Friday, September 30, 2016

NHL Preview - Dallas Stars

Dallas Stars

2015-16 season: 50-23-9, 109 points
Lost in Western Conference semifinals
Head Coach: Lindy Ruff (2013)
1st Place Central Division
General Manager: Jim Nill (2013)
1st  Place Western Conference
AHL Affiliate: Texas Stars
ECHL Affiliate: Idaho Steelheads
Cap Space: $4,584,167

News

  • Traded D Alex Goligoski's rights to Arizona for a 2016 5th Round draft pick
  • Traded G Jack Campbell to Los Angeles for D Nick Ebert

Players Lost in the Offseason

POS.
Player
New Team
Contract
LW
Travis Moen
Free Agent

RW
Valeri Nichushkin
CSKA Moscow (KHL)

RW
Colton Sceviour
Florida Panthers
2 years, $1,900,000
C
Vernon Fiddler
New Jersey Devils
1 year $1,250,000
D
Kris Russell
Free Agent

D
Jason Demers
Florida Panthers
5 years, $22,500,000

Incoming Free Agents

POS.
Player
Old Team
Contract
LW
Jiri Hudler
Florida Panthers
1 year, $2,000,000
LW
Adam Cracknell
Edmonton Oilers
1 year, $600,000
D
Dan Humhuis
Vancouver Canucks
2 years, $7,500,000

2016 Draft Picks

RD
Pick No.
POS.
Name
Junior/College/Club Team
1
25
LW
Riley Tufte
Fargo Force (USHL)
3
90
C
Fredrik Karlstrom
AIK (SWE-Jr)
4
116
C
Rhett Garner
North Dakota Fighting Hawks (NCHC)
5
128
G
Colton Point
Carleton Place Canadians (CCHL)
5
146
RW
Nicholas Caamano
Flint Firebirds (OHL)
6
176
D
Jakob Stenqvist
MODO-Jr (SWE-Jr)

Top Three Prospects

POS
Name
Draft Info
Current Team
G
Philipe Desrosiers
2014 2nd RD (54)
AHL/ECHL
C
Devin Shore
2012 2nd RD (61)
AHL/ECHL
RW
Brett Ritchie
2011 2nd RD (44)
NHL

Projected Lineup

Forwards
POS
Name
Age
Nationality
Free Agent Year
LW
(C) Jamie Benn
27
Canada
2025
C
Tyler Seguin
24
Canada
2019
RW
Patrick Sharp
32
Canada
2017
LW
Jiri Hudler
32
Czech Republic
2017
C
Jason Spezza
33
Canada
2019
RW
Ales Hemsky
33
Czech Republic
2017
LW
Antoine Roussel
26
France
2017
C
Mattias Janmark
23
Sweden
2017 (RFA)
RW
Patrick Eaves
32
Canada
2017
LW
Curtis McKenzie
25
Canada
2017 (RFA)
C
Radek Faksa
22
Czech Republic
2017 (RFA)
RW
Brett Ritchie
23
Canada
2017 (RFA)
Defensemen
POS
Name
Age
Nationality
Free Agent Year
D
Dan Hamhuis
33
Canada
2018
D
John Klingberg
24
Sweden
2022
D
Johnny Oduya
35
Sweden
2017
D
Stephen Johns
24
USA
2018 (RFA)
D
Esa Lindell
22
Finland
2017 (RFA)
D
Jordie Benn
29
Canada
2019
Goalies
POS
Name
Age
Nationality
Free Agent Year
G
Kari Lehtenonen
32
Finland
2018
G
Antti Niemi
33
Finland
2018
Extra Skaters
POS
Name
Age
Nationality
Free Agent Year
LW
Adam Cracknell
31
Canada
2017
D
Jamie Oleksiak
23
Canada
2017 (RFA)
D
Patrik Nemeth
24
Sweden
2017 (RFA)
Inactive Players
POS
Name
Age
Nationality
Free Agent Year
C
Cody Eakin
25
Canada
2020
LW
Jason Dickinson
21
Canada
2018 (RFA)





















Season Outlook


  • The Dallas Stars were, and probably are, the most fun team in the league to watch, in my opinion.  It is like the 1990's NHL has been re-created in Dallas.  They are an up-tempo, offense-first team that certainly won't get drawn into a trap game.  They won the Central Division last year on their way to also finishing first in the conference.  They are an extremely top-heavy offensive team that is led by Jamie Benn, Tyler Seguin, Patrick Sharp, and Jason Spezza. There is definitely a drop-off on the third and fourth lines, though, and the Stars rely a great deal on the first two lines for their offense.  Their defense is probably average for the league and is good enough to make the playoffs and win once they are in.  Defenseman John Klingberg proved to be a solid NHLer once again in his second season in the league, leading their defensive unit and playing point on their powerplay.  This powerplay was lethal, succeeding at over a 22% clip, ranking fourth in the league last season.  They still were above average at killing penalties as well, ranking tenth in that category.  For the Stars' advanced metrics, as one might presume, they ranked high in the offensive categories, including second in Corsi For, meaning they attempted more shots than all but one other team in the league.  In Corsi Against, however, they were 19th, which is bad, but not as bad as I thought they would have been based on the emphasis they place on offense.  Overall, they ranked fifth in Corsi For Percentage at 52.2 %, so they controlled play over half of the time.  To me, this means that the Stars' issues were mostly in net.  Goaltenders Kari Lehtonen and Antti Niemi were not good; Lehtonen had a 2.76 Goals Against Average (GAA) with a .906 save percentage, and Niemi had a 2.67 GAA with a .905 save percentage.  Last year, the league averages in these categories were 2.51 and .915, respectively.  In the playoffs, Lehtonen and Niemi were even worse, both posting sub-.900 save percentages and and Niemi had a GAA above 3.00.  This is truly bad for a team with playoff aspirations each year, as there were numerous goaltenders on non-playoff teams that posted better numbers than Lehtonen and Niemi.  Unless either one of Dallas' two goaltenders steps up an truly becomes a number one goalie like they've been in the past, or the Stars go out and acquire a number one, it's hard to see Dallas getting to the Stanley Cup finals, which is their goal.

CAT.
Goals For
Goals Against
PP %
PK %
PDO
Corsi For
Corsi Against
Corsi For %
oZS%
dZS%
Stat
267
230
22.14
82.26
100.5
5082
4659
52.2
52.3
47.7
Stars’ Rank
1st
21st
4th
10th
10th
2nd
19th
5th
6th
6th
PDO= Even Strength Shooting Percentage + Even Strength Save Percentage
Corsi For= Shots + Blocks + Misses while in possession of puck
Crosi Against= Shots + Blocks + Misses while not in possession of puck
Corsi For %= Corsi For/(Corsi For+Corsi Against) -> Above 50% means that team controls play
oZS% = Offensive Zone Start Percentage
dZS% = Defensive Zone Start Percentage
  • During the offseason, the Stars lost Kris Russel, Jason Demers, and Alex Goligoski, all defensemen.  They brought in Dan Hamuis from Vancouver, which should help alleviate the loss of at least one of the defensemen that signed elsewhere.  Their offense will be back almost entirely, except for Valeri Nichushkin, who left for the KHL, and will be a big loss.  They brought in Jiri Huddler to replace Nichushkin and Huddler has big goal-scoring abilities.  Their issue will continue to be in net with Kari Lehtonen and Antti Niemi splitting time and neither being very good.  I have heard that Dallas could be a possible match for Henrik Lundqvist if the Rangers were to move him, and I think that if the Stars have the opportunity to make this happen, they should go all in on it.  Their current roster construction is temporary, as Patrick Sharp, Jiri Huddler, and Ales Hemsky all have contracts that expire after this season, and Dallas' roster could look very different a year from now.  They need to get everything they can out of the talent on this roster and extend their window for winning a championship as long as possible. For this season, I think they will make the playoffs again and be a threat to represent the Western Conference in the Stanley Cup Finals.

Breakout Candidate:

  • D Esa Lindell - I went back-and-forth between Lindell and Brett Ritchie for this, but went with Lindell because I like that this is his first real opportunity to play in the NHL.  In the AHL last season, he scored 42 points in 73 games, which is quite a lot for a defenseman.  He also added 4 points in 4 games during the playoffs.  I also like the fact that he is a Finnish defenseman and I've always felt that Finnish players play a polished and disciplined type of game, which plays well in the NHL.  I think he will be successful this season and help Dallas a great deal.

Regression Candidate:

  • G Antti Niemi - Niemi's numbers have continued to get worse each year since the 2012-13 season, the last year he put up really good statistics.  I think this trend will continue this year and that Dallas will be excitedly waiting for his contract to expire after the 2017-18 season.

Bounceback Candidate:

  • F Patrick Sharp - Sharp managed to still score 20 goals in a season that I am considering a letdown year for the talented winger.  Sharp has scored over 30 goals on four occasions and still has the talent to do so again, especially when skating on a line with Jamie Benn and Tyler Seguin.  I think that Sharp will get back to between 25-30 goals this season.
*All statistics and information come from: rosterresource.com, thehockeywriters.com, hockeydb.com, hockey-reference.com, and generalfanager.com

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