NFL Divisional Picks/Playoff Predictions

I think one of the hardest things to do in writing sports is projecting seasons for the various sports' leagues and how the playoffs will shake out.  Perhaps that is why talking and thinking about sports is such a crapshoot and it requires a person to be truly open with his/her audience and to also be self-deprecating.  This football season will be the first time that I've ever written down my picks and would potentially actually have people to hold me accountable when I get a team wrong, which I am guaranteeing that I do.  I found attempting to determine teams' records to be difficult because when you look at all of the rosters there are really only a few truly bad teams in the NFL anymore.  Injuries make writing predictions tough, as well, because since the day I first began writing my NFL previews, I have had to go back and revise records due to Teddy Bridgewater being hurt, an injury that I believe will severely hinder the Vikings' chances this season.  I also believe that I tend to be more optimistic for teams throughout the league than their actual records will end up showing.  With that being said, I will go division-by-division and project the standings and then at the end of the post I will write my playoff brackets and make a Super Bowl pick.

NFC

NFC East
Washington	10-6
Dallas	8-8
New York Giants	6-10
Philadelphia	4-12

• While Dallas should be better than last year, it doesn't seem like enough to keep pace with Washington and their upgraded defense.  When you factor in the Tony Romo injury and the fact that the Cowboys will have to turn rookie QB Dak Prescott to lead them, there could be a learning curve for the offense.  Their running game will still be good, however, but their defense is a work in progress at best and could struggle mightily against opposing offenses. The Eagles and Giants don't really seem close to me.  The Eagles are a dumpster fire after undoing many of the moves implemented by former head coach Chip Kelly and will have to rely on the ever-brittle Sam Bradford at quarterback.  The Giants just seem old to me with Eli Manning having a good season last year, but very little weapons around him apart from Odell Beckham Jr.  Washington upgraded one of its weak spots by signing All-Pro corner Josh Norman to anchor their secondary;  and with another full season with Kirk Cousins behind center, the 'skins should be poised for their second consecutive division title.

NFC South
Carolina	15-1
Atlanta	7-9
New Orleans	7-9
Tampa Bay	5-11

• The NFC South for the of the promise the division showed just a few seasons ago now seems dreadful outside of Carolina.  Atlanta took a big step back last season, despite solid years from QB Matt Ryan and WR Julio Jones and New Orleans seems to be struggling to find an identity anymore.  Drew Brees is another season closer to retirement and with that on the horizon it may be time for the front office to look for a potential rebuild and moving on from Sean Payton. Tampa Bay is in the middle of a rebuild and looks to have the core of a solid team starting, but I just don't see enough skilled players on their roster to be super competitive this season.  That leaves Carolina, the defending NFC champion.  They return most of their team apart from Josh Norman, who will have to prove he is worth the contract Washington gave him, and safety Charles Tillman who retired.  Despite these losses on defense, that side of the ball should still be elite.  On offense, the Panthers will get wide receiver Kelvin Benjamin and tight end Greg Olsen back to start the season and if both can stay healthy, the offense will be electric with reigning MVP Cam Newton leading the way.  I think there is really only one way this division goes and that's with Carolina winning it by a large number of games.  Do I really think that they will flirt with perfection? I'm not sure, but they will be good regardless.

NFC North
Green Bay	14-2
Detroit	7-9
Minnesota	5-11
Chicago	5-11

• Last season Green Bay lost its grip on the NFC North for the first time since 2010 and Minnesota stepped into the void.  This year I think the Packers will find themselves on top of the division once again.  They get WR Jordy Nelson (who missed all of 2015) back from injury and who will provide an immediate spark to their offense.  A healthy and fit Eddie Lacy and running back will also help and having Aaron Rodgers under center is always a recipe for success.  Initially I thought the division would be contested between Green Bay and Minnesota and picked the Vikings to earn one of the Wild Card spots, but the Bridgewater injury changed that.  Instead, I think Detroit will finish second in the division with Minnesota and Chicago competing for third place.  Green Bay should win the division easily.

NFC West
Arizona	14-2
Seattle	12-4
Los Angeles	5-11
San Francisco	0-16

• Last year, Arizona was probably the best team in the NFC and should have played for the Super Bowl instead of Carolina.  But QB Carsen Palmer chose the wrong time to play his worst game of the season and the Cardinals were destroyed by Carolina in the NFC Championship game. This year the Cardinals return basically the entire team and has the potential to once again be a Super Bowl contender.  Acquiring LB Chandler Jones will help strengthen their defense, a unit that was stellar already.  They also have solid weapons for Palmer to throw to and depth at running back between David and Chris Johnson and Andre Ellington.  I figure Seattle will finish second in the division and they are the only other competitive team in the division apart from Arizona.  Russell Wilson proved last season that this is his team and he played at an elite level.  Losing running back Marshawn Lynch probably won't hurt them as much as it would other teams as they played without him for much of the season last year.  Hopefully the Seahawks can find a way to utilize the talent they have, including WR Doug Baldwin, who emerged as Wilson's favorite target last year, and TE Jimmy Graham who was nearly unstoppable when he played for New Orleans.  On defense, they're still the Legion of Boom and that's all that needs to be said about them.  It will be interesting how long they are able to continue their success as players seek bigger contracts and move on from Seattle.  Los Angeles and San Francisco don't appear to be very competitive this season and I actually think San Francisco has a chance to not win a game this year, largely because they have a mess at quarterback with very little weapons around him.

AFC

AFC East
New England	14-2
Miami	8-8
New York Jets	8-8
Buffalo	6-10

• What more can you say about the AFC East than Brady and Belichick?  Since Brady arrived on the scene in 2001, the Patriots have won the division all but two seasons, finishing second both years.  As long as both are present, it's pretty easy to pence them in as division champs each year.  Even with Brady serving a four game suspension at the beginning of the year, the Patriots' upgraded defense should help to steady the course greatly.  The rest of the division seems to continue to play catch up with New England.  The Jets have one of the worst quarterback situations in the NFL and virtually no cap space to do anything with for the next few seasons.  The Dolphins should be good but can never seem to get above the .500 threshold and are always a giant letdown compared to expectations.  And the Bills are the Bills.  Another sub .500 season and the Ryan Brothers may be unemployed once again.

AFC South
Houston	10-6
Indianapolis	8-8
Jacksonville	8-8
Tennessee	1-15

• In another two years the AFC South may be the best division in football.  All four teams appear to have their franchise quarterbacks and it appears that the division is the only one that can make such a claim.  Last year the Colts took a step back with Andrew Luck suffering an injury. Houston jumped up and won the division and strengthened its team during the offseason. Jacksonville could be a serious darkhorse contender to win the division, with solid defensive play and a high-scoring offense.  The Titans are still in their rebuilding process and will probably compete for the first overall pick in next year's draft.  It's hard to see any of the teams in the division winning more than 9 or 10 games, simply because they will all beat up on each other.  Regardless, I could see any of Houston, Indianapolis, or Jacksonville winning the division, but I am picking Houston.

AFC North
Cincinnati	14-2
Pittsburgh	13-3
Baltimore	3-13
Cleveland	0-16

• I think there are really only two competitive teams in the division this year: Cincinnati and Pittsburgh.  I picked Cincinnati to win largely because of Le'veon Bell's suspension to start the season.  It will be interesting to see if the Bengals' offense last year was a product of former offensive coordinator Hue Jackson or the personnel on the field.  It will also be interesting to see how productive the offense will be without wide receivers Mohamed Sanu and Marvin Jones, both of whom moved via free agency.  Now all of the attention will be on A.J. Green and QB Andy Dalton will have to prove that he is an upper echelon quarterback.  Baltimore and Cleveland both seem distantly behind the other two teams and probably won't factor into the end of the season standings.

AFC West
Kansas City	12-4
San Diego	10-6
Oakland	10-6
Denver	8-8

• The AFC West is probably the best division in football this season.  It's hard to imagine a scenario where the reigning Super Bowl winner may finish last in its division, yet that's a real possibility this year for Denver.  The Broncos lost both of their starting QBs this offseason and will turn to second-year Trevor Siemian to lead the offense and has never thrown a pass in the NFL before.  I think the Chiefs will win this division, simply by becoming healthy at running back and in the linebacking corps.  I feel both the Raiders and Chargers will be competitive and that the Chargers will rebound from last year while Oakland takes another step forward in its rebuild.

NFC Playoff Seeding

1. Carolina
2. Arizona
3. Green Bay
4. Washington
5. Seattle
6. Dallas

AFC Playoff Seeding

1. New England
2. Cincinnati
3. Kansas City
4. Houston
5. Pittsburgh
6. Oakland/San Diego (Can't determine who will get in with tiebreaker)

NFC Playoff Picture

Wild Card Round

• (3) Green Bay vs. (6) Dallas - Green Bay
• (4) Washington vs. (5) Seattle - Seattle

Divisional Round

• (1) Carolina vs. (5) Seattle - Seattle
• (2) Arizona vs. (3) Green Bay - Arizona

Championship Round

• (2) Arizona vs. (3) Seattle - Arizona

AFC Playoff Picture

Wild Card Round

• (3) Kansas City vs. (6) Oakland/San Diego - Kansas City
• (4) Houston vs. (5) Pittsburgh - Pittsburgh

Divisional Round

• (1) New England vs. (5) Pittsburgh - Pittsburgh
• (2) Cincinnati vs. (3) Kansas City - Kansas City

Championship Round

• (3) Kansas City vs. (5) Pittsburgh - Pittsburgh

Super Bowl

• NFC Champion - Arizona Cardinals vs. AFC Champion - Pittsburgh Steelers at NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas - Arizona