NHL Preview - St. Louis Blues

St. Louis Blues

2015-16 season: 49-24-9, 107 points Lost in the Western Conference Finals	Head Coach: Ken Hitchcock (2011)
2nd Place Central Division	General Manager: Doug Armstrong (2010)
3rd Place Western Conference	AHL Affiliate: Chicago Wolves ECHL Affiliate:
Cap Space: $3,320,418

News

• Traded G Brian Elliott to Calgary for a 2016 2nd round and a conditional 2017 3rd round pick
• Traded G Anders Nilsson to Buffalo for a 2017 5th round pick
• 10/7 - Traded F Zach Pochiro and a 2017 conditional 3rd RD pick to Edmonton for RW Nail Yakupov

Players Lost in the Offseason

POS.	Player	New Team	Contract
C	Pat Cannone	Minnesota Wild	1 year, $575,000
RW	David Backes	Boston Bruins	5 years, $30,000,000
RW	Troy Brouwer	Calgary Flames	4 years, $18,000,000
RW	Steve Ott	Detroit Red Wings	1 year, $800,000

Incoming Free Agents

POS.	Player	Old Team	Contract
RW	David Perron	Anaheim Ducks	2 years, $7,500,000
RW	Landon Ferraro	Boston Bruins	2 years, $2,250,000
G	Carter Hutton	Nashville Predators	1 year, $700,000

2016 Draft Picks

RD	Pick No.	POS.	Name	Junior/College/Club Team
1	26	C	Tage Thompson	University of Connecticut (Hockey East)
2	35	RW	Jordan Kyrou	Sarnia Sting (OHL)
2	59	G	Evan Fitzpatrick	Sherbrooke Phoenix (QMJHL)
4	119	C	Tanner Kaspick	Brandon Wheat Kings (WHL)
5	125	C	Noah Stevens	Northeastern University (Hockey East)
5	144	C	Conner Bleackley	Red Deer Rebels (WHL)
7	209	F	Nikolaj Krag Christenson	Rodovre (Metal Ligaen)
7	211	LW	Filip Helt	Litvinov Jr (CZREP-JR)

Top Three Prospects

POS	Name	Draft Info	Current Team
RW	Ivan Barbashev	2014 2nd RD (33)	AHL/ECHL
G	Ville Husso	2011 3rd RD (88)	AHL/ECHL
D	Jordan Schmaltz	2012 1st RD (25)	AHL/ECHL

Projected Lineup

Forwards

POS	Name	Age	Nationality	Free Agent Year
LW	(A) Alexander Steen	32	Sweden	2021
C	(A) Paul Stastny	30	USA	2018
RW	(A) Vladimir Tarasenko	24	Russia	2023
LW	Jaden Schwartz	24	Canada	2021
C	Jori Lehtera	28	Finland	2019
RW	David Perron	28	Canada	2018
LW	Robby Rabbri	20	Canada	2018 (RFA)
C	Patrik Berglund	28	Sweden	2017
RW	Scottie Upshall	33	Canada	2017
LW	Dimitrij Jaskin	23	Czech Republic	2018 (RFA)
C	Kyle Brodziak	32	Canada	2018
RW	Ryan Reeves	29	Canada	2018

Defensemen

POS	Name	Age	Nationality	Free Agent Year
D	Jay Bouwmeester	33	Canada	2019
D	(C) Alex Pietrangelo	26	Canada	2020
D	Joel Edmundson	23	Canada	2018 (RFA)
D	(A) Kevin Shattenkirk	27	USA	2017
D	Carl Gunnarsson	29	Sweden	2019
D	Colton Parayko	23	Canada	2017 (RFA)

Goalies

POS	Name	Age	Nationality	Free Agent Year
G	Jake Allen	26	Canada	2021
G	Carter Hutton	30	Canada	2018

Extra Skaters

POS	Name	Age	Nationality	Free Agent Year
RW	Ty Rattie	23	Canada	2017 (RFA)
RW	Landon Ferraro	25	Canada	2017
D	Robert Bortuzzo	27	Canada	2017

Season Outlook

• The 2015-16 St. Louis Blues were an excellent defensive team that made it all the way to the Western Conference Finals where they lost to the San Jose Sharks in six games.  They were led by a defensive unit that could be the second best in the league after Nashville. This unit, along with a goaltending duo of Brian Elliott and Jake Allen, gave up the fourth lowest amount of goals in the league.  Although both goalies were excellent, and they nearly evenly split playing time, Elliott was the better of the two.  His 2.07 GAA was second best in the league and he posted a record of 23-8-6.  On offense, the Blues' first two lines really guided the entire forward group.  Vladimir Tarasenko has become an elite goalscorer, Jaden Schwartz is following in Tarasenko's footsteps, but was injured for most of last season, and Paul Stastny is one of the game's best two-way centers.  Despite being a good defensive team, the Blues struggled with their advanced metrics, exactly the halfway point in Corsi For Percentage, at 15th.  In general, their numbers were all over the board, ranking high in Special Teams, but not in any advanced metrics.  It appears that if the Blues' goalies weren't as good as they were, then the team wouldn't have had as good of a season as they did.  

CAT.	Goals For	Goals Against	PP %	PK%	PDO	Corsi For	Corsi Against	Corsi For %	oZS%	dZS%
Stat	224	201	21.52	85.14	100.7	4465	4455	50.1	48.5	51.5
Blues’  Rank	15th	4th	6th	3rd	8th	19th	12th	1th	29th	29th

PDO= Even Strength Shooting Percentage + Even Strength Save Percentage

Corsi For= Shots + Blocks + Misses while in possession of puck

Crosi Against= Shots + Blocks + Misses while not in possession of puck

Corsi For %= Corsi For/(Corsi For+Corsi Against) -> Above 50% means that team controls play

oZS% = Offensive Zone Start Percentage

dZS% = Defensive Zone Start Percentage

• During the offseason, questions again swirled around the status of head coach Ken Hitchcock's job security, as it has in recent years.  He ultimately came back on a one-year deal, claiming that this year will be his last.  The Blues also brought in former Wild head coach, Mike Yeo, as an assistant and is supposed to take over for Hitchcock after this year.  They also traded Brian Elliott to Calgary and will give Jake Allen the chance to finally be the true number one goaltender in St. Louis.  GM Doug Armstrong also brought back David Perron, who started his career with the blues and excelled in Anaheim after being traded there from Pittsburgh last year and whose game plays well in the Western Conference.  A big absence this upcoming season will be that of former captain David Backes, who signed with Boston during the offseason.  The big question will be what the team does with Kevin Shattenkirk this season, since his contract is up after this year and he will be expecting a big deal for his next contract. There were talks that he was going to be traded this past offseason, but those discussions have been shut down.  St. Louis would love to re-sign him but this most likely won't be possible, as they have only a little over $3 million in cap space currently, and will need to extend defenseman Colton Parayko to a long-term deal.  I think what happens with Shattenkirk will depend on how the Blues are doing around the trade deadline.  If they're in solid playoff position at that time, they may try dealing him for a draft pick and a rental to replace him for the rest of the year.  I don't think they will want to let him go at the end of the year for nothing, but if keeping him for the playoffs and then dealing his rights in the offseason is the best option, then they'll pursue that.  I think the Blues will actually be a better team this season that they were last year, simply because they'll have a healthy Jaden Schwartz and no more goaltending controversy.  This could be the year that they finally take the next step towards the Stanley Cup they have been chasing in recent seasons.

Breakout Candidate

• LW Robby Fabbri - Fabbri played 72 games at the NHL level last year, tallying 37 points and netting 18 goals.  Scoring nearly 20 goals in a rookie season is truly impressive and I think that Fabbri is the real deal.  Fabbri is slated to skate on the third line with Patrik Berglund and will probably have the opportunity to move up the lineup as he succeeds.  I think he will have between 20 and 25 goals this year.
• D Colton Parayko - Last season was Parayko's first experience of any kind at the NHL level and he excelled.  He became their best defenseman in terms of puck possession, although he probably often skated on their third pairing, so he was protected a bit.  I think he will get an opportunity to play up in the pairings this season and is certainly good enough to be a top-four defenseman.  I think that he will eclipse the 33 points he had last season.

Regression Candidate

• I don't believe there is one...no one had an unusually good season last year.

Bounceback Candidate

• LW Jaden Schwartz - Schwartz actually had a pretty decent season last year but was held to just 33 games.  The previous year he had amassed 28 goals and is certainly capable of hitting that mark once again.

*All statistics and information come from: rosterresource.com, thehockeywriters.com,

hockeydb.com, hockey-reference.com, and generalfanager.com