NHL Preview - Ottawa Sentators

Ottawa Senators

2015-16 season: 38-35-9, 85 points	Head Coach: Guy Boucher (2016)
5th Place Atlantic Division	General Manager: Pierre Dorian (2016)
11th Place Eastern Conference	AHL Affiliate: Binghampton Senators ECHL Affiliate: Wichita Thunder
Cap Space: $6,060,834

Team News

• GM Bryan Murray resigned after the regular season; Assistant GM Pierre Dorian was promoted to GM.  The front office fired head coach Dave Cameron and replaced him with Guy Boucher.
• Traded RW Alex Chiasson to Calgary for D Patrick Sieloff
• Traded C Mika Zibanejad and a 2nd RD pick to the Rangers for C Derick Brassard and a 7th RD pick

Players Lost in the Offseason

POS.	Player	New Team	Contract
C	Scott Gomez – Retired
D	Patrick Wiercioch	Colorado Avalanche	1 year, $800,000
D	Chris Philips – Retired
D	Matt Fraser	Edmonton Oilers	1 year, $575,000

Incoming Free Agents

POS.	Player	Old Team	Contract
C	Chris Kelly	Boston Bruins	1 year, $900,000
RW	Mike Blunden	Tampa Bay Lightning	2 years, $1,475,000

2016 Draft Picks

RD	Pick No.	POS.	Name	Junior/College/Club Team
1	11	C	Logan Brown	Windsor Spitfires (OHL)
2	42	C	Jonathan Dahlen	Timsa IK (SWE-1)
4	103	RW	Todd Burgess	Fairbanks Ice Dogs (NAHL)
5	133	D	Max Lajoie	Swift Current Broncos (WHL)
6	163	RW	Markus Nurmi	TPS Jrs (Finland)

Top Three Prospects

POS	Name	Draft Info	Current Team
G	Matt O’Connor	Signed NCAA 2015	AHL/ECHL
LW	Francis Perron	2014 7th RD (190)	AHL/ECHL
C	Logan Browns	2016 1st RD (11)	Windsor Spitfires (OHL)

Projected Lineup

Forwards

POS	Name	Age	Nationality	Free Agent Year
LW	Mike Hoffman	26	Canada	2020
C	Kyle Turris	27	Canada	2018
RW	Bobby Ryan	29	USA	2022
LW	Clarke MacArthur	31	Canada	2020
C	Derick Brassard	29	Canada	2019
RW	Mark Stone	24	Canada	2018 (RFA)
LW	Zack Smith	28	Canada	2017
C	Jean-Gabriel Pageau	23	Canada	2017 (RFA)
RW	(A) Chris Neil	37	Canada	2017
LW	Nick Paul	21	Canada	2018 (RFA)
C	Chris Kelly	35	Canada	2017
RW	Cody Lazar	21	Canada	2017 (RFA)

Defensemen

POS	Name	Age	Nationality	Free Agent Year
D	Marc Methot	31	Canada	2019
D	(C) Erick Karlsson	26	Sweden	2019
D	Dion Phaneuf	31	Canada	2021
D	Cody Ceci	22	Canada	2018 (RFA)
D	Mark Borowiecki	27	Canada	2018
D	Chris Wideman	26	USA	2018

Goalies

POS	Name	Age	Nationality	Free Agent Year
G	Craig Anderson	35	USA	2018
G	Andrew Hammond	28	Canada	2018

Extra Skaters

POS	Name	Age	Nationality	Free Agent Year
RW	Mike Blundin	29	Canada	2018
LW	Matt Puempel	23	Canada	2017 (RFA)
D	Michael Kostka	30	Canada	2017

Season Outlook

• The Ottawa Senators seem to either be really good or really bad each year.  They don't often just barely miss the playoffs and when they do make it, they usually win a round or two.  They have been relatively successful since coming back into the league in 1992, and have made the playoffs in 15 of the past 19 seasons.  Recently, however, Ottawa has had a difficult time finding consistent success.  Leadership has changed hands: gone are Daniel Alfredsson and Jason Spezza and in their places are Erik Karlsson and Kyle Turris.  Ottawa has the makings of a solid core, but really needs help on defense and consistency in net.  Last season, Ottawa was outscored by a good margin, a recipe that very rarely equals success.  Their special teams also struggled, which is crazy considering they have perennial Norris Trophy favorite Erik Karlsson leading their defensive unit.

CAT.	Goals For	Goals Against	PP %	PK %	PDO	Corsi For	Corsi Against	Corsi For %	oZS%	dZS%
Stat	236	247	15.90	75.89	100.8	4387	4867	47.4	50.2	49.8
Senators’ Rank	8th	29th	27th	30th	7th	21st	29th	27th	19th	19th

PDO= Even Strength Shooting Percentage + Even Strength Save Percentage

Corsi For= Shots + Blocks + Misses while in possession of puck

Crosi Against= Shots + Blocks + Misses while not in possession of puck

Corsi For %= Corsi For/(Corsi For+Corsi Against) -> Above 50% means that team controls play

oZS% = Offensive Zone Start Percentage

dZS% = Defensive Zone Start Percentage

• During the offseason, the Senators replaced their GM Bryan Murray, who resigned, with Pierre Dorian.  They also fired their head coach and replaced him with Guy Boucher, who had spent several years coaching in Switzerland since last coaching in the NHL in 2012-13.  Their only real player move was trading Mika Zibanejad to the Rangers for Derick Brassard, a trade that was pretty bizarre for both teams.  All of their free agency moves were low-level signings that probably won't make much of a difference for this season.  They are going to rely on young players developing more, players having rebounds to their careers (here's looking at you Bobby Ryan), and Boucher's system being more successful than what they have been implementing in recent seasons.  I question Ottawa's duo in net of Anderson and Hammond and think they need a major influx of talent at the position, either internally or through free agency/trades.  It's hard seeing them being better than Boston, Montreal, Tampa Bay, Florida, or even Buffalo in the Atlantic Division, let alone the rest of the Eastern Conference.  Until Ottawa sees its roster become more talented, hockey fans will have to watch future Hall-of-Famer Erik Karlsson waste his talent on a bad team, similar to Mike Trout of the Los Angeles Angels in Major League Baseball.

Breakout Candidate: 

• C Jean-Gabriel Pageau - Pageau played his first full season in the NHL last season and and had 43 points, his career high.  It looks like he will be centering the third line for Ottawa between Zack Smith and Chris Neil.  If Pageau plays like he did last year, hopefully he has the opportunity to play up in the lineup.

Regression Candidate:

• G Craig Anderson - Anderson is entering his age-35 season and has had a rather up and down career thus far.  Last season, he regained the starter's job in Ottawa and won 31 games.  He has never really been a goalie with a large workload and that could keep his playing career going longer. However, he is certainly coming into the twilight of his career and any season could be the one where he begins his decline.

Bounceback Candidate:

• RW Bobby Ryan - Last year, Ryan played all but one game and had a pretty solid year, scoring 56 points and 22 goals.  These would be decent numbers for someone skating on a second line and not making the $7.25 million that Ryan is making.  Ottawa relies on Ryan to drive their offense from the forward spot and he needs to find a way to get back to his Anaheim days.  I think this is possible and that he could be a driving force in getting Ottawa back into playoff contention.

*All statistics and information come from: rosterresource.com, thehockeywriters.com, hockeydb.com, hockey-reference.com, and generalfanager.com