NHL Preview - Anaheim Ducks

Anaheim Ducks

2015-16 season: 46-25-11, 103 points Lost in 1st round of Western Conference Playoffs	Head Coach: Randy Carlyle (2016)
1st Place Pacific Division	General Manager: Bob Murray (2005)
2nd Place Western Conference	AHL Affiliate: San Diego Gulls ECHL Affiliate: Utah Grizzlies
Cap Space: $7,520,834

News

• Traded G Frederik Andersen to Toronto for a 2016 1st RD and a 2017 2nd RD pick
• Acquired G Jonathan Bernier from Toronto for a conditional 2017 pick

Players Lost in the Offseason

POS.	Player	New Team	Contract
C	Shawn Horcoff	Retired
C	Chris Mueller	Arizona Coyotes	1 year, $600,000
LW	Jamie McGinn	Arizona Coyotes	3 years, $10,000,000
LW	David Perron	St. Louis Blues	2 years, $7,500,000
LW	Brandon Pirri	New York Rangers	1 year, $1,100,000
LW	Harry Zolnierczyk	Nashville Predators	1 year, $575,000
RW	Chris Stewart	Minnesota Wild	2 years, $2,300,000
G	Anton Khudobin	Boston Bruins	2 years, $2,400,000

Incoming Free Agents

POS.	Player	Old Team	Contract
C	Antoine Vermette	Arizona Coyotes	2 years, $3,500,000
LW	Jared Boll	Columbus Blue Jackets	2 years, $1,800,000
LW	Mason Raymond	Calgary Flames	1 year, $675,000
D	Nathan Guenin	Colorado Avalanche	1 year, $600,000
D	Jeff Schultz	Los Angeles Kings	1 year, $575,000

2016 Draft Picks

RD	Pick No.	POS.	Name	Junior/College/Club Team
1	24	LW	Max Jones	London Knights (OHL)
1	30	C	Sam Steel	Regina Pats (WHL)
3	85	D	Joshua Mahura	Red Deer Rebels (WHL)
4	93	LW	Jack Kopacka	Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds (OHL)
4	115	C	Alex Dostie	Gatineau Olympiques (QMJHL)
7	205	C	Tyler Soy	Victoria Royals (WHL)

Top Three Prospects

POS	Name	Draft Info	Current Team
RW	Stefan Noesen	2014 1st RD (10)	NHL
LW	Nick Ritchie	2011 1st RD (21)	NHL
D	Shea Theodore	2013 1st RD (26)	AHL/ECHL

Projected Lineup

Forwards

POS	Name	Age	Nationality	Free Agent Year
LW	Ryan Garbutt	31	Canada	2017
C	(C) Ryan Getzlaf	31	Canada	2021
RW	(A) Corey Perry	31	Canada	2021
LW	Andrew Cogliano	29	Canada	2018
C	(A) Ryan Kesler	32	USA	2022
RW	Jakob Silfverberg	26	Sweden	2019
LW	Nick Ritchie	20	Canada	2018 (RFA)
C	Rickard Rakell	23	Sweden	2016 (RFA)
RW	Chris Wagner	25	USA	2018
LW	Jared Boll	30	USA	2018
C	Antoine Vermette	34	Canada	2018
RW	Stefan Noesen	23	USA	2017 (RFA)

Defensemen

POS	Name	Age	Nationality	Free Agent Year
D	Hampus Lindholm	22	Sweden	2016 (RFA)
D	Sami Vatanen	25	Finland	2020
D	Cam Fowler	24	USA	2018
D	Kevin Bieksa	35	Canada	2018
D	Clayton Stoner	31	Canada	2018
D	Simon Despres	25	Canada	2021

Goalies

POS	Name	Age	Nationality	Free Agent Year
G	John Gibson	23	USA	2019
G	Jonathan Bernier	28	Canada	2017

Extra Skaters

POS	Name	Age	Nationality	Free Agent Year
LW	Mason Raymond	31	Canada	2017
D	Josh Manson	25	Canada	2018 (RFA)
D	Korbinian Holzer	28	Germany	2017

Inactive Players

POS	Name	Age	Nationality	Free Agent Year
C	Nate Thompson	32	USA	2017

Season Outlook

• Bruce Boudreau should have won an award, or a medal, or something, for the coaching he did last season with the Ducks.  They started off the season by going 1-7-2 in October.  A team normally led by consistently good seasons from Ryan Getzlaf and Corey Perry, quickly found itself struggling to score goals.  Boudreau had to change his system on the fly, turning the team into a more defensively-minded one.  This worked masterfully, as the Ducks finished the season just 19th in Goals For, but first in Goals Against, Powerplay Percentage, and Penalty Kill Percentage.  They were also in the top ten in Corsi For, Corsi Against, and Corsi For Percentage.  Boudreau was able to turn a lot of his players into positive puck possession players who hadn't been that type of player throughout their careers..  The Ducks, in turn, won a lot of close games, and were strengthened by a pair of solid, young goaltenders in Frederik Andersen and John Gibson.  Andersen and Gibson almost evenly split playing time last season and were about even statistically, with Andersen posting a 2.30 GAA and a .919 save percentage, while Gibson had a 2.07 GAA and a .920 save percentage, all numbers that were better than league averages.  As often happens to teams with a two-goalie system when they reach the playoffs, Anaheim dealt with a minor goaltender controversy.  Gibson started the first round against the Predators, but lost the first two games and was replaced by Andersen for the rest of the series. Ultimately, the series went seven games before the Ducks lost, 2-1.  This meant it was yet another game seven loss by a Bruce Boudreau team, something he can't control, especially when his teams have choked in most cases.

CAT.	Goals For	Goals Against	PP %	PK%	PDO	Corsi For	Corsi Against	Corsi For %	oZS%	dZS%
Stat	218	192	22.86	87.24	100.3	4737	4383	51.9	49.7	50.3
Ducks’  Rank	19th	1st	1st	1st	4th	6th	8th	7th	21st	21st

PDO= Even Strength Shooting Percentage + Even Strength Save Percentage

Corsi For= Shots + Blocks + Misses while in possession of puck

Crosi Against= Shots + Blocks + Misses while not in possession of puck

Corsi For %= Corsi For/(Corsi For+Corsi Against) -> Above 50% means that team controls play

oZS% = Offensive Zone Start Percentage

dZS% = Defensive Zone Start Percentage

• Following the season, GM Bob Murray thought it was time to move in another direction and fired Bruce Boudreau, replacing him with Randy Carlyle, who is not half the coach Boudreau is.  Carlyle actually coached Anaheim from 2005-2011, winning a Stanley Cup in 2007, but was fired during the 2011-12 season.  In terms of their teams' puck possession statistics, Boudreau's teams have always either been highly ranked in Corsi For Percentage or have gotten better during his tenure.  Carlyle, on the other hand, has never had a team finish in the top ten in that category, even ranking last in the league his last full season in Anaheim.  In fact, he's only had two seasons (statistics are only available back to the 07-08 season) with a Corsi For Percentage above 50.0.  I don't think this hiring is a good fit at all for Anaheim and that there is potential for a drop off in points because of it.  Another move Bob Murray made was acquiring goalie Jonathan Bernier from Toronto and sending goalie Frederik Andersen to Toronto in separate trades.  This means that all of the success for Anaheim this season will fall onto John Gibson's shoulders, who I think is capable of coming through.  Currently, the Ducks still need to sign defenseman Hampus Lindholm and forward Rickard Rakell, but will probably need to trade away a player to free up the cap space to make these signings possible.  Although the team possibly already has enough space to get these deals done, Anaheim is a franchise that doesn't like being too close to the salary cap and will probably like to have more money available before working out deals.  It has been rumored that defenseman Cam Fowler could be the person who gets moved and there are certainly teams that would want his talent on their blue line.  He will likely get moved to an Eastern Conference team and New Jersey, Boston, and even Detroit have all been teams rumored to be good fits.  For this year, I think Anaheim takes a step back, largely because of the coaching change, and it could expose some of the team's flaws that have been hidden in recent seasons.  

Breakout Candidate

• C Rickard Rakell - This season will be Rakell's second full season in the NHL.  Last year, he hit the 20 goal mark, which is certainly encouraging for the Ducks.  I think that he has the talent and potential to turn into a consistent goalscorer/playmaker in the league and that this season could be when it comes to fruition.  Of course, none of this will be possible if he doesn't get signed to a new deal for this season.

Regression Candidate

• D Clayton Stoner - Stoner has never been an offensive defenseman and that's not why I think he'll regress this season.  I'm thinking of Stoner for this category because of his possession numbers.  Since 09-10, his only two positive puck possession seasons have been the past two years, which have also coincided with his two years in Anaheim with Bruce Boudreau as his coach.  With a new coach who doesn't value this trait, I think Stoner will regress to his norms.

Bounceback Candidate

• C Ryan Getzlaf - Last year, Getzlaf didn't score a goal until his 14th game, which just seems unlikely for a player of his caliber.  Starting off that slow makes it tough for anyone to have a normally productive year.  He finished the season with only 13 goals and 63 points, which is down from his averages.  He is usually good for a point total in the 70's or 80's and I think he'll get back to that this season.

*All statistics and information come from: rosterresource.com, thehockeywriters.com, hockeydb.com, hockey-reference.com, and generalfanager.com