ESPN's Bizarre Hockey Picks

In the current issue of ESPN the Mag, the October 17th issue, hockey writer Matthew Coller made his hockey picks based on a predictor developed by Hockey Prospectus called VUKOTA.  VUKOTA factors in teams' past performances to project their goal differentials.  Coller, who works for Hockey Prospectus, analyzed the picks and then ESPN's Barry Melrose (also a failed NHL coach) agreed or disagreed.  Personally, I think the results derived from VUKOTA are crazy and the fact that Coller defends these results and that Melrose sometimes agrees with them is beyond understanding.

VUKOTA's Predictions

Atlantic Division

POS	TEAM	PROJ PTS	Playoff Pos.
1	Tampa Bay Lightning	97	1
2	Ottawa Senators	96	2
3	Florida Panthers	96	3
4	Boston Bruins	95	WC1
5	Montreal Canadiens	93	WC2
6	Buffalo Sabres	90	X
7	Detroit Red Wings	90	X
8	Toronto Maple Leafs	82	X

Metro Division

POS	TEAM	PROJ PTS	Playoff Pos.
1	Washington Capitals	99	1
2	Pittsburgh Penguins	96	2
3	New York Rangers	96	3
4	New York Islanders	92	X
5	Columbus Blue Jackets	91	X
6	Philadelphia Flyers	91	X
7	Carolina Hurricanes	90	X
8	New Jersey Devils	87	X

Central Division

POS	TEAM	PROJ PTS	Playoff Pos.
1	Chicago Blackhawks	95	1
2	Winnipeg Jets	93	2
3	Nashville Predators	93	3
4	St Louis Blues	92	WC1
5	Dallas Stars	92	WC2
6	Minnesota Wild	92	X
7	Colorado Avalanche	92	X

Pacific Division

POS	TEAM	PROJ PTS	Playoff Pos.
1	San Jose Sharks	95	1
2	Los Angeles Kings	92	2
3	Calgary Flames	91	3
4	Edmonton Oilers	90	X
5	Anaheim Ducks	89	X
6	Arizona Coyotes	87	X
7	Vancouver Canucks	85	X

• The projections also have Tampa Bay winning the Stanley Cup

Thoughts

• I cannot understand how all of the teams in the Central are expected to finish within three points, from winner to the last place team.  I know that there is more parody in the league than there has ever been, but this seems a bit drastic.  
• Winnipeg finishing second in the division? And above Nashville, St. Louis, Dallas, and Colorado?  The only team in that division that I think the Jets are even marginally better than are the Avalanche.  Coller suggests that the reason the Jets will be that much better than last season is because of Ondrej Pavelec performing better and being pushed by Connor Hellebuyck. There is a problem with this as Pavelec isn't even in the NHL right now after clearing waivers and being sent down to the AHL.  Hellebuyck is a great goaltending prospect, but he is young still and needs to develop more.  The Jets also don't know what's going to happen with defenseman Jacob Trouba who is one of their best defensemen but is stuck behind Dustin Byfuglien and Tyler Myers on the right side.  It's hard to even fathom that they'll be better than last season, much less better than all of the teams listed above.  And Barry Melrose, in his infinite wisdom, agrees with the pick, claiming Winnipeg has a solid defense.  I just don't buy this pick at all.  In addition to Winnipeg just not being as good as what Coller and Melrose think they are, Nashville improved over the offseason, St Louis is every bit as good as they were last year and Minnesota improved with their coaching change.  Winnipeg will probably finish last, or next-to-last in the Central this season.
• The projections also have Chicago winning the Central division which isn't as crazy as Winnipeg finishing second, but I think that the Blackhawks lost too much during the offseason to win the division.  Other teams in the division, Nashville especially, improved for this season and I think are simply more talented than Chicago.  Adding P.K. Subban should give the Predators a more potent offense from the back end.  
• I take great issue with the fact that the projections include Ottawa as a playoff team from the Atlantic Division.  The Senators were a horrible team last season and didn't really improve during the offseason.  Outside of their top three defensemen, their defense is just bad. Goaltender Craig Anderson hasn't been good since the 2012-13 season and he only played in 24 games that year.  I think that Ottawa is considerably worse than Florida, Boston, and Montreal and they will be in the bottom of the division.  It's hard to imagine that they're even better than the Maple Leafs, who were one of the worst teams in the league last season, but a team that improved greatly since last year.

Conclusion

• In my opinion, these projections are completely off and the fact that Coller and Melrose defended these is just appalling.  The only people at ESPN who know anything about hockey, and should be allowed writing about the sport, are Craig Custance, Pierre Lebrun, and Scott Burnside.  Barry Melrose was a horrible NHL head coach, wasn't good as a World Cup of Hockey commentator, and isn't good at writing hockey.  As much as I want the NHL to grow, I'd like to see ESPN stay away from the sport of hockey.  Somehow, the company has found a way to make NBC analysts look like experts when it comes to covering the sport.  Secondly, I think this is where analytics and new-age thinking on hockey isn't as good as logical thinking and simply watching the game.