Thursday, October 6, 2016

NHL Preview - Arizona Coyotes

Arizona Coyotes

2015-16 season: 35-39-8, 78 points
Did not qualify for playoffs
Head Coach: Dave Tippett (2009)
4th Place Pacific Division
General Manager: John Chayka (2016)
10th Place Western Conference
AHL Affiliate: Tucson Roadrunners
ECHL Affiliate: Rapid City Rush
Cap Space: $2,342,162

News

  • 10/3 - Agreed to an extension with restricted free agent Tobias Rieder - 2 years, AAV $2.225 million
  • Traded a 2016 5th round pick to Dallas for Alex Goligoski's negotating rights
  • Traded Joe Vitale and a 2016 1st round pick and 2016 2nd round compensatory pick to Detroit for Pavel Datsyuk's contract and a 2016 1st round pick
  • Traded a 2017 3rd pick and a 2018 conditional 2nd round pick to Florida for Lawson Crouse and Dave Bolland's contract

Players Lost in the Offseason

POS.
Player
New Team
Contract
LW
Antoine Vermette
Anaheim Ducks
2 years, $3,500,000
LW
Alex Tanguay
Free Agent

C
Boyd Gordon
Philadelphia Flyers
1 year, $950,000
RW
Steve Downie
Free Agent

D
Nicklas Grossman
Calgary Flames
PTO
D
Philip Samuelsson
Montreal Canadiens
1 year, $600,000
D
Alex Grant
Boston Bruins
1 year, $600,000
G
Anders Lindback
New Jersey Devils
PTO

Incoming Free Agents

POS.
Player
Old Team
Contract
LW
Jamie McGinn
Anaheim Ducks
3 years, $10,000,000
RW
Radim Vrbata
Vancouver Canucks
1 year, $1,000,000
C
Ryan White
Philadelphia Flyers
1 year, $1,000,000
C
Chris Mueller
Anaheim Ducks
1 year, $600,000
D
Luke Schenn
Los Angeles Kings
2 years, $2,5000,000
D
Jamie McBain
Los Angeles Kings
1 year, $600,000
G
Justin Peters
Washington Capitals
1 year, $600,000

2016 Draft Picks

RD
Pick No.
POS.
Name
Junior/College/Club Team
1
7
C
Clayton Keller
U.S. National Development Team (USHL)
1
16
D
Jakob Chychrun
Sarnia Sting (OHL)
3
68
D
Cam Dineen
North Bay Battalion (OHL)
6
158
D
Patrick Kudla
Oakville Blades (OJHL)
7
188
D
Deon Stewart
Portage Terriers (MJHL)

Top Three Prospects

POS
Name
Draft Info
Current Team
RW
Nick Merkley
2015 1st RD (30)
Kelowna Rockets (WHL)
RW
Christian Fischer
2012 2nd RD (32)
AHL/ECHL
RW
Conor Garland
2015 5th RD (123)
Moncton Wildcats (QMJHL)

Projected Lineup

Forwards
POS
Name
Age
Nationality
Free Agent Year
LW
Max Domi
21
Canada
2018 (RFA)
C
Dylan Strome (maybe)
19
Canada
2019 (RFA)
RW
Anthony Duclair
21
Canada
2017 (RFA)
LW
Jamie McGinn
28
Canada
2019
C
(A) Martin Hanzal
29
Czech Republic
2017
RW
Radim Vrbata
35
Czech Republic
2017
LW
Jordan Martinook
24
Canada
2017 (RFA)
C
Brad Richardson
31
Canada
2018
RW
(C) Shane Doan
40
Canada
2017
LW
Christian Dvorak
20
USA
2019 (RFA)
C
Ryan White
28
Canada
2017
RW
Laurent Dauphin
21
Canada
2018 (RFA)
*Dylan Strome could end up staying with the Erie Otters, his junior hockey team.  I feel like the Coyotes will start him in the NHL and determine whether to keep him up after nine games.
Defensemen
POS
Name
Age
Nationality
Free Agent Year
D
Oliver Ekman-Larsson
25
Sweden
2019
D
Michael Stone
26
Canada
2017
D
Alex Goligoski
31
USA
2021
D
Connor Murphy
23
USA
2022
D
Kevin Connaughton
25
Canada
2018
D
Luke Schenn
26
Canada
2018
Goalies
POS
Name
Age
Nationality
Free Agent Year
G
Mike Smith
34
Canada
2019
G
Louis Domingue
24
Canada
2018
Extra Skaters
POS
Name
Age
Nationality
Free Agent Year
RW
Tobias Rieder
23
Germany
2018
C
Tyler Gaudel
23
Canada
2017 (RFA)
RW
Craig Cunningham
26
Canada
2017
D
Zbynek Michalek
33
Czech Republic
2017
Inactive Players
POS
Name
Age
Nationality
Free Agent Year
RW
Pavel Datsyuk
38
Russia
2017
C
Dave Bolland
30
Canada
2019
D
Jared Tinordi
24
USA
2017
D
Chris Pronger
42
Canada
2017




















Season Outlook

  • The Coyotes are in the middle of a rebuild and made significant strides last season towards becoming more competitive and successful.  Max Domi and Anthony Duclair both had their first full NHL seasons and contributed a great deal.  This is really encouraging for an Arizona franchise that needs their young players to develop and become major pieces.  There were two bright spots on the Coyotes' defense, in Oliver Ekman-Larsson and Michael Stone.  OEL is one of the league's better defensemen and has been the Coyotes' best for several years now.  He is also one of the NHL's better two-way defensemen who can move the puck similar to that of Erik Karlsson.  Michael Stone turned 26 over this past offseason and had his best season as a professional, putting up 36 points.  They had a real struggle in net, where neither Mike Smith nor Louis Domingue were good.  Both had GAA's above 2.50 and save percentages under .920. The results on the ice was not good, actually finishing fourth in the division, but were still twenty points behind third place.  They were near the bottom of the league in every statistical category, so the lack of wins makes sense.  That being said, there were encouraging signs for the Coyotes and a bright future ahead.
CAT.
Goals For
Goals Against
PP %
PK%
PDO
Corsi For
Corsi Against
Corsi For %
oZS%
dZS%
Stat
209
249
17.67
77.30
99.9
4298
4783
47.3
49.7
50.3
Coyotes’
 Rank
25th
27th
21st
29th
19th
26th
26th
28th
22nd
22nd
PDO= Even Strength Shooting Percentage + Even Strength Save Percentage
Corsi For= Shots + Blocks + Misses while in possession of puck
Crosi Against= Shots + Blocks + Misses while not in possession of puck
Corsi For %= Corsi For/(Corsi For+Corsi Against) -> Above 50% means that team controls play
oZS% = Offensive Zone Start Percentage
dZS% = Defensive Zone Start Percentage
  • During the offseason, the Coyotes' ownership group relieved GM Don Maloney of his duties and hired John Chayka as his replacement.  Chayka, at 27, is the youngest GM in NHL history and has no GM experience at any level.  Rather, he comes from an analytical background, which could serve as a changing point in the league from a traditional front office of former players to one similar to those found in Major League Baseball.  The Coyotes are using their massive cap space to take on other teams' bad contracts or contracts of players who are injured long-term. In taking on these contracts, they also receive draft picks and/or prospects, which works to build the future of the Coyotes.  Any signings they made this offseason were either just to fill out their roster or were to add to the young, talented core they have started.  Following this year's draft, The Hockey Writers ranked their farm system as the second-best in the league, and they have only just started to crack the surface in terms of calling players up.  Their talent is mostly at forward and on defense and will need to figure something out for their future in net, which is currently their only weak spot.  Mike Smith and Louis Domingue aren't cutting it as NHL goaltenders and they also don't have any elite goalie prospects currently in their system.  They will either have to draft someone with upside in the next few drafts or sign someone via free agency.  With several major contracts expiring in the next few years (Martin Hanzal, Shane Doan, Zbynek Michalek, Pavel Datsyuk, and Chris Pronger), Arizona will have a lot of money available to extend their young players to bridge contracts or long-term ones, and sign a big name free agent or two.  If they choose to go the free agent route, they should try and follow the Maple Leafs' path of not signing free agents just because they have the money, but rather ensuring that the free agents are proper fits for their plan.  Arizona currently has one of the best young cores in the league and look to be in line with Toronto, Edmonton, Calgary, and Florida as the next wave of talented teams looking to make the jump into the playoffs.  For this season, however, they will not be good, and that's okay.  They shouldn't rush this process because they are on the right path.  When they made the playoffs several years ago, it never felt like they truly belonged there, and it proves that the best way to succeed in sports today is to experience failure first.  That's where the Coyotes are right now.  The only question I have about them is whether they will in fact remain in Arizona or if they will be forced to relocate.  Last season, the Coyotes had the second worst attendance numbers in the league and that has been a continual problem for this franchise.  In 2015, the team signed a contract with the city of Glendale for a new two-year lease regarding arena usage.  The NHL has hinted at Quebec City as a possible landing spot for a relocation bid and Arizona could be the team that moves.

Breakout Candidate

  • LW Max Domi, C Dylan Strome - My actual pick for this is Dylan Strome, but because there's not a guarantee that he'll be in the NHL all year long, I didn't feel confident making him my only pick.  Strome is an elite hockey player who will certainly produce at the NHL level.  He scored 111 points last season with the Erie Otters, his junior hockey club.  In my opinion, there's no reason for the Coyotes to play him beyond the nine game threshold, as that would start his NHL service time.  My backup candidate for this is Max Domi, only because I think that he could be even better than he was last season.

Regression Candidate

  • RW Shane Doan - Doan had 47 points in 72 games last season, which has been close to his average production in recent seasons.  I think 72 games could be a bit much for a player who is 40 years old.  I think he'll regress this season in terms of health and that will, in turn, cause his production to regress.

Bounceback Candidate

  • I don't think that there's anyone who truly fits this mold, just because anyone who had a bad year last year I don't think is capable of bouncing back.
*All statistics and information come from: rosterresource.com, thehockeywriters.com,
hockeydb.com, hockey-reference.com, and generalfanager.com

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