NHL Preview - Dallas Stars

Dallas Stars

2015-16 season: 50-23-9, 109 points Lost in Western Conference semifinals	Head Coach: Lindy Ruff (2013)
1st Place Central Division	General Manager: Jim Nill (2013)
1st  Place Western Conference	AHL Affiliate: Texas Stars ECHL Affiliate: Idaho Steelheads
Cap Space: $4,584,167

News

• Traded D Alex Goligoski's rights to Arizona for a 2016 5th Round draft pick
• Traded G Jack Campbell to Los Angeles for D Nick Ebert

Players Lost in the Offseason

POS.	Player	New Team	Contract
LW	Travis Moen	Free Agent
RW	Valeri Nichushkin	CSKA Moscow (KHL)
RW	Colton Sceviour	Florida Panthers	2 years, $1,900,000
C	Vernon Fiddler	New Jersey Devils	1 year $1,250,000
D	Kris Russell	Free Agent
D	Jason Demers	Florida Panthers	5 years, $22,500,000

Incoming Free Agents

POS.	Player	Old Team	Contract
LW	Jiri Hudler	Florida Panthers	1 year, $2,000,000
LW	Adam Cracknell	Edmonton Oilers	1 year, $600,000
D	Dan Humhuis	Vancouver Canucks	2 years, $7,500,000

2016 Draft Picks

RD	Pick No.	POS.	Name	Junior/College/Club Team
1	25	LW	Riley Tufte	Fargo Force (USHL)
3	90	C	Fredrik Karlstrom	AIK (SWE-Jr)
4	116	C	Rhett Garner	North Dakota Fighting Hawks (NCHC)
5	128	G	Colton Point	Carleton Place Canadians (CCHL)
5	146	RW	Nicholas Caamano	Flint Firebirds (OHL)
6	176	D	Jakob Stenqvist	MODO-Jr (SWE-Jr)

Top Three Prospects

POS	Name	Draft Info	Current Team
G	Philipe Desrosiers	2014 2nd RD (54)	AHL/ECHL
C	Devin Shore	2012 2nd RD (61)	AHL/ECHL
RW	Brett Ritchie	2011 2nd RD (44)	NHL

Projected Lineup

Forwards

POS	Name	Age	Nationality	Free Agent Year
LW	(C) Jamie Benn	27	Canada	2025
C	Tyler Seguin	24	Canada	2019
RW	Patrick Sharp	32	Canada	2017
LW	Jiri Hudler	32	Czech Republic	2017
C	Jason Spezza	33	Canada	2019
RW	Ales Hemsky	33	Czech Republic	2017
LW	Antoine Roussel	26	France	2017
C	Mattias Janmark	23	Sweden	2017 (RFA)
RW	Patrick Eaves	32	Canada	2017
LW	Curtis McKenzie	25	Canada	2017 (RFA)
C	Radek Faksa	22	Czech Republic	2017 (RFA)
RW	Brett Ritchie	23	Canada	2017 (RFA)

Defensemen

POS	Name	Age	Nationality	Free Agent Year
D	Dan Hamhuis	33	Canada	2018
D	John Klingberg	24	Sweden	2022
D	Johnny Oduya	35	Sweden	2017
D	Stephen Johns	24	USA	2018 (RFA)
D	Esa Lindell	22	Finland	2017 (RFA)
D	Jordie Benn	29	Canada	2019

Goalies

POS	Name	Age	Nationality	Free Agent Year
G	Kari Lehtenonen	32	Finland	2018
G	Antti Niemi	33	Finland	2018

Extra Skaters

POS	Name	Age	Nationality	Free Agent Year
LW	Adam Cracknell	31	Canada	2017
D	Jamie Oleksiak	23	Canada	2017 (RFA)
D	Patrik Nemeth	24	Sweden	2017 (RFA)

Inactive Players

POS	Name	Age	Nationality	Free Agent Year
C	Cody Eakin	25	Canada	2020
LW	Jason Dickinson	21	Canada	2018 (RFA)

Season Outlook

• The Dallas Stars were, and probably are, the most fun team in the league to watch, in my opinion.  It is like the 1990's NHL has been re-created in Dallas.  They are an up-tempo, offense-first team that certainly won't get drawn into a trap game.  They won the Central Division last year on their way to also finishing first in the conference.  They are an extremely top-heavy offensive team that is led by Jamie Benn, Tyler Seguin, Patrick Sharp, and Jason Spezza. There is definitely a drop-off on the third and fourth lines, though, and the Stars rely a great deal on the first two lines for their offense.  Their defense is probably average for the league and is good enough to make the playoffs and win once they are in.  Defenseman John Klingberg proved to be a solid NHLer once again in his second season in the league, leading their defensive unit and playing point on their powerplay.  This powerplay was lethal, succeeding at over a 22% clip, ranking fourth in the league last season.  They still were above average at killing penalties as well, ranking tenth in that category.  For the Stars' advanced metrics, as one might presume, they ranked high in the offensive categories, including second in Corsi For, meaning they attempted more shots than all but one other team in the league.  In Corsi Against, however, they were 19th, which is bad, but not as bad as I thought they would have been based on the emphasis they place on offense.  Overall, they ranked fifth in Corsi For Percentage at 52.2 %, so they controlled play over half of the time.  To me, this means that the Stars' issues were mostly in net.  Goaltenders Kari Lehtonen and Antti Niemi were not good; Lehtonen had a 2.76 Goals Against Average (GAA) with a .906 save percentage, and Niemi had a 2.67 GAA with a .905 save percentage.  Last year, the league averages in these categories were 2.51 and .915, respectively.  In the playoffs, Lehtonen and Niemi were even worse, both posting sub-.900 save percentages and and Niemi had a GAA above 3.00.  This is truly bad for a team with playoff aspirations each year, as there were numerous goaltenders on non-playoff teams that posted better numbers than Lehtonen and Niemi.  Unless either one of Dallas' two goaltenders steps up an truly becomes a number one goalie like they've been in the past, or the Stars go out and acquire a number one, it's hard to see Dallas getting to the Stanley Cup finals, which is their goal.

CAT.	Goals For	Goals Against	PP %	PK %	PDO	Corsi For	Corsi Against	Corsi For %	oZS%	dZS%
Stat	267	230	22.14	82.26	100.5	5082	4659	52.2	52.3	47.7
Stars’ Rank	1st	21st	4th	10th	10th	2nd	19th	5th	6th	6th

PDO= Even Strength Shooting Percentage + Even Strength Save Percentage

Corsi For= Shots + Blocks + Misses while in possession of puck

Crosi Against= Shots + Blocks + Misses while not in possession of puck

Corsi For %= Corsi For/(Corsi For+Corsi Against) -> Above 50% means that team controls play

oZS% = Offensive Zone Start Percentage

dZS% = Defensive Zone Start Percentage

• During the offseason, the Stars lost Kris Russel, Jason Demers, and Alex Goligoski, all defensemen.  They brought in Dan Hamuis from Vancouver, which should help alleviate the loss of at least one of the defensemen that signed elsewhere.  Their offense will be back almost entirely, except for Valeri Nichushkin, who left for the KHL, and will be a big loss.  They brought in Jiri Huddler to replace Nichushkin and Huddler has big goal-scoring abilities.  Their issue will continue to be in net with Kari Lehtonen and Antti Niemi splitting time and neither being very good.  I have heard that Dallas could be a possible match for Henrik Lundqvist if the Rangers were to move him, and I think that if the Stars have the opportunity to make this happen, they should go all in on it.  Their current roster construction is temporary, as Patrick Sharp, Jiri Huddler, and Ales Hemsky all have contracts that expire after this season, and Dallas' roster could look very different a year from now.  They need to get everything they can out of the talent on this roster and extend their window for winning a championship as long as possible. For this season, I think they will make the playoffs again and be a threat to represent the Western Conference in the Stanley Cup Finals.

Breakout Candidate:

• D Esa Lindell - I went back-and-forth between Lindell and Brett Ritchie for this, but went with Lindell because I like that this is his first real opportunity to play in the NHL.  In the AHL last season, he scored 42 points in 73 games, which is quite a lot for a defenseman.  He also added 4 points in 4 games during the playoffs.  I also like the fact that he is a Finnish defenseman and I've always felt that Finnish players play a polished and disciplined type of game, which plays well in the NHL.  I think he will be successful this season and help Dallas a great deal.

Regression Candidate:

• G Antti Niemi - Niemi's numbers have continued to get worse each year since the 2012-13 season, the last year he put up really good statistics.  I think this trend will continue this year and that Dallas will be excitedly waiting for his contract to expire after the 2017-18 season.

Bounceback Candidate:

• F Patrick Sharp - Sharp managed to still score 20 goals in a season that I am considering a letdown year for the talented winger.  Sharp has scored over 30 goals on four occasions and still has the talent to do so again, especially when skating on a line with Jamie Benn and Tyler Seguin.  I think that Sharp will get back to between 25-30 goals this season.

*All statistics and information come from: rosterresource.com, thehockeywriters.com, hockeydb.com, hockey-reference.com, and generalfanager.com