NHL Preview - Tampa Bay Lightning

Tampa Bay Lightning

2015-16 season: 46-31-5, 97 points, Lost in the Eastern Conference Finals	Head Coach: Jon Cooper (2013)
2nd Place Atlantic Division	General Manager: Pierre Dorian (2016)
6th Place Eastern Conference	AHL Affiliate: Syracuse Crunch ECHL Affiliate: Kalamazoo Wings
Cap Space: $6,591,667

Free Agents Lost in the Offseason

POS.	Player	New Team	Contract
RW	Jonathan Marchessault	Florida Panthers	2 years, $1,500,000
RW	Mike Blunden	Ottawa Senators	2 years, $1,470,000
D	Matt Carle	Nashville Predators	1 year, $700,000
D	Mattias Ohlund	Retired

Incoming Free Agents

POS.	Player	Old Team	Contract
D	James Wisnieswki	Carolina Hurricanes	Professional Tryout

2016 Draft Picks

RD	Pick No.	POS.	Name	Junior/College/Club Team
1	27	C	Brett Holden	Moose Jaw Warriors (WHL)
2	37	D	Libor Hajek	Saskatoon Blades (WHL)
2	44	LW	Boris Katchouk	Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds (OHL)
2	58	RW	Taylor Raddysh	Erie Otters (OHL)
3	88	G	Connor Ingram	Kamloops Blazers (WHL)
4	118	C	Ross Colton	Cedar Rapids RoughRiders (USHL)
5	148	C	Christopher Paquette	Niagara IceDogs (OHL)
6	178	D	Oleg Sosunov	Loko-Yunior Yarosla (MHL)
7	206	C	Otto Somppi	Halifax Mooseheads (QMJHL)
7	208	C	Ryan Lohin	Waterloo Black Hawks (USHL)

Top Three Prospects

POS	Name	Draft Info	Current Team
LW	Adam Erne	2013 2nd RD (33)	AHL/ECHL
LW	Nikita Gusev	2012 7th RD (202)	SKA St. Petersburg
C	Braden Point	2014 3rd RD (79)	AHL/ECHL

Projected Lineup

Forwards

POS	Name	Age	Nationality	Free Agent Year
LW	Alex Killorn	27	Canada	2023
C	(C) Steven Stamkos	26	Canada	2024
RW	Jonathan Drouin	21	Canada	2017 (RFA)
LW	Ondrej Palat	25	Czech Republic	2017 (RFA)
C	Tyler Johnson	26	USA	2017 (RFA)
RW	Nikita Kucherov	23	Russia	2016
LW	Vladislav Namestnikov	23	Russia	2018 (RFA)
C	Valtteri Filppula	32	Finland	2018
RW	J.T. Brown	26	USA	2018
LW	Cedric Paquette	23	Canada	2018 (RFA)
C	(A) Brian Boyle	31	USA	2017
RW	Erik Condra	30	USA	2018

Defensemen

POS	Name	Age	Nationality	Free Agent Year
D	Victor Hedman	25	Sweden	2025
D	Anton Stralman	30	Sweden	2019
D	Jason Garrison	31	Canada	2018
D	Braydon Coburn	31	Canada	2019
D	Slater Koekoek	22	Canada	2017 (RFA)
D	Andrej Sustr	25	Czech Republic	2017 (RFA)

Goalies

POS	Name	Age	Nationality	Free Agent Year
G	Ben Bishop	29	USA	2017
G	Andrei Vasilevskiy	22	Russia	2020 (RFA)

Extra Skaters

POS	Name	Age	Nationality	Free Agent Year
LW	Joel Vermin	24	Switzerland	2017 (RFA)
LW	Tye McGinn	26	Canada	2017
D	James Wisniewski	32	USA	PTO

Inactive Players

POS	Name	Age	Nationality	Free Agent Year
RW	(A) Ryan Callahan	31	USA	2020

Season Outlook

• The Lightning got all the way to the Eastern Conference Finals last season before losing to the Penguins in six games.  That was the second consecutive year of getting at least that far in the playoffs.  Tampa was one of the best teams in the league last season, and their stats reflect that status.  They were in the upper-half of the league in all areas except powerplay percentage, where they were really bad.

CAT.	Goals For	Goals Against	PP %	PK %	PDO	Corsi For	Corsi Against	Corsi For %	oZS%	dZS%
Stat	227	201	15.77	84.05	100.8	4533	4345	51.1	53.3	46.7
Lightning Rank	13th	5th	29th	7th	6th	16th	7th	10th	4th	4th

PDO= Even Strength Shooting Percentage + Even Strength Save Percentage

Corsi For= Shots + Blocks + Misses while in possession of puck

Crosi Against= Shots + Blocks + Misses while not in possession of puck

Corsi For %= Corsi For/(Corsi For+Corsi Against) -> Above 50% means that team controls play

oZS% = Offensive Zone Start Percentage

dZS% = Defensive Zone Start Percentage

• This offseason, nearly all of the team's moves involved players already on their roster.  GM Steve Yzerman proved that he is one of the game's best by extending and re-signing a number of their young players.  He extended forwards J.T. Brown, Cedric Paquette, and Vladislav Namestnikov to short, two-year deals.  He then extended franchise defenseman Victor Hedman to an eight-year deal, forward Alex Killorn seven years, and goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy three years.  Perhaps the most impressive move of the offseason was that Yzerman re-signed unrestricted free agent and captain, Steven Stamkos to an eight-year deal at an average value of $8.5 million per season.  This came after months of discussion and predictions about where Stamkos would sign.  A lot of people thought he would end up in Toronto, which is his hometown team, and where he commanded $14.5 million annually to be signed by the Maple Leafs.  Whether they were unwilling to meet this demand, or Stamkos wanted the eighth year that only Tampa could give him, or he wanted the more beneficial tax situation in Florida, or simply the fact that he just believed that Tampa could give him the best chance to win a Cup, he ended up back in Tampa.  Both Stamkos and Hedman signed well below market value, choosing to buy into what they're doing in Tampa, and also allow the Lightning to have enough cap space to re-sign as many of their young players as possible.  Yzerman still has a lot of work in front of him, as he needs to sign winger Nikita Kucherov to a deal for this season yet; a contract that will probably be between $4.5-6 million annually.  That contract will significantly eat into the Lightning's cap space for the season and they still need to determine whether they will attempt to extend Tyler Johnson and/or Ondre Palat, both key players to their system.  This coming season will be interesting for the Lightning as they continue to navigate their financial situation and they will have to make a determination on whether or not they trade Ben Bishop.  Bishop's contract expires after this season, and it would be smartest for them to attempt to trade him by the trade deadline rather than just letting him walk at the end of the season or losing him in the expansion draft next summer.  Although Bishop is an excellent goalie, he is not needed in Tampa, who just extended goalie-in-waiting Andrei Vasilevskiy to a new three-year contract.  No matter what takes place with their player personnel, the Lightning will be a favorite to come out of the East in the playoffs, both this year (and they may not have a better opportunity than this season) and for years to come. 

Breakout Candidate:

• RW J.T. Brown - Brown dressed for 78 games last season, his highest in his brief career thus far, and he accumulated 22 points in the process.  Brown is projected to skate on the Lightning's third line, a team that doesn't really have a drop-off in production down the lines.  He should be skating on a line with Valtteri Filppula and Vladislav Namestnikov, both of whom are skilled playmakers.
• RW Jonathan Drouin - Drouin, as most hockey fans will recall, was at the center of a struggle with the Lightning last year and he ended up being sent down to the AHL and refused to report for quite awhile.  He was eventually recalled late in the season and for the playoffs, and played excellently and looks to be a core member of the Lightning for their future.  He will probably skate on the Lightning's first line with Steven Stamkos and could very easily see the highest production of his career.

Regression Candidate:

• RW Ryan Callahan - Callahan will turn 32 at the end of this season and will be out until November sometime with a torn labrum.  He used to be a mid-20's goal scorer each year but took a big step back last year, only netting 10 goals in 73 games.  His style of play throughout his career has taken a big toll on his body, as he is a heavy forechecker who is never afraid to go to the front of the net.  I think he will struggle to play a full season ever again in his career and probably won't get back to mid-20's goal scoring levels.

Bounceback Candidate:

• Besides Ryan Callahan it seems as though there weren't any players that had off seasons last year.  I don't think Callahan will bounce back from his down year so there aren't any real bouneback candidates in my mind.

*All statistics and information come from: rosterresource.com, thehockeywriters.com, hockeydb.com, hockey-reference.com, and generalfanager.com