MLB Season Preview - Miami Marlins

2016 Record: 79-82	Manager: Don Mattingly (2015)
3rd  in Division	General Manager: Michael Hill (2013)
Failed to make the playoffs	AAA Affiliate: New Orleans Baby Cakes AA Affiliate: Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp

News

• Acquired P Dan Straily from Cincinnati for pitchers Luis Castillo and Austin Brice and OF Isaiah White
• Re-signed RP Dustin McGowan to a 1 year, $1.75 million deal

Players Lost in the Offseason

POS.	Player	New Team	Contract
C	Jeff Mathis	Arizona Diamondbacks	2 years, $4 million
3B/1B	Chris Johnson	Baltimore Orioles
OF	Jeff Francoeur	Free Agent
RP	Mike Dunn	Colorado Rockies	3 years, $19 million
RP	Fernando Rodney	Arizona Diamondbacks	1 year, $2.75 million

Incoming Free Agents

POS.	Player	Old Team	Contract
C	A.J. Ellis	Philadelphia Phillies	1 year, $2.5 million
SP	Edinson Volquez	Kansas City Royals	2 years, $22 million
RP	Brad Ziegler	Boston Red Sox	2 years, $16 million
RP	Junichi Tazawa	Boston Red Sox	2 years, $12 million
RP	Jeff Locke	Pittsburgh Pirates	1 year, $3 million

Top Prospects

• LHP Braxton Garrett - MLB.com (43), BA (76), BP (71)

Projected Lineup

Order	POS	Number	Bats	Name	Age
1	2B	9	L	Dee Gordon	28
2	3B	14	R	Martin Prado	33
3	CF	21	L	Christian Yelich	25
4	RF	27	R	Giancarlo Stanton	27
5	LF	13	R	Marcel Ozuna	26
6	1B	41	L	Justin Bour	28
7	C	11	R	J.T. Realmuto	25
8	SS	3	R	Adeiny Hechavarria	27
Bench	C	17	R	A.J. Ellis	35
Bench	IF	19	R	Miguel Rojas	28
Bench	UT	32	L	Derek Dietrich	27
Bench	OF	51	L	Ichiro Suzuki	43

Projection Pitching Staff

Role	POS	Number	Throws	Name	Age
1	SP	54	L	Wei-Yin Chen	31
2	SP	36	R	Edinson Volquez	33
3	SP	61	L	Adam Conley	26
4	SP	58	R	Dan Straily	28
5	SP	34	R	Tom Koehler	30
LR	RP	62	R	Jose Urena	25
MID	RP	31	L	Jeff Locke	29
MID	RP	22	R	Dustin McGowan	34
MID	RP	35	R	David Phelps	30
MID	RP	46	R	Kyle Barraclough	26
SU	RP	25	R	Junichi Tazawa	30
SU	RP	29	R	Brad Ziegler	37
CL	RP	44	R	A.J. Ramos	30

Most Important Player

• CF Christian Yelich - Yelich had the best season of his career in 2016, batting nearly .300, hit over 20 home runs for the first time in his career, and drove in 98 runs.  Yelich emerged as the Marlins best overall hitter, exhibiting solid contact while also finding his power stroke for the first time in his career.  Now, at age 25, in addition to slugger Giancarlo Stanton coming off a really bad season and the passing of Jose Fernandez, Yelich is the Marlins most important player.  Their chances of success this season and going forward were severely hindered when Fernandez passed away last fall and a good portion of future success is now placed on Yelich's shoulders.  He should be slotted in as the Marlins' number three hitter in the lineup and be the table setter that begins a sequence that includes Yelich, Stanton, and Marcell Ozuna.  If Stanton is able to return to being a quality hitter once again, Yelich should be able to have some protection behind him and have a lot of opportunities to see good pitches.

Breakout Candidate

• SS Adeiny Hechavarria - 2017 will mark Hechavarria's fifth full season in the big leagues and has never really broken out.  His highest season batting average was .281 in 2015 when he only played in 130 games, has never driven in more than 48 runs, and doesn't get on-base at a high clip.  He also hasn't been a big threat on the basepaths, with his career high in stolen bases only being 11.  He has developed into a quality defender at shortstop, amassing nine defensive runs saved each of the past two seasons.  I would really like to see him further develop his bat this season and, considering he is still just 27, he has the potential to still grow into a quality hitter. I think this season could be the year that it finally happens.

Regression Candidate

• C J.T. Realmuto - Realmuto is now the Marlins' full-time catcher and will be for the foreseeable future.  He will turn 26 before the regular season starts and is coming off the best season of his young career, batting .303 with 31 doubles and even stole 12 bases.  He struggled behind the plate, however, and hasn't developed into a good pitch framer or defensive catcher. Perhaps he will become better in those areas with the veteran presence of A.J. Ellis to help him learn these tools.  I'm not certain that Realmuto will actually experience a regression this season but I don't see anyone else on the Marlins who had a good enough season last year to be a regression candidate.  The only reason I picked him for this category is because he was significantly better than at any other point in his career and has just one solid season under his belt.

Bounceback Candidate

• RF Giancarlo Stanton - Stanton missed significant time again last season and struggled for the second consecutive season to be the elite hitter he exhibited earlier in his career.  While he will most likely never win a batting title, he has some of the best raw power the game has ever seen and has hit 37 home runs twice in his career.  I think that as long as Stanton can stay healthy, he will return to his role as the best power hitter in baseball.

Season Outlook

• For most of the 2016 season the Marlins were in playoff contention and looked to be a strong contender for one of the two N.L. Wild Card spots.  They ended up falling off at the end of the season but seemed like a strong contender in 2017.  That has all changed with the tragic death of ace pitcher Jose Fernandez.  Any time a team tragically loses its ace when he is one of the best pitchers in baseball, that team is going to struggle in the immediate (and distant) future. The Marlins are no different.  Their rotation after Fernandez wasn't very good when he was alive and, now that he has passed, their rotation will most likely struggle mightily.  Their new ace will now be Wei-Yin Chen, a good number three or four starter, but not an ace.  Chen, in 22 starts last season, had a 4.96 ERA and only won five games.  The team is also at a place where they don't have any really talented pitching prospects coming through the pipeline anytime soon as Braxton Garrett is their best overall prospect and will only start the year in Low A.  Any chance for the Marlins to be successful this season will be through their offense which has a lot of good pieces and could be one of the better lineups in the majors if everything breaks right. The Marlins need Stanton to return to his role as MLB's best power hitter and will need a repeat year of Yelich to compete.  Ideally, Stanton will hit 45 home runs, Yelich will be a .300 hitter again, Dee Gordon will steal 60 bases, and Marcell Ozuna will finally develop into an upper tier hitter.  The problem for the Marlins, both now and going forward, is that they have such a bad rotation that staying competitive could be difficult and they will have to spend efficiently in free agency on starting pitching to get better.  The Marlins seem like a team that going through a few seasons of tanking in order to get high draft picks would be smart, but their core of young hitters is too good to not take advantage of.  They will have to hope that they hit big on draft picks, that prospects develop well in a farm system that isn't ranked highly, and that they can find diamonds in the rough in free agency.

Predictions

• The Marlins should be a borderline Wild Card team but with the weaknesses in their pitching rotation, I think they will actually finish fourth in the division.  I doubt that they will stay in the playoff hunt for very long and any injury to their mediocre pitching rotation will do them in.  I'm predicting that they will win 76 games this season and finish under .500.

*All stats and information came from baseball-reference.com, mlb.com, espn.com, spotrac.com, fangraphs.com, baseballprospectus.com, baseballamerica.com, and rosterresource.com