MLB Season Preview - Oakland Athletics

2016 Record: 69-93	Manager: Bob Melvin (2011)
5th  in Division	General Manager: David Forst (2015) VP of Baseball Operations: Billy Beane (2015)
Failed to make the playoffs	AAA Affiliate: Nashville Sounds AA Affiliate: Midland RockHounds

News

• Traded UT Danny Valencia to Seattle for P Paul Blackburn
• Traded OF Brett Eibner to the Dodgers for INF Jordan Tarsovich
• Traded P Dillon Overton to Seattle for C Jason Goldstein

Players Lost in the Offseason

POS.	Player	New Team	Contract
SP	Henderson Alvarez	Free Agent
CF	Sam Fuld	Free Agent
SP	Jarrod Parker	Free Agent

Incoming Free Agents

POS.	Player	Old Team	Contract
RP	Santiago Casilla	San Francisco Giants	2 years, $11 million
RF	Matt Joyce	Pittsburgh Pirates	2 years, $11 million
CF	Rajai Davis	Cleveland Indians	1 year, $6 million
3B	Trevor Plouffe	Minnesota Twins	1 year, $5.25 million
LF	Alejandro De Aza	New York Mets	1 year, $1.75 million
2B	Adam Rosales	San Diego Padres	1 year, $1.25 million

Top Prospects

• SS/2B Franklin Barreto - MLB.com (52), BA (40),, BP (47)
• LHP A.J. Puk - MLB.com (69), BA (83), BP (61)
• RHP Grant Holmes - MLB.com (85), BP (60)
• 3B/SS Matt Chapman - MLB.com (100), BA (94)
• RHP Jharel Cotton - BA (84)
• RHP Frankie Montas - BP (86)

Projected Lineup

Order	POS	Number	Bats	Name	Age
1	CF	11	R	Rajai Davis	36
2	C	21	L	Stephen Vogt	32
3	DH	25	R	Ryon Healy	25
4	LF	2	R	Khris Davis	29
5	RF	23	L	Matt Joyce	32
6	SS	10	R	Marcus Semien	26
7	3B	3	R	Trevor Plouffe	30
8	1B	17	L	Yonder Alonso	29
9	2B	8	S	Jed Lowrie	32
Bench	C	19	R	Josh Phegley	29
Bench	1B/OF	20	R	Mark Canha	28
Bench	UT	16	R	Adam Rosales	33
Bench	OF	5	R	Jake Smolinski	28

Projected Pitching Staff

Role	POS	Number	Throws	Name	Age
1	SP	49	R	Kendall Graveman	26
2	SP	55	L	Sean Manaea	25
3	SP	32	R	Jesse Hahn	27
4	SP	45	R	Jharel Cotton	25
5	SP	60	R	Andrew Triggs	28
LR	RP	50	R	Raul Alcantara	24
MID	RP	31	R	Liam Hendriks	28
MID	RP	61	R	John Axford	33
MID	RP	66	R	Ryan Dull	27
SU	RP	46	R	Santiago Casilla	36
SU	RP	62	L	Sean Doolittle	30
CL	RP	44	R	Ryan Madson	36
DL	SP	40	R	Chris Bassitt	28
DL	SP	54	R	Sonny Gray	27
DL	SP	33	R	Daniel Mengden	24

Most Important Player

• SP Sonny Gray - Gray may be the only Athletics player that a casual baseball fan can name on this season's roster.  Gray, by skillset in relation to the rest of the roster, is Oakland's ace and would have been their Opening Day starter had he not gotten injured.  He has pitched well throughout his career before last season and will have to pitch at an elite level for the A's to even really approach .500 this season in my opinion.  The rest of the rotation isn't that great and the team getting a good start at the top of the rotation will be vital.

Breakout Candidate

• DH/3B Ryon Healy - Even though I love baseball, I don't even remember hearing Healy's name last season despite him playing in 72 games.  He hit quite well with Oakland, with a .305 batting average, .524 slugging percentage, 13 home runs, and 37 RBIs.  He was a good contact hitter in the minors and has continued to just get better as he progressed through the levels.  He is a natural third baseman but isn't good at fielding his position so will most likely be the A's everyday DH.  I think Healy, who is expected to be Oakland's number three hitter, will explode onto the scene this season and hit 25 home runs this season while batting around .300.

Regression Candidate

• LF Khris Davis - Khris Davis is a really similar hitter to Chris Davis of the Orioles in that he doesn't make a lot of contact and strikes out a lot, but also hits a lot of home runs when he does make contact.  Last season, Davis hit a career high 42 home runs and also drove in more than 100 runs for the first time in his career.  Now entering his fifth season, everyone knows who Davis is and there is little chance that he develops into a .300 hitter.  Because I believe that he won't develop anymore, I think that his power will regress in 2017 and he will hit closer to 30 home runs instead of 40.

Bounceback Candidate

• SP Sonny Gray - As I mentioned above, Gray struggled in 2016 as his ERA was a lofty 5.69 over 22 starts with a 5-11 record.  His FIP wasn't much better, making a bounce back season difficult to believe in.  However, I am choosing to believe in the fact that he was injured for much of last season and, when healthy, has pitched very well in prior seasons.  I think that he will recover from injury and return to being Oakland's ace once again.

Season Outlook

• It seems like a long time ago that Oakland went to the playoffs, losing to the Royals in the A.L. Wild Card game.  That was just three seasons ago though, but it might as well have been decades ago. They have now finished last in the division each of the past two seasons and have a really untalented roster.  And while Billy Beane is still in charge of the franchise, the Moneyball era seems like a distant memory.  Not only is their roster non-competitive, but the franchise still isn't willing to spend much money despite playing in one of the bigger markets in baseball. Beane isn't given the freedom to pursue the top of the market free agents and instead must rely on signing players like Matt Joyce and Santiago Casilla, both talented players but not Edwin Encarnacion and Kenley Jansen.  Although the front office hasn't intentionally taken the franchise through a tanking operation, it seems like that's what they are doing.  They are non-competitive and have nearly no chance to make the playoffs this season or anytime in the near future, yet keep signing free agents and aren't selling off any players.  They also have a problem with their stadium situation and need to find a better option long-term.  Luckily for them, they at least have a solid farm system that continues to develop.  They have several talented pitching prospects who will help to fill out their starting rotation in the future.  They will also have the sixth overall draft pick in this year's draft which will give them the opportunity to add more talent and depth to their farm system.  

Predictions

• 2017 could be a very rough year for the Athletics and their fanbase and the team is almost guaranteed to finish last in the division.  A .500 record seems like the biggest achievable goal for the team and I don't even think that's reality.  I am predicting them to go 73-89.

*All stats and information came from baseball-reference.com, mlb.com, espn.com, spotrac.com, fangraphs.com, baseballprospectus.com, baseballamerica.com, and rosterresource.com