NHL Preview - Washington Capitals

Washington Capitals

2015-16 season: 56-18-8, 120 points Lost in 2nd RD of Eastern Conference Playoffs	Head Coach: Barry Trotz (2014)
1st Place Metro Division	General Manager: Brian MacLellan (2014)
1st Place Eastern Conference	AHL Affiliate: Hershey Bears ECHL Affiliate: South Carolina Stingrays
Cap Space: $3,454,874

News

• Traded two 2nd RD picks (2017 and 2018) to Montreal for center Lars Eller

Players Lost in the Offseason

POS.	Player	New Team	Contract
LW	Jason Chimera	New York Islanders	2 years, $4,500,000
C	Mike Richards	Free Agency
C	Carter Camper	New Jersey Devils	1 year, $575,000
RW	Michael Latta	Los Angeles Kings	1 year, $600,000
D	Mike Weber	St. Louis Blues	PTO
D	Ryan Stanton	Colorado Avalanche	1 year, $575,000
G	Dan Ellis	Free Agency
G	Justin Peters	Arizona Coyotes	1 year, $600,000

Incoming Free Agents

POS.	Player	Old Team	Contract
LW	Brett Connolly	Boston Bruins	1 year, $850,000
LW	Brad Malone	Carolina Hurricanes	1 year, $575,000

2016 Draft Picks

RD	Pick No.	POS.	Name	Junior/College/Club Team
1	28	D	Lucas Johansen	Kelowna Rockets (WHL)
3	87	C	Garrett Pilon	Kamloops Blazers (WHL)
4	117	LW	Damien Riat	Geneve Servette (Swiss-A)
5	145	LW	Beck Malenstyn	Calgary Hitmen (WHL)
5	147	LW	Axel Jonsson-Fjallby	Djurgarden Jrs (SHL)
6	177	D	Chase Priskie	Quinnipiac University (ECAC)
7	207	D	Dmitriy Zaitsev	Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Knights (NAHL)

Top Three Prospects

POS	Name	Draft Info	Current Team
G	Ilya Samsonov	2015 1st RD (22)	Metallurg Magnitogorsk (KHL)
RW	Jakub Vrana	2014 1st RD (13)	AHL/ECHL
RW	Riley Barber	2012 6th RD (167)	AHL

Projected Lineup

Forwards

POS	Name	Age	Nationality	Free Agent Year
LW	(C) Alex Ovechkin	31	Russia	2021
C	(A) Nicklas Backstrom	28	Sweden	2020
RW	T.J. Oshie	29	USA	2017
LW	Marcus Johansson	26	Sweden	2019
C	Evgeny Kuznetsov	24	Russia	2017 (RFA)
RW	Justin Williams	35	Canada	2017
LW	Andre Burakovsky	21	Russia	2017 (RFA)
C	Lars Eller	27	Denmark	2018
RW	Daniel Winnik	31	Canada	2017
LW	Brett Connolly	23	Canada	2017
C	Jay Beagle	30	Canada	2018
RW	Tom Wilson	22	Canada	2018 (RFA)

Defensemen

POS	Name	Age	Nationality	Free Agent Year
D	Karl Alzner	28	Canada	2017
D	John Carlson	26	USA	2018
D	Dmitry Orlov	25	Russia	2017 (RFA)
D	Matt Niskanen	29	USA	2021
D	(A) Brooks Orpik	36	USA	2019
D	Nate Schmidt	25	USA	2017 (RFA)

Goalies

POS	Name	Age	Nationality	Free Agent Year
G	Braden Holtby	27	Canada	2020
G	Philipp Grubauer	24	Germany	2017 (RFA)

Extra Skaters

POS	Name	Age	Nationality	Free Agent Year
C	Stanislav Galiev	24	Russia	2017 (RFA)
RW	Paul Carey	28	USA	2017
D	Taylor Chorney	29	Canada	2018

Season Outlook

• Last year, Washington was the best team in the league all year long.  They looked great to the eye and their numbers support it.  They were right near the top of the league in all of the major categories (Goals For, Goals Against, Powerplay Percentage, Penalty Kill Percentage, and PDO).  Alex Ovechkin and Nicklas Backstrom had their usual, consistently good seasons and, then-23 year old, Evgeny Kuznetsov, had a major breakout season, putting up 77 points.  In net, Braden Holtby tied the NHL record with 48 wins en route to winning the Vezina Trophy as the league's best goaltender.  Their only problem area occurred on defense, where John Carlson and Brooks Orpik both missed significant time and the sixth spot was a revolving door.  They struggled in general with puck possession, ranking just 16th in the league in Corsi For Percentage at 50.1.  For a team that finished the season with 120 points, you would think that their possession numbers would be better.  Ultimately, the Capitals went into the playoffs and ran into a white hot Penguins team in the Eastern Conference Semi Finals, losing in six close games.

CAT.	Goals For	Goals Against	PP %	PK %	PDO	Corsi For	Corsi Against	Corsi For %	oZS%	dZS%
Stat	252	193	21.91	85.16	101.5	4612	4591	50.1	51.7	48.3
Capitals’ Rank	2nd	2nd	5th	2nd	1st	11th	17th	16th	11th	11th

PDO= Even Strength Shooting Percentage + Even Strength Save Percentage

Corsi For= Shots + Blocks + Misses while in possession of puck

Crosi Against= Shots + Blocks + Misses while not in possession of puck

Corsi For %= Corsi For/(Corsi For+Corsi Against) -> Above 50% means that team controls play

oZS% = Offensive Zone Start Percentage

dZS% = Defensive Zone Start Percentage

• This offseason, the Capitals didn't really do anything to fix their woes on defense.  They also currently have only five of their six projected starting defensemen under contract for this season, as Dimitry Orlov needs a contract yet.  It will be interesting to see if the two sides can work something out, as Orlov has said he's unsure if he wants to stay in Washington long-term. Orpik will continue to be a problem as he is 36 and has played a hard type of hockey throughout his career.  He's also due $5.5 million per season through the 2018-19 season and will probably be exposed in the NHL Expansion Draft next summer but may go unclaimed.  They did bring in center Lars Ellers via trade form Montreal and signed Brett Connolly to add forward depth. The Caps currently have a little over $3 million left in cap space, which will give them enough to sign Orlov but little else.  Their struggle will come following this season, when Kuznetsov, Andre Burakovsky, Karl Alzner, and Nate Schmidt are all in need of new contracts and are all probably due raises, especially Kuznetsov and Burakovsky.  They could get some cap relief from the expiration of T.J. Oshie, Justin Williams, and Daniel Winnik's contracts, but they may want to re-sign Oshie.  For this season, I think Washington will be really good once again, although I don't know if they'll get 120 points again.  For this team, regular season success is only so good, but it's what happens in the playoffs that matters the most.  It's also the area where they've always struggled to find success.
• *9/21 - Re-signed Dimitry Orlov to a one-year contract extension

Breakout Candidate:

• RW Tom Wilson - I'm not really certain what the expectations are for Wilson in terms of his output.  Considering he was drafted with the 16th overall pick in 2012, you'd think that the expectations would be a little higher than what he has produced thus far in his career.  When he was in the minors, he had tremendous seasons, so obviously he can score at a solid clip.  I'm unsure if he will have the opportunity to do so while skating on the fourth line, but I think he will do better than the 23 points he had last season, which was his career high.

Regression Candidate:

• RW Justin Williams - Williams will turn 35 before the season starts and is coming off a year where he produced one of the highest point totals of his career.  He also netted 22 goals, which was also nearly a career high.  I think Williams is a great and consistent player but that he played above his talent level last year.  I think he will regress a bit this year.

Bounceback Candidate:

• D John Carlson - Carlson had a great season last year, but only appeared in 56 games, and that's why I picked him.  Washington doesn't really have anyone that had better than expected years, except Chimera who is with the Islanders now.  I feel that Carlson will have a full season again, which is his norm, and that his production will be back to its usual.

*All statistics and information come from: rosterresource.com, thehockeywriters.com, hockeydb.com, hockey-reference.com, and generalfanager.com