Thursday, September 15, 2016

NHL Preview - Montreal Canadiens

Montreal Canadiens

2015-16 season: 38-38-6, 82 points
Head Coach: Michel Terrien (2012)
6th Place Atlantic Division
General Manager: Marc Bergevin (2012)
13th Place Eastern Conference
AHL Affiliate: St. John’s IceCaps
ECHL Affiliate: Brampton Beast
Cap Space: $1,430,359

Team News

  • Acquired RW Andrew Shaw from Chicago for two 2nd Round draft picks
  • Traded C Lars Eller to Washington for two 2nd Round draft picks
  • Traded D P.K. Subban to Nashville in exchange for D Shea Weber

Players Lost in the Offseason

POS.
Player
New Team
Contract
RW
Mike Brown – Claimed off waivers
San Jose Sharks

C
Gabriel Dumont
Tampa Bay Lightning
1 year, $575,000
LW
Michael Bournival
Tampa Bay Lightning
1 year, $575,000
D
Tom Gilbert
LA Kings
1 year, $1,400,000
D
Victor Bartley
Minnesota Wild
1 year, $650,000
G
Ben Srivens
Dinamo Minsk (KHL)

Incoming Free Agents

POS.
Player
Old Team
Contract
RW
Alexander Radulov
CSKA Moscow (KHL)
1 year, $5,750,000
G
Al Montoya
Florida Panthers
1 year, $950,000
LW
Chris Terry
Carolina Hurricanes
1 year, $600,000

2016 Draft Picks

RD
Pick No.
POS.
Name
Junior/College/Club Team
1
9
D
Mikail Sergachev
Windsor Spitfires (OHL)
3
70
C
William Bitten
Flint Firebirds (OHL)
4
100
D
Victor Mete
London Knights (OHL)
5
124
D
Casey Staum
Grand Rapids (High School)
6
160
C
Michael Pezzetta
Sudbury Wolves (OHL)
7
187
D
Arvid Henrikson
AIK Jrs (Sweden)

Top Three Prospects

POS
Name
Draft Info
Current Team
G
Zachary Fuchele
2013 2nd RD (36)
AHL/ECHL
G
Charlie Lindgren
Signed NCAA 2016
AHL/ECHL
C
Mike McCarron
2013 1st RD (25)
AHL/ECHL

Projected Lineup

Forwards

POS
Name
Age
Nationality
Free Agent Year
LW
(C) Max Paccioretty
27
USA
2019
C
Alex Galchenyuk
22
USA
2017 (RFA)
RW
(A) Brendan Gallagher
24
Canada
2021
LW
Paul Byron
27
Canada
2019
C
(A) Thomas Plekanec
33
Czech Republic
2018
RW
Alexander Radulov
30
Russia
2017
LW
Stefan Matteau
22
USA
2017 (RFA)
C
David Desharnais
30
Canada
2017
RW
Andrew Shaw
25
Canada
2022
LW
Sven Andrighetto
23
Switzerland
2017 (RFA)
C
Phillip Danault
23
Canada
2018 (RFA)
RW
Torey Mitchell
31
Canada
2018
Defensmen

POS
Name
Age
Nationality
Free Agent Year
D
(A) Andrei Markov
37
Russia
2017
D
(A) Shea Weber
31
Canada
2026
D
Alexei Emelin
30
Russia
2018
D
Nathan Bealieu
23
Canada
2017 (RFA)
D
Jeff Petry
28
USA
2021
D
Greg Pataryn
26
USA
2018
Goalies

POS
Name
Age
Nationality
Free Agent Year
G
Carey Price
29
Canada
2018
G
Al Montoya
31
USA
2017
Extra Skaters

POS
Name
Age
Nationality
Free Agent Year
RW
Brian Flynn
28
USA
2017
LW
Chris Terry
27
Canada
2017
D
Mark Barberio
26
Canada
2018





















Season Outlook

  • Montreal jumped out of the gate last season on fire, going 10-2-0 during October.  Then goalie Carey Price suffered the ever-vague Lower Body Injury on October 29, ended up  missing most of the season, and was limited to just 12 games.  RW Brendan Gallagher suffered broken bones in his hand on November 22, having to undergo surgery to repair the breaks, and didn't return until the Winter Classic on New Year's Day.  Montreal just seemed like a mess last season, and it nearly cost head coach Michel Terrien and GM Marc Bergevin their jobs.  The team and their fans learned very quickly the value of Carey Price and without him the team struggled in all areas.  They weren't good at keeping the puck out of the net and they didn't score a lot of goals either.  Their defense appeared out of sorts all year, probably because they weren't as trusting in back-up goaltenders as they are in Price.
CAT.
Goals For
Goals Against
PP %
PK %
PDO
Corsi For
Corsi Against
Corsi For %
oZS%
dZS%
Stat
221
236
16.22
81.89
99.2
4708
4447
51.4
49.6
50.4
Canadiens’ Rank
17th
22nd
26th
12th
25th
7th
11th
8th
23rd
23rd

PDO= Even Strength Shooting Percentage + Even Strength Save Percentage
Corsi For= Shots + Blocks + Misses while in possession of puck
Crosi Against= Shots + Blocks + Misses while not in possession of puck
Corsi For %= Corsi For/(Corsi For+Corsi Against) -> Above 50% means that team controls play
oZS% = Offensive Zone Start Percentage
dZS% = Defensive Zone Start Percentage

  • This year, the Habs pulled off the biggest trade of the offseason, sending defenseman P.K. Subban to Nashville for defenseman Shea Weber.  It's hard to imagine how Montreal wins this trade in anyway, except maybe in the very present.  However, with Weber already 31 and under contract through the 2025-26 season, it seems unlikely that Montreal will win this deal long-term.  Weber should help their powerplay, and lead their defensive corps, but it remains to be seen if trading Subban for him will be worth it.  Montreal lacks much in the way of scoring and it is still up in the air if Alex Galchenyuk is truly a first line center.  They took a chance on the much-maligned Alexander Radulov by signing him to a one-year, low-risk contract.  If he performs well, then Montreal is the beneficiary and, if he doesn't, they let him walk after this season.  For this team, if Carey Price stays healthy they should be a playoff team, but not a division-winning one.  If the team gets off to a bad start, however, Michel Terrien will probably be looking for a new job by November.

Breakout Candidate:

  • RW Brendan Gallagher - in 53 games last season, Gallagher was nearly a point-per-game player.  He scored 19 goals, the second highest mark of his career, and is looking to build on last season.  Look for him to become a 25-30 goal scorer this year.

Regression Candidate:

  • D Andrei Markov - Markov will turn 38 this season and, at his age, any season could be the year where he begins to regress.  As an older player who plays big-time minutes, he could quickly begin showing his age while playing against the numerous young and fast players in the Eastern Conference.

Bounceback Candidate:

  • RW Alexander Radulove - Radulov doesn't have much of an NHL track record to go off of but when he has been in North America playing, he has been successful.  He has spent the past four years playing in the KHL and has put up solid production over there.  But, the competition in the KHL isn't quite on the same level as in the NHL, so I think he will boune back from having not played over here in quite awhile and be productive for the Canadiens.
*All statistics and information come from: rosterresource.com, thehockeywriters.com, hockeydb.com, hockey-reference.com, and generalfanager.com

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