NHL Preview - Pittsburgh Penguins

Pittsburgh Penguins

2015-16 season: 48-26-8, 104 points Won Stanley Cup	Head Coach: Mike Sullivan (2015)
2nd Place Metro Division	General Manager: Jim Rutherford (2014)
3rd Place Eastern Conference	AHL Affiliate: Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins ECHL Affiliate: Wheeling Nailers
Cap Space: + $3,299,999

News

• Traded RW Beau Bennett's rights to New Jersey for a 2016 3rd Round draft pick

Players Lost in the Offseason

POS.	Player	New Team	Contract
D	Ben Lovejoy	New Jersey Devils	3 years, $7,980,000
D	Will O’Neill	Philadelphia Flyers	1 year, $575,000
G	Jeff Zatkoff	Los Angeles Kings	2 years, $1,800,000

Incoming Free Agents

POS.	Player	Old Team	Contract
D	David Warsofsky	New Jersey Devils	1 year, $575,000

2016 Draft Picks

RD	Pick No.	POS.	Name	Junior/College/Club Team
2	55	G	Filip Gustavsson	Lulea HF (SweHL)
2	61	RW	Kasper Bjorkqvist	Blues Jrs (Liiga)
3	77	D	Connor Hall	Kitchener Rangers (OHL)
4	121	D	Ryan Jones	Lincoln Stars (USHL)
5	151	D	Niclas Almari	Jokerit Jrs (Finland)
6	181	D	Joe Masonius	University of Connecticut (Hockey East)

Top Three Prospects

POS	Name	Draft Info	Current Team
G	Tristan Jarry	2013 2nd RD (44)	AHL
RW	Daniel Sprong	2015 2nd RD (46)	NHL
C	Blaine Byron	2013 6th RD (179)	University of Maine

Projected Lineups

Forwards

POS	Name	Age	Nationality	Free Agent Year
LW	(A) Chris Kunitz	37	Canada	2017
C	(C) Sidney Crosby	29	Canada	2025
RW	Patric Hornqvist	29	Sweden	2018
LW	Carl Hagelin	28	Sweden	2019
C	Nick Bonino	28	USA	2017
RW	Phil Kessel	29	USA	2022
LW	Conor Sheary	24	USA	2017 (RFA)
C	(A) Evgeni Malkin	30	Russia	2022
RW	Bryan Rust	24	USA	2018 (RFA)
LW	Tom Kuhnackl	24	Germany	2018 (RFA)
C	Matt Cullen	29	USA	2017
RW	Eric Fehr	31	Canada	2018

Defensemen

POS	Name	Age	Nationality	Free Agent Year
D	Brian Dumoulin	26	Canada	2017 (RFA)
D	Kris Letang	29	Canada	2022
D	Olli Maatta	22	Finland	2022
D	Trevor Daley	32	Canada	2017
D	Ian Cole	27	USA	2018
D	Justin Schultz	26	Canada	2017

Goalies

POS	Name	Age	Nationality	Free Agent Year
G	Matt Murray	22	Canada	2017 (RFA)
G	Marc-Andre Fleury	31	Canada	2019

Extra Skaters

POS	Name	Age	Nationality	Free Agent Year
LW	Kevin Porter	30	USA	2017
RW	Oskar Sundqvist	22	Sweden	2017 (RFA)
D	Derrick Pouliot	22	Canada	2017 (RFA)

Inactive Players

POS	Name	Age	Nationality	Free Agent Year
RW	Daniel Sprong	19	Netherlands	2018 (RFA)
LW	Pascal Dupuis	37	Canada	2017

Season Outlook

• I've been excited to write the Penguins' preview since I started this preview series.  Last season started horribly for the Penguins and led to the firing of head coach Mike Johnston, who suppressed the natural offensive tendencies of players like Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, and Phil Kessel.  They brought in Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins coach Mike Sullivan, who allowed the offense to open up, with more backchecking in the defensive zone.  His system requires more defensive responsibility from the forwards, while also allowing the defensemen to have more freedom to pinch more in the offensive zone, all creating a system that is up-tempo and allows for fast break-out passes. Sullivan turned the team around and the Penguins won their fourth Stanley Cup in franchise history and the second consecutive championship for the team following an in-season coaching change (in 2009, the Penguins won the Cup after Michel Terrien was fired and replaced with Dan Bylsma).  General Manager Jim Rutherford erased any doubts about his player personal abilities, and nearly every move he made during the season worked to perfection.  He kept Phil Kessel, despite voices calling for his trade out of Pittsburgh, he moved David Perron to Anaheim in exchange for Carl Hagelin, a move that worked out greatly for both teams, and he moved the corpse of Rob Scuderi to Chicago for Trevor Daley.  Had these trades been failures, Rutherford would have been criticized heavily, but since they were successful, he looked like a genius, and won the GM of the Year award.

CAT.	Goals For	Goals Against	PP %	PK %	PDO	Corsi For	Corsi Against	Corsi For %	oZS%	dZS%
Stat	245	203	18.39	84.44	100.7	4812	4384	52.3	52.3	47.7
Penguins’ Rank	3rd	7th	18th	5th	9th	5th	9th	4th	5th	5th

PDO= Even Strength Shooting Percentage + Even Strength Save Percentage

Corsi For= Shots + Blocks + Misses while in possession of puck

Crosi Against= Shots + Blocks + Misses while not in possession of puck

Corsi For %= Corsi For/(Corsi For+Corsi Against) -> Above 50% means that team controls play

oZS% = Offensive Zone Start Percentage

dZS% = Defensive Zone Start Percentage

• During the offseason, the Penguins did very little on the roster front.  They had to let defenseman Ben Lovejoy go for salary cap reasons, and were able to salvage some value out of Beau Bennett by trading his rights for a 3rd RD pick.  Rutherford was able to re-sign veteran center Matt Cullen, who was pivotal for the Penguins last season, to a one-year deal and re-signed defenseman Justin Schultz to a one-year deal, which will help lessen the blow of losing Lovejoy and will help give the team depth.  Schultz was good in a limited, and even protected, role last year and is a good fit for Pittsburgh.  Currently, they are over the salary cap but will get some relief by putting Pascal Dupuis on Long-Term Injured Reserve.  At some point this season, I expect the Penguins to move goalie Marc-Andre Fleury out of Pittsburgh rather than lose him in the expansion draft next summer.  With his salary off the books, plus Chris Kunitz' contract expiring after this season, the Penguins will have the cap flexibility to extend goalie Matt Murray, winger Conor Sheary, and defenseman Brian Dumoulin.  At one point, their future looked weak from a cap perspective, but it may be brighter now, with the ability to clear some current contracts and the opportunity to lock up some young players at cost-controlled contracts.  The Penguins' success this season will most likely be based on whether Matt Murray's playoff run last year was for real, and his play in the World Cup of Hockey thus far, indicates that it was.  However, he will miss the start of the season with a broken hand that he suffered in the World Cup.  I think a full season under head coach Mike Sullivan's system, which allows offensive juggernauts like Crosby, Malkin, and Kessel to play to their strengths, will be great for the team and they will be a strong competitor for another Stanley Cup.  Plus, having the Hagelin, Bonino, and Kessel line certainly helps, given their strong chemistry.

Breakout Candidate:

• G Matt Murray - I put Matt Murray down for this because of his limited playing experience in the regular season last year, and that's what I mostly base these off of.  He only appeared in 13 games during the regular season, winning nine of them, and 15 games during the playoffs en route to a Stanley Cup victory. He will split time with Marc-Andre Fleury during the season and Murray not having an excessive workload in his first full NHL season will probably help him greatly and I think that he will have a great rookie season.

Regression Candidate:

• C Matt Cullen - Cullen was 39 years old for most of last season and still managed to play in 81 games, which just seems crazy.  He contributed 16 goals and 32 points, which is great production from a fourth line center.  He also provided veteran leadership during the regular season and especially during the playoffs.  A lot of people thought he may retire following last season, but the Penguins were able to re-sign him at a great price.  I don't know if his abilities will necessarily regress, but it seems unlikely for him to appear in basically every game again considering he turns 40 in November.

Bounceback Candidate:

• RW Phil Kessel - Kessel's tenure with the Penguins has been criticized over the majority of it. Under former head coach Mike Johnston's system, Kessel only scored 25 goals in his first year and 26 last season during the regular season, in which part of it was played under Johnston. This is a big regression for someone who has been a perennial 30 goal scorer in the NHL.  Now that he is in a system that works with his skill and he knows what line he will be on (HBK line), Kessel can just play his game.  He showed this during the playoffs when he scored 22 points in 24 games and should have won the Conn Smythe Trophy.  I think he may finally eclipse the 40 goal mark this season, and help guide the Penguins back to the playoffs.
• D Olli Maatta - Maatta broke out in 2013-14, his rookie season, and looked to be the future of the Penguins' defense.  Then, in 2014-15, he had a serious health scare that limited him to just 20 games.  Last season, he played well again before a lingering shoulder injury limited him in the regular season and he didn't play well during the playoffs.  The Penguins still believe in his talent, extending him to a six-year deal that goes into effect this season.  He has looked good so far at the World Cup of Hockey, playing for Team Finland, and if he plays that well for the Penguins, he will have another good season.

*All statistics and information come from: rosterresource.com, thehockeywriters.com, hockeydb.com, hockey-reference.com, and generalfanager.com