup.

Bounceback Candidate

• CP Craig Kimbrel - Kimbrel had the worst season of his career last year, pitching in only 57 games with just 31 saves, his fewest since becoming a full-time big league pitcher in 2011. His ERA was also the highest of his career (3.40) but this number is slightly misleading, as it skyrocketed in late September when he had a bad outing in which he allowed four earned runs. He also missed significant time in the middle of the season due to a knee injury which certainly played a factor in his down season.  Look for Kimbrel to get back to his dominant ways by following the pattern of many pitchers when they bounce back in their second season pitching the A.L. East and in Fenway Park.  The Red Sox will need him to pitch much better this season as he is their best reliever and their bullpen looks like it could be susceptible.

Season Outlook

• This season will mark a new era for the Boston Red Sox franchise, as they will be without David Ortiz as their everyday DH for the first time since the 2004 season and he will be greatly missed.  However, perhaps the Red Sox are a team set up to overcome the loss of such a powerful hitter better than most teams would be.  This is because of the youth that they have in the outfield, the signing of Mitch Moreland to play first base, and hopefully the bounce back of Pablo Sandoval.  Even still, there is still no complete replacement for Ortiz, considering he put together the best final season for a player in baseball history and he was the team's leader both on the field and in the clubhouse.  As mentioned above, the front office went out this offseason and signed first baseman Mitch Moreland to play a solid defensive first base, allowing Hanley Ramirez to DH most of the time and to focus largely on hitting.  They will also rely on a slimmed-down Pablo Sandoval being able to play passable defense at third base and on Andrew Benintendi in his rookie season.  Team president Dave Dombrowski has also gone all-in on winning a World Series with this group by trading away one of the top prospects in baseball, Yoan Moncada, to the White Sox for ace pitcher Chris Sale.  The Red Sox  will now have one of the best rotations in baseball that features, two Cy Young Award winners (David Price and Rick Porcello), one of the best pitchers in the game (Sale), and an all-star from last season (Steven Wright).  Boston's bullpen is the team's biggest question mark or potential weakness.  They acquired righty Tyler Thornburg from Milwaukee for Travis Shaw and a couple of lower tier prospects and he should strengthen the back end of their bullpen.  The team has to be hoping that Kimbrel can have a resurgence from last season and that he can return to his typical level of being a lockdown closer.  Looking at the A.L. East, the Red Sox should be the favorites to win the division and if everything goes well, they could run away with the division. They are also arguably the best team in the American League and probably the second-most talented team in the majors behind the Cubs.

Prediction

• I think that the Red Sox will win somewhere around 95 games this year.  Considering the elite quality of their first three starting pitchers (Sale, Price, Porcello) plus Wright and Drew Pomeranz, getting quality starts shouldn't be an issue.  In addition, they should be able to score runs fairly easily for the second consecutive season with the depth of their lineup. I believe that Boston is the class of the A.L. East and will win the division.

*All stats and information came from baseball-reference.com, mlb.com, espn.com, spotrac.com, fangraphs.com, and rosterresource.com