College Football Playoff Repercussions

Week 9 in college football has come and gone and we saw a couple of teams solidify themselves as legitimate championship contenders in Clemson and Washington and a few teams stumble and most likely now find themselves out of the playoff in Nebraska, Baylor, West Virginia, and Boise State, who had an extreme outside chance of getting in if they ran the table.  So what does this mean for the college football playoff at the end of the season?  Let's take a look.

The top four going into week nine was (1) Alabama, (2) Michigan, (3) Clemson, and (4) Washington. All four of these teams won or had a bye this week so they should remain where they were ranked going into the week. Outside the top four, however, things got rocky as (5) Louisville struggled for most of the game with Virginia, (6) Ohio State barely beat Northwestern, and (7) Nebraska lost a close game in overtime to (11) Wisconsin.  In my opinion, Louisville and Ohio State are lucky that the 7th and 8th ranked teams (#8 Baylor lost to Texas) lost or their poor performances against mediocre teams could have possibly resulted in them dropping in the rankings.

Going forward, Clemson has arguably the clearest path to getting into the playoffs.  The toughest part of their schedule is, by far, behind them and they only have to face two teams down the stretch currently with winning records in Pitt and Wake Forest.  They also play three of their final four games at home in Death Valley, one of the most difficult stadiums for visitors to play in.  Right now, Clemson is leading the Atlantic Division of the ACC with only Louisville even close to their record and Clemson holds that tiebreaker.  After their regular season schedule wraps up and speculating that they win out, Clemson will play in the ACC Championship game most likely against Virginia Tech or North Carolina, with the Hokies holding the tiebreaker.  While neither team is an opponent to take lightly, Clemson is more talented than either of them and would have a great shot at winning the game. For the Tigers, it's this simple: win out and they're in.  If they stumble down the stretch and lose (and it will take a loss to knock them out) then the playoff could get even more interesting.

I think Michigan has the second clearest path to the playoff.  If Michigan wins out, they'll be in, possibly even with a loss in the Big Ten Championship game.  The rest of their schedule includes two tough games, both on the road, at Iowa two weeks from now and at Ohio State to close out their regular season schedule.  If Michigan loses to Ohio State at the end of the year, there would be a tie at the top of the Big Ten East, and if they lose both games, they wouldn't even make the championship game.  Similarly, if Ohio State loses one of their remaining games and beats Michigan (they play Nebraska next week so this is a possibility) and Michigan loses to Iowa and Ohio State, neither the Wolverines nor the Buckeyes would be in the Big Ten Championship game.  Instead, the East Division would be represented by Penn State.  This would also mean that the Big Ten most likely wouldn't have a team in the playoffs.

Next, we have Washington.  Washington is currently ranked fourth in the AP poll and they beat a very talented team in Utah so they will most likely remain there after this week.  Washington has played what has amounted to a relatively easy schedule thus far this season.  Their out-of-conference schedule was a joke, playing Rutgers, Idaho, and Portland State, and Stanford and Oregon have proven to not be good teams this year.  The only really good team they have played was Utah this past weekend and they didn't beat them by a large margin.  Going down the stretch they'll have every opportunity to prove that they belong in the playoffs as they play a high-scoring Cal team on the road, a resurgent USC team, and a Washington State team on the road that is undefeated in conference play and who has no problem putting up points.  If Washington wins out in the regular season and makes it to the PAC-12 Championship game, they'll play either Colorado, Utah, or USC.  However, if Washington State continues to win and beats Washington at the end of the year, the Huskies won't even make the championship game.  I think that right now Washington is the PAC-12's only chance to get a team into the playoffs since there is a big drop off in quality after them.

I think that Alabama, despite being the best team in the country, may have the most difficult path to get into the playoff.  The Tide still have to play at LSU next week, which won't be an easy game by any stretch, and they'll close out their season with the Iron Bowl against Auburn but they'll be hosting the rivalry game this season which will make it a little bit easier.  Auburn, however, has been playing much better in recent weeks than they did at the start of the season and will most certainly give Alabama a hard time.  If Alabama gets through their regular season schedule unscathed, they'll either play Florida or Kentucky in the SEC Championship game, where Florida would be a tough matchup. Even if the Crimson Tide lose one of their final games I think it is almost certain that they'll still get into the playoffs since their schedule has been grueling.  It would take at least two losses for Alabama to even be considered out of the playoffs.

Right now, I think that the only conference guaranteed to get teams into the playoff are the ACC and the SEC.  Even if Clemson stumbled down the stretch, they may still get in with one loss or Louisville would jump them and get in.  The SEC is pretty much guaranteed to get in because even if Alabama loses two games, a one-loss Texas A&M or Florida team would probably get voted in. Currently, the Big Ten has two teams that could make it into the playoffs with either Ohio State or Michigan.  If Michigan wins out and wins the Big Ten, they'll definitely be in the playoff and if Ohio State beats Michigan at the end of the season, there would be a three-way tie at the top of the Big Ten East between them and Penn State.  I think that if either Ohio State or Michigan wins the Big Ten, then the conference is pretty much guaranteed to be in the playoff, but if Penn State were to miraculously get lucky breaks and win the East Division then the Big Ten could be left out.  In the PAC-12, Washington is the only team that could get the conference into the playoffs, but they'd only get in if they win out.  I don't think a one-loss PAC-12 champion is good enough to make it and that there are enough quality teams in other conferences that would get in over the PAC-12.  The Big 12 has the least likely chance for a team to get into the playoff after West Virginia and Baylor both lost this weekend.  They were both undefeated going into their games and were the conference's only chances to get into the playoff since the Big 12 doesn't have a championship game yet.  I think it seems very likely that there will be a conference with two teams in the playoff because I don't know if Washington is good enough to win out the rest of the way.  If that happens the ACC is the most likely candidate to get two teams in with both Clemson and Louisville getting in.  However, if the Big Ten suffers the catastrophe that could be looming and Ohio State and Michigan both lose games down the stretch and Penn State wins the east, then the SEC would also probably get two teams in with Alabama and most likely the winner of the SEC East getting in.

It is all extremely crazy to think about and kind of makes my head hurt trying to decipher it all and, while I am certain that the current format is much better than the BCS era, I think it can still be better. A four team playoff seems like it isn't working because there will almost always be the pull to put four different conferences into the playoff even if one conference deserves to have two teams in.  I think that they should expand the playoff to eight teams which would give an automatic bid to the Power Five conference champions, with the understanding that the Big 12 Conference needs to play a championship game, which they have announced that they're going to do beginning next season.  With five teams automatically qualifying, it allows there to be three at-large bids which could be given to a school not in a Power Five conference that is good enough or to teams that didn't win their conference but are still warranting of a playoff spot.  To me, this idea makes the most sense because there should never be a reason why a conference champion from one of the major conferences doesn't make the playoff, even if the champion happens to have a three or four loss record.  By implementing an eight-team playoff, it would create a system that would actually determine which school is the best in the nation.