MLB Season Preview - Cincinnati Reds

2016 Record: 68-94	Manager: Bryan Price (2013)
5th  in Division	General Manager: Dick Williams (2015)
Failed to make the playoffs	AAA Affiliate: Louisville Bats AA Affiliate: Pensacola Blue Wahoos

News

• Traded C Luis Torrens to San Diego for a player to be named later and cash
• Traded 2B Brandon Phillips to Atlanta for Ps Carlos Portuondo and Andrew McKirahan

Players Lost in the Offseason

POS.	Player	New Team	Contract
P	Alfredo Simon	Free Agent
RP	Ross Ohlendorf	Free Agent

Incoming Free Agents

POS.	Player	Old Team	Contract
OF	Desmond Jennings	Tampa Bay Rays	1 year, $1.5 million
OF	Ryan Raburn	Colorado Rockies	1 year, $900,000
SP	Scott Feldman	Toronto Blue Jays	1 year, $2.3 million
RP	Drew Storen	Seattle Mariners	1 year, $3 million

Top Prospects

• 3B Nick Senzel - MLB.com (26), BA (9), BP (20)
• LHP Amir Garrett - MLB.com (66), BA (81), BP (32)
• OF Jessse Winker - MLB.com (67)
• RHP Robert Stephenson - MLB.com (87)
• LHP Cody Reed - BA (69)

Projected Lineup

Order	POS	Number	Bats	Name	Age
1	CF	6	S	Billy Hamilton	26
2	2B	9	R	Jose Peraza	22
3	1B	19	L	Joey Votto	33
4	LF	23	R	Adam Duvall	28
5	RF	43	L	Scott Schebler	26
6	SS	2	R	Zack Cozart	31
7	3B	7	R	Eugenio Suarez	25
8	C	39	R	Devin Mesoraco	28
Bench	C	16	S	Tucker Barnhart	26
Bench	C	74	R	Stuart Turner	25
Bench	UT	30	S	Arismendy Alcantara	25
Bench	OF	27	R	Desmond Jennings	30
Bench	OF	17	R	Ryan Raburn	35

Projected Pitching Staff

Role	POS	Number	Throws	Name	Age
1	SP	29	L	Brandon Finniegan	23
2	SP	37	R	Scott Feldman	34
3	SP	28	R	Anthony DeSclafani	26
4	SP	46	R	Tim Adleman	29
5	SP	55	R	Robert Stephenson	24
LR	RP	51	R	Lisalverto Bonilla	26
MID	RP	36	R	Blake Wood	31
MID	RP	70	R	Jumbo Diaz	33
MID	RP	52	L	Tony Cingrani	27
SU	RP	21	R	Michael Lorenzen	25
SU	RP	31	R	Drew Storen	29
CL	RP	26	R	Raisel Iglesias	27
DL	SP	34	R	Homer Bailey	30

Most Important Player

• 1B Joey Votto - I feel that Votto is still somehow underrated despite having one an MVP Award, finishing in the top ten four more times, a four-time all-star, and winner of a Gold Glove Award. He is a lifetime .313 hitter, is a member of the .300/.400/.500 club, and is somehow continuing to develop into an even better hitter as his career progresses.  Last season, Votto turned around a bad start to the season and turned it into a year where he batted .326, led the league in on-base percentage, hit 29 home runs, and drove in 97 runs, all in a lineup filled with somewhat mediocre hitters.  Votto is arguably the only above average talent on the Reds roster this season and will continue to be as long as he remains a Red and they go through a rebuild.  I wonder if the Reds would be interested in moving Votto for prospects, but that doesn't matter since Votto has a full no-trade clause and would have to approve any potential trade.  I think he is completely committed to staying in Cincinnati, however, and is the face of the franchise and by far the team's most important player now and going forward.

Breakout Candidate

• 2B Jose Peraza - Peraza appeared in 72 games last season, playing all over the diamond, including some time in the outfield.  This season Peraza will get the opportunity to be the Reds everyday second baseman, the position he will probably hold for the foreseeable future, following the trade of Brandon Phillips.  His bat played extremely well in the majors during those at-bats, hitting .324, drove in 24 runs, and stole 21 bases.  Now that he has a path to regular playing time, I think Peraza will burst out onto the scene and bat 1-2 in the Reds order with Billy Hamilton.

Regression Candidate

• LF Adam Duvall - By principle, I don't like players like Duvall who strikeout a lot, walk very little, but hit a lot of home runs.  In my opinion, when pitchers begin to recognize these players' weaknesses, they become obsolete and relatively unplayable.  Certainly Duvall will still hit his fair share of home runs, but someone who strikes out 160 plus times a season goes against the transition occurring in baseball.  I think Duvall will regress severely this season, still hitting 25 or so home runs, but still striking out a bunch.

Bounceback Candidate

• None - I didn't see anyone on the Reds roster who had a season that would lead to a bounceback year in 2017.  Those players who played poorly in 2016 are simply bad players and probably won't bounce back.

Season Outlook

• So the Reds are in a similar place as the Brewers, White Sox, Braves, Phillies, Padres, and Twins.  All of these franchises are going through a rebuild but the Reds are probably two or so years behind schedule.  They should have started the process of rebuilding in 2014 when they were already a non-competitive team but the front office didn't want to go through a tanking operation until after the 2015 season, when they hosted the all-star game.  Now they have gone through three consecutive seasons in which they finished fourth or fifth in the division but only started selling off assets last season.  Now, the Reds roster no longer consists of Jay Bruce, Brandon Phillips, Johnny Cueto, Todd Frazier, Mat Latos, and Aroldis Chapman are all gone and they didn't even get great returns for most of these players.  They trades Bruce, Phillips, and Chapman at times when the players' values were at their lowest and got little in return.  Now their major league team is really unproductive, their farm system remains outside the top ten, and they have run out of major league players to trade for prospects.  2017 looks to be a rough season in Cincinnati with only Joey Votto, Billy Hamilton, and Jose Peraza being exciting players for fans to show up and see.  The Reds will probably be in the basement of the N.L. Central and have a chance to remain their for the next few seasons.  They desperately need to rebuild their pitching rotation, a unit that has the potential to be one of the worst in baseball this season.

Predictions

• The Reds will probably have a record similar to the Brewers except that the Reds will probably win a few less games.  I think that considering their pitching staff and lack of quality hitters in their lineup, Cincinnati will win around 68 games and be in the running for a top five draft pick.

*All stats and information came from baseball-reference.com, mlb.com, espn.com, spotrac.com, fangraphs.com, baseballprospectus.com, baseballamerica.com, and rosterresource.com