NHL Preview - Edmonton Oilers

Edmonton Oilers

2015-16 season: 31-43-8, 70 points Did not qualify for playoffs	Head Coach: Todd McLellan (2015)
7th Place Pacific Division	General Manager: Peter Chiarelli (2015)
14th Place Western Conference	AHL Affiliate: Bakersfield Condors ECHL Affiliate: Norfolk Admirals
Cap Space: $8,313,835

News

• Traded LW Taylor Hall to New Jersey for D Adam Larsson
• Traded RW Nail Yakupov to St. Louis for Zach Pochiro and and a 2017 conditional 3rd RD pick

Players Lost in the Offseason

POS.	Player	New Team	Contract
LW	Lauri Korpikowski	Calgary Flames	PTO
LW	Adam Cracknell	Dallas Stars	1 year, $600,000
LW	Luke Gazdic	New Jersey Devils	1 year, $700,000
RW	Andrew Miller	Carolina Hurricanes	1 year, $650,000
D	Adam Clendening	New York Rangers	1 year, $600,000
D	Adam Pardy	Florida Panthers	PTO
D	Brad Hunt	St. Louis Blues	1 year, $575,000

Incoming Free Agents

POS.	Player	Old Team	Contract
LW	Milan Lucic	LA Kings	7 years, $42,000,000
LW	Drake Caggiula	U. of North Dakota (NCAA)	2 years, $1,850,000
LW	Kris Versteeg	Carolina Hurricanes	PTO
G	Jonas Gustavsson	Boston Bruins	1 year, $800,000
D	Kris Russell	Dallas Stars	1 year, $3,100,000

2016 Draft Picks

RD	Pick No.	POS.	Name	Junior/College/Club Team
1	4	RW	Jesse Puljujarvi	Outun Karpat (Liiga)
2	32	LW	Tyler Benson	Vancouver Giants (WHL)
3	63	D	Markus Niemelainen	Saginaw Spirit  (OHL)
3	84	D	Matthew Cairns	Georgetown Raiders (OJHL)
3	91	D	Filip Berglund	Skelleftea AIK (SHL)
5	123	G	Dylan Wells	Peterborough Petes (OHL)
5	149	LW	Graham McPhee	U.S. U-18 Team
6	153	C	Aapeli Rasanen	Tappara (Jr A SM-Liiga)
7	183	D	Vincent Desharnais	Providence Friars (Hockey East)

Top Three Prospects

POS	Name	Draft Info	Current Team
G	Laurent Brossoit	2011 6th RD (154)	AHL/ECHL
RW	Jujhar Khaira	2012 3rd RD (63)	AHL/ECHL
LW	Drake Caggiula	Signed NCAA 2016	NHL

Projected Lineup

Forwards

POS	Name	Age	Nationality	Free Agent Year
LW	(A) Milan Lucic	28	Canada	2023
C	(C) Connor McDavid	19	Canada	2018 (RFA)
RW	(A) Jordan Eberle	26	Canada	2019
LW	Leon Draisaitl	20	Germany	2017 (RFA)
C	(A) Ryan Nugent-Hopkins	23	Canada	2021
RW	Benoit Pouliot	30	Canada	2019
LW	Patrick Maroon	28	USA	2018
C	Mark Letestu	31	Canada	2018
RW	Jesse Puljajarvi	18	Finland	2019 (RFA)
LW	Tyler Pitlick	24	USA	2017 (RFA)
C	Anton Lander	25	Sweden	2017 (RFA)
RW	Zack Kassian	25	Canada	2017

Forwards

POS	Name	Age	Nationality	Free Agent Year
D	Andrej Sekera	30	Slovakia	2021
D	Adam Larsson	23	Sweden	2021
D	Oscar Klefbom	25	Sweden	2023
D	Kris Russell	29	Canada	2017
D	Darnell Nurse	25	Canada	2018 (RFA)
D	Mark Fayne	29	USA	2018

Goalies

POS	Name	Age	Nationality	Free Agent Year
G	Cam Talbot	29	Canada	2019
G	Jonas Gustavsson	31	Sweden	2017

Extra Skaters

POS	Name	Age	Nationality	Free Agent Year
LW	Drake Caggiula	22	Canada	2018 (RFA)
RW	Zack Kassian	25	Canada	2017
D	Brandon Davidson	25	Canada	2018 (RFA)

Inactive Players

POS	Name	Age	Nationality	Free Agent Year
D	Andrew Ference	37	Canada	2017

Season Outlook

• I don't really know what to make of the Oilers as a franchise anymore.  They have more straight-up talent than maybe any other team in the league and have had more top-five draft picks in recent years than any one team should ever be allowed having.  After drafting the generationally-talented Connor McDavid with the first overall pick in last year's draft, the Oilers were supposed to be better last season.  However, McDavid got hurt and was limited to just 45 games, and the Oilers finished last in the conference again.  In his limited playing time, McDavid was productive, however, and he proved to be the real deal, putting up 48 points in those games and garnered serious Calder Trophy consideration as the league's top rookie. Beyond McDavid though, there weren't many bright spots for the team.  

CAT.	Goals For	Goals Against	PP %	PK%	PDO	Corsi For	Corsi Against	Corsi For %	oZS%	dZS%
Stat	203	245	18.14	80.71	99.1	4477	4782	48.4	48.8	51.2
Oilers’ Rank	26th	26th	19th	20th	27th	18th	25th	23rd	27th	27th

PDO= Even Strength Shooting Percentage + Even Strength Save Percentage

Corsi For= Shots + Blocks + Misses while in possession of puck

Crosi Against= Shots + Blocks + Misses while not in possession of puck

Corsi For %= Corsi For/(Corsi For+Corsi Against) -> Above 50% means that team controls play

oZS% = Offensive Zone Start Percentage

dZS% = Defensive Zone Start Percentage

• One bright spot the Oilers did have in addition to McDavid was Taylor Hall, who led the team in scoring once again, scoring 65 points, but now Hall is gone.  Oilers' general manager, Peter Chiarelli, made the peculiar decision to trade Hall to New Jersey for defenseman Adam Larsson.  Larsson, while young and talented, probably isn't a first pair defenseman in the NHL, while Hall is a top-five left winger in the league.  When Chiarelli reached out to New Jersey GM Ray Shero to ask about this trade, I can't even begin to fathom how quickly Shero accepted it.  To me, this trade is an absolute win for the Devils.  In order to counter losing Hall's production, Edmonton went out and signed veteran winger Milan Lucic, who Chiarelli has experience with during their time together in Boston.  Lucic, while talented and brings a veteran presence with playoff experience to a young team, is older and not as good as Hall.  It seems that the Oilers could have kept Hall, not signed Lucic, and instead signed one or two of the defensemen available through free agency - Dan Hamhuis, Jason Demers, or even Brian Campbell.  Or perhaps there would have been a better option available than Larsson via trade, such as P.K. Subban, whom Montreal was intent on moving, or Jacob Trouba, who definitely wants out of Winnipeg.  Both of these players would have been a better return than what they got for Hall.  This offseason also saw Edmonton receive yet another top-five draft pick and Edmonton took Finnish winger Jesse Puljajarvi with their first round pick at number four.  It seems like an odd move to continue adding more forward talent through the draft when they've already got plenty of it.  Perhaps taking a defenseman or goaltender with a high pick would be a good idea for a team who has struggled in those areas.  I thought that when they brought in Peter Chiarelli to be their general manager after the 2014-15 season, that it would have signaled a change in strategy, yet that hasn't been the case thus far.  In my opinion, I don't think Edmonton is much further ahead in their rebuild than the Sabres or Maple Leafs, yet the Oilers are giving out big contracts to free agents, instead of giving their prospects time to develop.  It seems like there are too high of expectations placed on the team regarding their season outcomes and fans have bought in to the idea that this roster group is capable of making the playoffs.  I just don't see this as a reality right now, even by adding a player like Milan Lucic. Until they work out their struggles on defense and in net, I don't think the Oilers will be a real threat to make the playoffs.  For this season, I think a full year from McDavid will make the team better, but he's not enough.  There are just too many question marks, even with their young forwards.  If they wanted to trade one of these players (Hall, Eberle, or RNH), I think they picked the wrong one.  Hall is the only one who has been consistently productive and who bought into this franchise's future.  
• Random thought: the NHL should consider adapting an "Oiler" rule that limits the number of consecutive years a team can be in the NHL Draft Lottery.  It's generally accepted that teams need to go through a period of struggle and re-tooling in order to be successful.  For the Oilers, though, this isn't happening.  They have been bad for years now and still don't really have a path to success in front of them.
• I also think that if I were one of these young players, I'd think real hard about whether I'd want to sign that next contract with the Oilers.  While most of them will be restricted free agents when their current contracts expire, and thus the Oilers will have exclusive rights, I wouldn't sign anything long-term with the team.  They haven't shown enough to prove that they will make the proper moves to be able to succeed.  This franchise isn't the Lightning where young players are taking smaller deals to be given the best opportunity to win.

Breakout Candidate

• C Connor McDavid - McDavid, aka "Connor McJesus," had an excellent season for a rookie. His 48 points would be a solid rookie year in a full season for most players, but the fact that he put up that production in only 45 games is astounding.  If he has a full season this year, we will be able to see what he's capable of doing, which is probably nearly double that.  Look for McDavid to have a chance at the scoring title this year.

Regression Candidate

• D Andrej Sekera - Sekera was the Oilers' top-scoring defenseman, who made up one-half of their top pairing.  He has been a fairly productive defenseman throughout his career, but he's now 30 years old and could start seeing some regression, especially since he's a player who has struggle to stay healthy during his career.

Bounceback Candidate

• C Ryan Nugent-Hopkins - When the Oilers drafted RNH with the first overall pick in 2011, I'm sure they thought he would have developed into a more productive player than he has become. He has never really been close to a point-per-game player and last year he only had 34 points in 55 games.  I think that he will bounce back to an extent but that he'll never be the player everyone thought he would be.  He also has struggled with injuries during his time in the NHL, only playing one full season. *Looking back at his draft year, there haven't been a lot of players who have become major contributors.  Even now, RNH was probably the best pick, excluding Johnny Gaudreau, who no one believed would become what he has.*

*All statistics and information come from: rosterresource.com, thehockeywriters.com, hockeydb.com, hockey-reference.com, and generalfanager.com