NHL Preview - Toronto Maple Leafs

Toronto Maple Leafs

2015-16 season: 29-42-11, 69 points	Head Coach: Mike Babcock (2015)
8th Place Atlantic Division	General Manager: Lou Lamoriello (2015)
16th Place Eastern Conference	AHL Affiliate: Toronto Maple Leafs ECHL Affiliate: Orlando Solar Bears
Cap Space: -$694,084

News

• Traded D Scott Harrington to Columbus for LW Kerby Rychel
• Traded G Jonathan Bernier to Anaheim for a conditional pick in 2017
• Acquired G Frederick Andersen's rights from Anaheim for 1st and 2nd Round draft picks; signed Andersen to a 5 year, $25,000,000 extension

Players Lost in the Offseason

POS.	Player	New Team	Contract
RW	P.A. Parenteau	New York Islanders	1 year, $1,250,000
RW	Michael Grabner	New York Rangers	2 year, $3,300,000
RW	Brad Boyes	Free Agency
RW	Ben Smith	Colorado Avalanche	1 year, $675,000
LW	Sam Carrick	Chicago Blackhawks	1 year, $575,000
LW	Rafi Torres	Carolina Hurricanes	Professional Tryout
D	Jared Cowen	Free Agency
D	T.J. Brennan	Philadelphia Flyers	2 years, $1,250,000
G	Alex Stalock	Minnesota Wild	1 year, $650,000

Incoming Free Agents

POS.	Player	Old Team	Contract
LW	Matt Martin	New York Islanders	4 years, $10,000,000
D	Nikita Zaitsev	CSKA Moscow (KHL)	1 year, $925,000
D	Roman Polak	San Jose Sharks	1 year, $2,250,000
G	Jhonas Enroth	Los Angeles Kings	1 year, $750,000

2016 Draft Picks

RD	Pick No.	POS.	Name	Junior/College/Club Team
1	1	C	Auston Matthews	Zurich SC (Swiss-A)
2	31	RW	Yegor Korshkov	Yarslavl Lokomotiv (KHL)
2	57	RW	Carl Grundstrom	MODO Hockey Ornskoldsvik (SweHL)
3	62	G	Joseph Woll	U.S. National Development Team (USHL)
3	72	D	J.D. Greenway	U.S. National Development Team (USHL)
4	92	C	Adam Brooks	Regina Pats (WHL)
4	101	D	Keaton Middleton	Saginaw Spirit (OHL)
5	122	LW	Vladimir Bobylev	Victoria Royals (WHL)
6	152	D	Jack Walker	Victoria Royals (WHL)
6	179	D	Nicolas Mattinen	London Knights (OHL)
7	182	LW	Nikolai Chebykin	MVD Jrs (Russia)

Top Three Prospects

POS	Name	Draft Info	Current Team
C	Auston Matthews	2016 1st RD (1)	NHL
G	Antoine Bibeau	2013 6th RD (190)	AHL/ECHL
RW	Mitch Marner	2015 1st RD (15)	NHL

Project Lineup

Forwards

POS	Name	Age	Nationality	Free Agent Year
LW	James Van Riemsdyk	27	USA	2018
C	Tyler Bozak	30	Canada	2018
RW	(A) Joffrey Lupul	33	Canada	2018
LW	Leo Komarov	29	Finland	2018
C	Nazem Kadri	25	Canada	2022
RW	Mitch Marner	19	Canada	2019 (RFA)
LW	Milan Michalek	31	Czech Republic	2017
C	Auston Matthews	19	USA	2019 (RFA)
RW	William Nylander	20	Canada	2018 (RFA)
LW	Matt Martin	27	Canada	2020
C	Peter Holland	25	Canada	2017 (RFA)
RW	(A) Brooks Laich	33	Canada	2017

Defensemen

POS	Name	Age	Nationality	Free Agent Year
D	Morgan Rielly	22	Canada	2022
D	Jake Gardiner	26	USA	2019
D	Matt Hunwick	31	USA	2017
D	Nikita Zaitsev	24	Russia	2017 (RFA)
D	Martin Marincin	24	Slovakia	2018
D	Roman Polak	30	Czech Republic	2017

Goalies

POS	Name	Age	Nationality	Free Agent Year
G	Frederick Andersen	26	Denmark	2021
G	Jhonas Enroth	28	Sweden	2017

Extra Skaters

POS	Name	Age	Nationality	Free Agent Year
RW	Nikita Soshnikov	22	Russia	2018 (RFA)
LW	Colin Greening	30	Canada	2017
D	Connor Carrick	22	USA	2018 (RFA)

Inactive Players

POS	Name	Age	Nationality	Free Agent Year
D	(A) Stephane Robidas	39	Canada	2017
RW	Nate Horton	31	Canada	2020

Season Outlook

• Last year was Toronto's first season under Head Coach Mike Babcock's leadership.  It was also the second year of the directed rebuild that started when Brendan Shanahan was hired as president of hockey operations.  The Maple Leafs have done an excellent job of trading away players for draft picks, taking on bad contracts with picks attached, and using these picks to draft skilled players with lots of upside.  Last season, Mike Babcock proved his system is successful, even if it didn't show up in the standings.  Although Toronto ended up with the worst record in the league, they played a lot of close games with shoddy defense.  Babcock had the team in the upper half of the league in possession numbers and controlled the puck for a majority of games.

CAT.	Goals For	Goals Against	PP %	PK %	PDO	Corsi For	Corsi Against	Corsi For %	oZS%	dZS%
Stat	198	246	15.44	81.62	98.5	5023	4557	52.4	51.2	48.8
Maple Leafs’ Rank	29th	28th	30th	13th	30th	3rd	16th	3rd	14th	14th

PDO= Even Strength Shooting Percentage + Even Strength Save Percentage

Corsi For= Shots + Blocks + Misses while in possession of puck

Crosi Against= Shots + Blocks + Misses while not in possession of puck

Corsi For %= Corsi For/(Corsi For+Corsi Against) -> Above 50% means that team controls play

oZS% = Offensive Zone Start Percentage

dZS% = Defensive Zone Start Percentage

• This offseason, the front office (and Mike Babcock) made a lot of savvy moves by taking Auston Matthews with the 1st overall pick (an easy decision), trading for and then signing goalie Frederick Andersen to be their starter.  They were in the sweepstakes to sign hometown kid Steven Stamkos through free agency, but they were smart in not paying him the $14.5 million he wanted.  Doing so would've messed up their rebuilding plans (they wouldn't have the money to extend all of their young players in the future) and not have made them much better in the immediate.  They will continue to inject their NHL roster with their draft picks (Matthews, Willie Nylander, and Mitch Marner should all be with the Leafs this season) while their prospects continue getting closer to the NHL.  Toronto is in a great place currently as their core franchise players will all be used to playing in Babcock's system, both at the NHL and AHL levels.  That means that in a few years when players like Milan Michalek and possibly even Tyler Bozak and James Van Riemsdyk are gone, the young players will all be ready to step in and contribute right away.  This year, they won't be a playoff team, but be competitive and in two to three years they should be contending for a division title.

Breakout Candidates:

• Mitch Marner - Marner was the fourth overall draft pick in last year's entry level draft.  He spent all of last season with his OHL team, the London Knights, where he had an illustrious career, accumulating 116 points last year alone.  He is currently slotted in to skate on the second line with Nazem Kadri and Leo Komarov, which should give him plenty of opportunities to contribute.
• Auston Matthews - This one is the easy choice. Matthews was taken with the first overall pick in this year's draft and probably would've been taken second over Jack Eichel is last year's draft.  He is highly-skilled and has already played in a professional league, having opted to play in Switzerland instead of the minors or college.  If it weren't for Bozak and Kadri, Matthews would probably at least be centering the second line.  He should contribute immediately for the Leafs.
• Willie Nylander - The Leafs' first round draft pick from 2014, he played 22 game at the NHL level last season.  He netted 6 goals and 13 points and will probably be skating on a line with Auston Matthews. That line could be lethal.

Regression Candidate:

• Joffrey Lupul - Lupul was once a very productive player for the Leafs, and before that, the Anaheim Ducks and Philadelphia Flyers.  He is always hurt anymore though.  He hasn't played a full season since 2008-09 and only played in 46 games last season.  Luckily for the Leafs, he is only under contract through 2018.  I think that he will continue to regress due to injuries.

Bounceback Candidate:

• James Van Riemsdyk - JVR fractured his left foot last season in January and only appeared in 40 games.  He was productive, however, and is a very skilled winger when he is healthy.  As recently as 2013-14, he was a 30 goal scorer and I think he will bounce back and have another 25 goal season.

*All statistics and information come from: rosterresource.com, thehockeywriters.com, hockeydb.com, hockey-reference.com, and generalfanager.com