MLB Playoff Preview

In late August I published a post on my projections for the rest of the regular season and how I thought the playoffs would go.  Here's a link to what I wrote.  In the AL I predicted Boston, Cleveland, and Texas would be the division winners and Toronto and Houston would be the Wild Card teams.  In the NL, I picked Chicago, Washington, and LA as the division winners and San Francisco and Miami for the Wild Card.

How did I do?

• I am actually impressed with my picks, getting all six division winners correct and a Wild Card team from each league correct.  Overall, 8 out of 10 is pretty good.  At the time I made my original predictions some of the divisions were basically locked up - Chicago Cubs in the NL Central, Washing in the NL East, and Texas in the AL West.  The only slots that changed from that time were Boston in the AL East, and the Wild Card teams.

Award Predictions

• NL MVP: Kris Bryant, CHI - .292/.385/.554, 39 HR, 102 RBI, 7.7 WAR, 11 DRS
• NL Cy Young: Kyle Hendricks, CHI - 16-8, 2.14 ERA, 170 K, 44 BB, 188 ERA+
• NL Rookie of the Year: Corey Seager, LAD - .308/.365/.512, 26 HR, 72 RBI, 6.1 WAR
• NL Manager of the Year: Dave Roberts, LAD - 91-71, 1st place NL West
• AL MVP: Mookie Betts, BOS - .318/.363/.534, 31 HR, 113 RBI, 26 SB, 9.6 WAR, 32 DRS
• AL Cy Young: Rick Porcello, BOS - 22-4, 3.15 ERA, 189 K, 32 BB, 145 ERA+
• AL Rookie of the Year: Michael Fulmer, DET - 11-7, 3.06 ERA, 132 K,, 42 BB, 135 ERA+
• AL Manager of the Year: Buck Showalter, BAL - 89-73, 3rd AL East

Playoff Predictions

American League

• Wild Card: 
• Toronto > Baltimore - I think that in a one-game showdown, Toronto has the better starting pitcher in Aaron Sanchez, who has proven he can shut down elite offenses.
• ALDS: 
• Texas > Toronto - I think Texas has the better lineup and has enough pitching to shut down Toronto's streaky hitters
• Boston > Cleveland - The way that Boston's pitching rotation came together at the end of the season, mixed with them having the deepest lineup in baseball will be enough to stifle Cleveland's solid pitching staff.
• ALCS:
• Boston > Texas - same reason why I think Boston will beat Cleveland

National League

• Wild Card: 
• San Francisco > New York Mets - I think that the Giants' playoff experience plus Madison Bumgarner's presence in a one-game wild card will be enough to beat the Mets, who will probably be throwing Noah Syndergaard.
• NLDS:
• Los Angeles > Washington - The Nationals not having Strasburg plus the down year Bryce Harper is having would make it tough to pick them.  Plus, the Dodgers have Kershaw, Hill, and a great left-handed lineup.
• Chicago Cubs > San Francisco - I want to pick the Giants because it's an even year, but the depth of the Cubs' rotation compared to that of the Giants just makes the Cubs too tough to beat.
• NLCS:
• Los Angeles > Chicago - This may be an unpopular pick, but I think that the Dodgers are the only team who can compete with the Cubs in terms of rotation and the number of true hitters in their lineup.  Chicago has a right-handed rotation after Lester and the Dodgers hit righties really well.

World Series

• Boston > Los Angeles in 6 games - I think Boston having home-field advantage in the World Series will be pivotal in this series, since Fenway is one of the more difficult parks for visitors to play in.  The Red Sox could also throw two lefties if they wanted and that could prove to be a problem for the Dodgers.  Plus, the Red Sox have a balanced lineup of righties and lefties who I think will be able to neutralize the Dodgers' starting pitching.

*We'll see how my predictions go starting Tuesday when the Orioles play the Blue Jays, but I feel surprisingly confident about them.  I also will be doing a team-by-team season recap/offseason preview where I discuss how each team did this season and what they need to do this offseason.