MLB Season Preview - Houston Astros

2016 Record: 84-78	Manager: A.J. Hinch (2014)
3rd in Division	General Manager: Jeff Luhnow (2011)
Failed to make the playoffs	AAA Affiliate: Fresno Grizzlies AA Affiliate: Corpus Christi Hooks

News

• Traded RP Pat Neshek to Philadelphia for a player to be named later or cash
• Acquired C Brian McCann from the Yankees for Ps Albert Abreu and Jorge Guzman
• Claimed OF Nori Aoki off waivers

Players Lost in the Offseason

POS.	Player	New Team	Contract
C	Jason Castro	Minnesota Twins	3 years, $24.5 million
3B	Luis Valbuena	Los Angeles Angels	2 years, $15 million
LF	Colby Rasmus	Tampa Bay Rays	1 year, $5 million
SP	Doug Fister	Free Agent

Incoming Free Agents

POS.	Player	Old Team	Contract
RF	Josh Reddick	Los Angeles Dodgers	4 years, $52 million
DH	Carlos Beltran	Texas Rangers	1 year, $16 million
SP	Charlie Morton	Philadelphia Phillies	2 years, $14 million

Top Prospects

• RHP Francis Marte - MLB.com (20), BA (15), BP (28)
• OF Kyle Tucker - MLB.com (35), BA (19), BP (37)
• RHP David Paulino - MLB.com (54), BA (51), BP (83)
• OF Derek Fisher - MLB.com (83)
• RHP Forrest Whitley - MLB.com (84)
• RHP Franklin Perez - BA (54), BP (84)
• 1B A.J. Reed - BA (72)

Projected Lineup

Order	POS	Number	Bats	Name	Age
1	CF	4	R	George Springer	27
2	2B	27	R	Jose Altuve	26
3	SS	1	R	Carlos Correa	22
4	DH	15	S	Carlos Beltran	39
5	C	16	L	Brian McCann	33
6	3B	2	R	Alex Bregman	22
7	RF	22	L	Josh Reddick	30
8	1B	10	R	Yulieski Gurriel	32
9	LF	3	L	Nori Aoki	35
Bench	C/LF	11	R	Evan Gattis	30
Bench	UT	9	S	Marwin Gonzalez	28
Bench	OF	35	R	Teoscar Hernandez	24
Bench	OF	6	R	Jake Marisnick	25

Projected Pitching Staff

Role	POS	Number	Throws	Name	Age
1	SP	60	L	Dallas Keuchel	29
2	SP	31	R	Colin McHugh	29
3	SP	54	R	Mike Fiers	31
4	SP	43	R	Lance McCullers	23
5	SP	50	R	Charlie Morton	33
LR	RP	41	R	Brad Peacock	29
MID	RP	45	R	Michael Feliz	23
MID	RP	29	L	Tony Sipp	33
MID	RP	47	R	Chris Devenski	26
SU	RP	36	R	Will Harris	32
SU	RP	44	R	Luke Gregerson	32
CL	RP	53	R	Ken Giles	26

Most Important Player

• 2B Jose Altuve - Altuve has led the league in hits for three consecutive seasons and batting average two of the past three.  He has also received MVP Award votes each of the past three years, including a third place finish last season.  At just 26, Altuve already has over 1,000 hits and seems like a lock to get into the 3,000 hit club.  Altuve has been the face of the franchise for several seasons now and despite the presence of Carlos Correa and other prospects getting called up, Altuve still remains the team's most important player.  He bats second in the Astros lineup, setting the table for the likes of Correa, Carlos Beltran, and Brian McCann.  He also exhibits the best bat control that the game has seen since perhaps Tony Gwynn.  I think Altuve is locked in for another .300 average season with 200 plus hits and guide Houston into the playoffs.

Breakout Candidate

• 3B Alex Bregman - The Astros have an embarrassment of riches at the key positions of the infield, with their shortstop, third baseman, and second baseman all locked down for the future. Bregman was drafted as a shortstop and played significant time there in the minors, but has had to transition to third base due to the presence of Carlos Correa at shortstop already in the majors.  He played well defensively at third base when he was positioned there last season and will be the team's starting third baseman this season.  He has also hit well in his two years in professional baseball, hitting .294 and .306 in his minor league games and .264 with Houston over 49 games last season.  He has also shown the ability to drive the ball, hitting 20 home runs in AA and AAA last year and 8 home runs in the majors.  I think that Bregman will excel in the majors this season despite not having rookie eligibility anymore.  He will be a vital part of Houston's offense in 2017.

Regression Candidate

• DH Carlos Beltran - Beltran turns 40 in late April and will be the Astros everyday DH in 2017. He will probably only play in the field this season during away games in National League ballparks which will hide any shortfalls he has in the field.  In 2016, while splitting the season between the Yankees and Rangers, Beltran nearly hit .300, hit 29 home runs, and still managed to drive in 93 runs, all at age 39.  He also appeared in 151 games, the product of him DHing most of the season, which was his most games since the 2012 season.  I don't think he will play in that many games in 2017 and, as a result, his production will slip some, reducing his RBI and home run numbers.  That doesn't mean Beltran won't still be a valuable player, however, and he should still be one of the Astros more important hitters and one who will add to the depth of the team's lineup.

Bounceback Candidate

• SP Dallas Keuchel - In 2016, Keuchel was coming off a Cy Young Award in a season when he went 20-9, led the league in wins, had a 2.48 ERA, and threw 232 innings, also league leading. Last season he regressed quite a bit, going just 9-12 with a 4.55 ERA over 168 innings. Virtually all of his underlying numbers indicate that he was a better pitcher than it appears, with a FIP of 3.87, a number still high but better than a 4.55.  His ground ball rate decreased while his fly ball rate increased, his home run to fly ball rate rose, and he gave up more hard contact than at any other point in his career, all bad omens for a pitcher who relies on ground balls and forcing weak contact.  Keuchel also had an elevated batting average on balls in play, an indicator that he was partially the victim of bad luck and poor fielding behind him.  These should all come back closer to his career averages in 2017 since he will have a better defense behind him and will probably simply bounce back.  

Season Outlook

• Last season, the Astros finished with a winning record for the second consecutive season, a testament to the quality work put in by the team's front office to rebuild, yet missed the playoffs.  They were quite a good team but struggled in key places, including the front of their pitching rotation and offensive production at vital positions.  As mentioned above, ace Dallas Keuchel had a really poor year, just one season after winning the A.L. Cy Young Award but the rotation got surprisingly good production at the back end from Lance McCullers, as well as Chris Devenski and Scott Feldman in spot starts.  The front office attempted to remedy this situation by signing veteran Charlie Morton to a two-year deal.  Morton is a reliably average starter who relies heavily on ground balls and should succeed with an athletic infield behind him.  Morton pitching to his career averages, plus the ability of the other starters bouncing back to their norms, will go a long way in helping the Astros get back to the playoffs.  On offense, the Astros got surprisingly little production from positions of catcher, first base, and third base, traditionally high output positions.  They replaced long-time Astro Jason Castro with veteran Brian McCann, who are both good pitch framers, but McCann is by far the better hitter of the two.  He should help provide a threat in the middle of the batting order while also helping along a young pitching rotation.  The team also signed veteran Carlos Beltran to be their regular DH and occasional outfielder, a move that was very low risk with a high upside.  Beltran was very productive in 2016 and his bat should play well in Minute Maid Park.  Lastly, the front office signed Josh Reddick to a four-year deal, a length that I would be uncomfortable with, but I like his bat in the bottom half of the lineup.  Reddick is a better version of Colby Rasmus, whom Reddick will be replacing.  With all of the additions and moves that Houston's front office performed this offseason, the team is arguably the most talented team in the A.L. West.  I am a really big fan of their lineup, especially with all of the youth in the infield and I like all of the pieces they brought in to help around the edges.  I question their pitching rotation but think that Keuchel will bounce back and be an ace again and I think that Morton is a good pitcher for this team.  Perhaps most exciting about Houston is that they still have a good farm system with several prospects in the upper levels of the minors.  This means that should be good for the future and they have a good base from which they can trade for MLB-ready talent.

Predictions

• I think that Houston will be the third best team in the American League this season behind the Indians and Red Sox and will win the division by a considerable margin.  I predict that they will win 92 games but will make a move by the deadline to acquire more starting pitching.

*All stats and information came from baseball-reference.com, mlb.com, espn.com, spotrac.com, fangraphs.com, baseballprospectus.com, baseballamerica.com, and rosterresource.com