NHL Preview - Colorado Avalanche

Colorado Avalanche

2015-16 season: 39-39-4, 82 points	Head Coach: Jared Bednar (2016)
7th Place Central Division	General Manager: Joe Sakic (2014)
9th  Place Western Conference	AHL Affiliate: San Antonio Rampage ECHL Affiliate: Colorado Eagles
Cap Space: $959,407

News

• Traded G Reto Berra to Florida for C Rocco Grimaldi
• Traded D Nate Holden to the Rangers for a 2017 4th RD draft pick

Players Lost in the Offseason

POS.	Player	New Team	Contract
LW	Mikkel Boedker	San Jose Sharks	4 years, $16,000,000
LW	Shawn Matthias	Winnipeg Jets	2 years, $4,250,000
LW	Taylor Beck	Edmonton Oilers	1 year, $650,000
RW	Jack Skille	Vancouver Canucks	PTO
RW	Borna Rendulic	Vancouver Canucks	1 year, $575,000
C	Andrew Agozzino	St. Louis Blues	1 year, $600,000
C	Ben Street	Detroit Red Wings	1 year, $600,000
D	Zach Redmond	Montreal Canadiens	2 years, $1,225,000
D	Nate Guenin	Anaheim Ducks	1 year, $600,000
D	Andrew Bodnarchuk	Dallas Stars	1 year, $625,000
D	Brandon Gormley	New Jersey Devils	1 year, $650,000
D	Brad Stuart	Free Agent

Incoming Free Agents

POS.	Player	Old Team	Contract
RW	Joe Colborne	Calgary Flames	2 years, $5,000,000
RW	Ben Smith	Toronto Maple Leafs	1 year, $675,000
D	Fedor Tyutin	Columbus Blue Jackets	1 year, $2,000,000
D	Patrick Wiercioch	Ottawa Senators	1 year, $800,000

2016 Draft Picks

RD	Pick No.	POS.	Name	Junior/College/Club Team
1	10	C	Tyson Jost	Penticton Vees (BCHL)
2	40	LW	Cameron Morrison	Youngstown Phantoms (USHL)
3	71	D	Josh Anderson	Prince George Cougars (WHL)
5	131	G	Adam Werner	Farjestad BK (SHL)
6	161	D	Nathan Clurman	Culver Academies (H.S.)
7	191	LW	Travis Barron	Ottawa 67’s (OHL)

Top Three Prospects

POS	Name	Draft Info	Current Team
C	Tyson Jost	2016 1st RD (10)	Penticton Vees (BCHL)
LW	Mikko Rantanen	2015 1st RD (10)	NHL
LW	A.J. Greer	2015 2nd RD (39)	Rouyn-Noranda (QMJHL)

Projected Lineup

Forwards

POS	Name	Age	Nationality	Free Agent Year
LW	Blake Comeau	30	Canada	2018
C	Matt Duchene	25	Canada	2019
RW	(A) Jarome Iginla	39	Canada	2017
LW	Mikail Grigorenko	22	Russia	2017 (RFA)
C	Nathan MacKinnon	21	Canada	2023
RW	(C) Gabriel Landeskog	23	Sweden	2021
LW	Mikko Rantanen	19	Finland	2019(RFA)
C	Carl Soderberg	30	Sweden	2020
RW	Joe Colborne	26	Canada	2018
LW	(A) Cody McLeod	32	Canada	2017
C	John Mitchell	31	Canada	2017
RW	Andrea Martinsen	26	Norway	2017 (RFA)

Defensemen

POS	Name	Age	Nationality	Free Agent Year
D	Francois Beachemin	36	Canada	2018
D	Erik Johnson	28	USA	2023
D	Fedor Tyutin	33	Russia	2017
D	Tyson Barrie	25	Canada	2020
D	Chris Bigras	21	Canada	2018 (RFA)
D	Eric Gelinas	25	Canada	2017 (RFA)

Goalies

POS	Name	Age	Nationality	Free Agent Year
G	Semyon Varlamov	28	Russia	2019
G	Calvin Pickard	24	Canada	2017 (RFA)

Extra Skaters

POS	Name	Age	Nationality	Free Agent Year
C	Rocco Grimaldi	23	USA	2017 (RFA)
D	Peter Wiercioch	26	Canada	2017
D	Nikita Zadorov	21	Russia	2017

Season Outlook

• Last year, the Colorado Avalanche had a season similar to that of the New York Rangers, but with very different results.  The Avalanche weren't horrible in the regular stats, but weren't really good either.  Their advanced stats, however, were horrible and it's understandable why they finished next-to-last in the division.  They were last in both Corsi Against and Corsi For Percentage and gave up nearly a thousand more shots than they attempted and relied far too much on their goaltenders to bail out their defensemen and forwards.  When you look at their individual player possession numbers, they didn't have anyone over 50.0% which is shocking. That means there was a systematic problem with the organization, not necessarily a talent problem.  Former head coach Patrick Roy was notorious for putting down analytics and it finally blew up in his face.  In the 2013-14 season, when Colorado miraculously made the playoffs, it sort of skewed the argument in Roy's favor, but it's regressed to the norm.  This is probably for the best though because they shouldn't have made the playoffs two years ago, yet still did.  By missing the playoffs each of the last two seasons, it proves that Colorado hasn't been as good as they were that one season, and that they can work on what they need to.

CAT.	Goals For	Goals Against	PP %	PK %	PDO	Corsi For	Corsi Against	Corsi For %	oZS%	dZS%
Stat	216	240	18.05	80.23	100.1	4187	5105	45.1	49.1	50.9
Avalanche Rank	21st	24th	20th	24th	16th	28th	30th	30th	26th	26th

PDO= Even Strength Shooting Percentage + Even Strength Save Percentage

Corsi For= Shots + Blocks + Misses while in possession of puck

Crosi Against= Shots + Blocks + Misses while not in possession of puck

Corsi For %= Corsi For/(Corsi For+Corsi Against) -> Above 50% means that team controls play

oZS% = Offensive Zone Start Percentage

dZS% = Defensive Zone Start Percentage

• During the offseason, the Avalanche were forced to find a new head coach after Patrick Roy so conveniently decided on August 11th that he was resigning from his position.  Although this is definitely the best-case scenario for the Avalanche, he should have decided this in May or June, not August, after all of the big name coaches have been signed.  At this point, it seems unlikely that Roy will find himself in the NHL again anytime soon, considering how bad of a coach he was and his poor decision-making.  In Roy's place, they brought in Jared Bednar, who led Columbus' AHL affiliate, the Cleveland Monsters, to the Calder Cup last season.  I personally don't know anything about him, but from what I've read and heard, it sounds like a good hire, and I'm glad that teams aren't just re-treading through the same old names.  No matter what Bednar does, he has to be better than Roy was during his time in Colorado and Avs' fans should be encouraged.  This year's Avalanche team is fairly talented, especially in their forwards group, with Matt Duchene, Nathan MacKinnon, and Gabriel Landeskog.  Defense is going to be their struggle and is a unit that is boring and not the most talented group in the league.  Tyson Barrie is their best defenseman and they almost let him go instead of extending him, which was a good move.  I think that the Avs will be better this year than last, even if it doesn't show up in their record, and they'll be on the right track once again.

Breakout Candidates:

• Forwards Matt Duchene, Nathan MacKinnon, and Gabriel Landeskog - I am including all three in this category, simply because I think that the expectations for them are much higher than what they've accomplished thus far in their short careers.  Duchene's best season was in 2013-14 (when the Avs made the playoffs) when he had 70 points in 71 games.  That was also the best seasons for MacKinnon, who had 63 points, and Landeskog, who had 65 points.  These are all fine seasons, but Duchene and MacKinnon should be perennial MVP candidates and Landeskog has the potential to score 30 goals in the NHL, they just need to be given the opportunity to open up their games a bit.  I believe that Jared Bednar's system will do something to help with puck possession and that will help to further spark this trio's careers.

Regression Candidate:

• RW Jarome Iginla - Iginla has had an excellent career and is a surefire Hall-of-Famer when he decides to hang up his skates.  He was still a productive player last season for the Avalanche, scoring 22 goals and 47 points.  He has slowly started to decline, however, in his offensive output, despite remaining healthy during the last few seasons.  I think that with Iginla being 39, his footspeed is going to start slowing down and that he may struggle to reach 20 goals again this season.

Bounceback Candidate:

• C/LW Mikail Grigorenko - Last season, Grigorenko only had 27 points, which is low for Grigorenko who had a 42 point season the year before.  He is a former 12th overall draft pick and I think that he will bounce back to at least the 40 point plateau and come close to reaching 50.

*All statistics and information come from: rosterresource.com, thehockeywriters.com, hockeydb.com, hockey-reference.com, and generalfanager.com