NHL Preview - New York Rangers

New York Rangers

2015-16 season: 46-47-9, 101 points Lost in 1st RD of Eastern Conference Playoffs	Head Coach: Alain Vigneault (2013)
3rd Place Metro Division	General Manager: Jeff Gorton (2015)
3rd Place Eastern Conference	AHL Affiliate: Hartford Wolfpack ECHL Affiliate: Greenville Swamp Rabbits
Cap Space: $1,400,000

News

• Traded a 2017 4th RD pick to Colorado for defenseman Nick Holden
• Traded C Derick Brassard and a 2018 7th RD pick to Ottawa for C Mika Zibanejad and a 2018 2nd RD pick

Players Lost in the Offseason

POS.	Player	New Team	Contract
C	Eric Staal	Minnesota Wild	3 years, $10,500,000
RW	Viktor Stalberg	Carolina Hurricanes	1 year, $1,500,000
C	Dominic Moore	Boston Bruins	1 year, $900,000
RW	Jayson Megna	Vancouver Canucks	1 year, $600,000
RW	Brian Gibbons	New Jersey Devils	PTO
D	Keith Yandle	Florida Panthers	7 years, $44,500,000
D	Dan Boyle	Retired

Incoming Free Agents

POS.	Player	Old Team	Contract
RW	Michael Grabner	Toronto Maple Leafs	2 years, $3,300,000
LW	Jimmy Vesey	NCAA	2 years, $1,850,000
C	Brandon Pirri	Anaheim Ducks	1 year, $1,100,000
RW	Josh Jooris	Calgary Flames	1 year, $600,000
LW	Nathan Gerbe	Carolina Hurricanes	1 year, $600,000
D	Adam Clendening	Edmonton Oilers	1 year, $600,000

2016 Draft Picks

RD	Pick No.	POS.	Name	Junior/College/Club Team
3	81	D	Sean Day	Mississauga Steelheads (OHL)
4	98	D	Tarmo Reunanen	TPS Jrs (Finland)
5	141	LW	Tim Gettinger	Saulte Ste. Marie Greyhounds (OHL)
6	171	C	Gabriel Fontaine	Rouyn-Noranda Huskies (QMJHL)
6	174	G	Tyler Wall	Leamington Flyers (GOJHL)
7	201	RW	Ty Ronning	Vancouver Giants (WHL)

Top Three Prospects

POS	Name	Draft Info	Current Team
G	Igor Shestyorkin	2014 4th RD (118)	SKA St. Petersburg (KHL)
G	Brandon Halverson	2014 2nd RD (59)	Sault St. Marie Greyhounds (QMJHL)
RW	Nicklas Jensen	2011 1st RD (29)	AHL/ECHL

Projected Lineup

Forwards

POS	Name	Age	Nationality	Free Agent Year
LW	Rick Nash	32	Canada	2018
C	(A) Derek Stepan	26	USA	2021
RW	Mats Zuccarello	29	Norway	2019
LW	Chris Kreider	25	USA	2020
C	Mika Zibanejad	23	Sweden	2017 (RFA)
RW	Jesper Fast	24	Sweden	2017 (RFA)
LW	J.T. Miller	23	USA	2018 (RFA)
C	Kevin Hayes	24	USA	2018 (RFA)
RW	Michael Grabner	29	Austria	2018
LW	Jimmy Vesey	23	USA	2018 (RFA)
C	Brandon Pirri	25	Canada	2017
RW	Josh Jooris	26	Canada	2017

Defensemen

POS	Name	Age	Nationality	Free Agent Year
D	(C) Ryan McDonagh	27	USA	2019
D	(A) Dan Girardi	32	Canada	2020
D	Marc Staal	29	Canada	2021
D	Kevin Klein	31	Canada	2018
D	Nick Holden	29	Canada	2018
D	Dylan McIlrath	24	Canada	2017 (RFA)

Goalies

POS	Name	Age	Nationality	Free Agent Year
G	Henrik Lundqvist	34	Sweden	2021
G	Antti Raanta	27	Finland	2018

Extra Skaters

POS	Name	Age	Nationality	Free Agent Year
LW	Nathan Gerbe	29	USA	2017
LW	Tanner Glass	32	Canada	2017
D	Adam Clendening	23	USA	2017

Season Outlook

• The 2015-16 New York Rangers were a great case study for an analytics vs. regular statistics debate.  Their on-the-surface statistics (Goals Forced, Goals Against, Powerplay Percentage, and PDO) all had the Rangers as being in the upper-half of the league and warranting of finishing 3rd in the division last year.  However, the Rangers' possession stats, primarily Corsi For, Corsi Against, and Corsi For Percentage, were really bad.  This shows that they were not good at putting shots on net and relied far too much on their goalies by letting a lot more attempted shots than they themselves attempted.  With the way that King Hank started struggling late in the season and was even pulled in games four and five in the Eastern Conference Quarterfinals against the Penguins, this stat proves itself.  Looking at the Rangers roster from last season shows the reason why they struggled with puck possession.  They only had two regular players (Keith Yandle and Dan Boyle, both defensemen) who had a Corsi For Percentage above 50% and neither will be on the team this season.  Their top two defensemen, Ryan McDonagh and Dan Girardi were quite a bit below this 50% threshold, at 47.7% and 41.3%, respectively.  This is especially bad as a team relies heavily on the heavy ice time skated by a defense's top pairing.  When a player has a Corsi For Percentage under 50% it means that when that player was on the ice, the other team had control of the puck a majority of the time. This is not a successful way of going about winning games.

CAT.	Goals For	Goals Against	PP %	PK %	PDO	Corsi For	Corsi Against	Corsi For %	oZS%	dZS%
Stat	236	217	18.58	78.19	101.3	4360	4817	47.5	50.0	50.0
Rangers’ Rank	7th	14th	16th	27th	3rd	22nd	28th	25th	20th	20th

PDO= Even Strength Shooting Percentage + Even Strength Save Percentage

Corsi For= Shots + Blocks + Misses while in possession of puck

Crosi Against= Shots + Blocks + Misses while not in possession of puck

Corsi For %= Corsi For/(Corsi For+Corsi Against) -> Above 50% means that team controls play

oZS% = Offensive Zone Start Percentage

dZS% = Defensive Zone Start Percentage

• This season, the Rangers don't have Yandle or Boyle and their defensive unit will suffer a significant hit because of it.  They acquired Nick Holden from Colorado to fill out their unit, but will have to rely on large minutes from Ryan McDonagh, Dan Girardi, and Marc Staal, the two latter who haven't been quality NHL defensemen in a few seasons now and have progressively gotten worse.  They are also spending a lot of money on their defensemen, actually spending more on Girardi and Staal than McDonagh.  They made a trade to acquire center Mika Zibanejad and gave up center Derick Brassard in exchange, receiving the more talented player but only having him under contract for this season.  They also eventually won the Jimmy Vesey sweepstakes, which is surprising because he likely won't be a top-six forward for the Rangers, something he desired out of his landing spot.  Had he signed with a team like Buffalo, Boston, or even returned to Nashville, he would have been given this opportunity.  It will be interesting to see how the Rangers come out at the beginning of the season.  They were embarrassed by the Penguins in the playoffs last season so I will be watching to see if the Rangers come out flat or if Lundqvist struggles at the beginning of the season.  I think that the age of the roster and how they have spent their money is going to cause the Rangers to go into a rebuild soon.  They could very easily miss the playoffs this year, which would be horrible for that team.  There have been rumors surrounding a potential trade of Lundqvist for picks and prospects and I think that the Rangers should consider doing so.

Breakout Candidate:

• LW J.T. Miller - Miller was taken by the Rangers with the 15th overall pick in 2011 and it took until the 2014-15 season for him to have a regular role on the team.  Last season he put up 43 points in his first full season and netted 22 goals, the second highest mark of his career, going all the way back to when he was in the minors.  I think Miller has a great deal of talent and potential and will surpass the 25 goal plateau this season.

Regression Candidate:

• D Dan Girardi - Girardi is 32 and, although he is penciled in on the first defensive pairing, he is not good enough to actually skate there.  Since 2012-13 his possession numbers have gone down each year and were never real high to begin with.  I think he will continue to struggle this season, and be unable to keep up with the speed that is present in the Metro Division.

Bounceback Candidate:

• LW Rick Nash - Nash was, at one time, one of the best goalscorers in the league.  Last year, however, he regressed and only had 15 goals, just one season after scoring 42.  Nash may not be a 40-goal scorer anymore but he is certainly better than one who scores in the teens.  Look for Nash to find his scoring touch and get back into at least the 20's.

*All statistics and information come from: rosterresource.com, thehockeywriters.com, hockeydb.com, hockey-reference.com, and generalfanager.com