Friday, February 17, 2017

NHL Trade Deadline Preview

With the NHL Trade Deadline coming very quickly (March 1st at 3:00 pm EST) and just a little over two weeks away, it is time to do a preview for the deadline, as well as the remainder of the regular season.  This season's trade deadline will be one of the more important deadlines in recent seasons in large part due to the looming expansion draft that will take place this summer.  That means that there will be players traded only so that teams can recoup some value instead of losing them for nothing. Normally at the deadline, nearly all trades involve rental players but this year there could be numerous players moved with term left on their contracts.

For my preview I am going to go through all of the teams, previewing the buyers first, and then the sellers.  I'm also going to only discuss trades that I think could take place at the deadline and not over the summer.  Any expansion draft trades that don't occur at the deadline will take place after the season is over.  I'm not trying to turn this post into a season recap for teams so I will do everything possible to avoid that.

Buyers

Washington Capitals

  • The Capitals have been one of the best teams in the league this season and finally have a true, well-rounded team that is built to win a Stanley Cup.  They have scored the second most goals while giving up the fewest goals in the league.  They need to go all-in this year because it could be the last season where they are a team with a great balance of high-end, elite offensive talent while also having lots of depth at forward.  This offseason, forwards Evgeni Kuznetsov and Andre Burakovsky will get very expensive as both players' contracts expire.  In addition, both T.J. Oshie and Justin Williams will be free agents so next year's roster could look much different. 
  • Needs: Could definitely use another puck moving defensemen; all teams can generally use more scoring depth
  • Fits: Ultimate target would be St. Louis' defenseman Kevin Shattenkirk, who would be a great fit but also very expensive.  Other defensemen that would fit include Arizona's Michael Stone, Dallas' Johnny Oduya, and Buffalo's Dmitry Kulikov.  I think that they could also be in on forwards Martin Hanzal, Thomas Vanek, Radim Vrbata, Shane Doan, Jarome Iginla, Patrik Berglund, Brian Boyle, Drew Stafford, and P.A. Parenteau.

Columbus Blue Jackets

  • I have them listed as a buyer, but only slightly.  They are a really young team that wasn't expected to be a playoff team this year, or even really be competitive for that matter.  For that reason, they should add talent at the deadline but only those players that won't cost more than a 2nd round pick or upper level prospects.  That being said, if they find themselves interested in Matt Duchene, Gabriel Landeskog, or Kevin Shattenkirk, they could put together a package to land one of them, most likely centered around 2016 third overall pick, Pierre-Luc Dubois.
  • Needs:  They need depth in all three areas of the ice, especially at forward since the team has struggled to score goals and relies on an excellent powerplay.  Their defense is really young and could benefit from a veteran with playoff experience, and their backup goalie position has been a dumpster fire all year.  Ultimately, anyone they get should be a strong puck controller as their corsi for percentage is below 50.
  • Fits: Kevin Shattenkirk, Matt Duchene, Gabriel Landeskog, and James van Riemsdyk would all be dream trade targets.  Defensemen Brendan Smith, Johnny Oduya, Cody Franson, and Josh Gorges would all be quality fits.  Forwards Radim Vrbata, Patrik Berglund, Brian Boyle, P.A. Parenteau, and Valtteri Filppula would all be good fits.  

Pittsburgh Penguins

  • The Penguins are as well-rounded and deep of a team as there is in the league right now.  They have a really good chance to repeat as Stanley Cup champions as a result of this.  The biggest question for them will be whether or not they decide to move goalie Marc-Andre Fleury at the deadline or keep him until the summer and after the playoff run.  I think this would be the smartest move for the front office.  That being said, if another team offers Pittsburgh an extremely valuable package that would include a 1st round pick, a prospect or NHL-ready defenseman, and a backup goalie, then they would have to consider moving Fleury during the season.
  • Needs: The Penguins are a team that needs to keep as many of their high draft picks as possible in order to start replacing aging veterans.  Because of that, I think any trades they make will be purely playoff rental players that only cost a low draft pick or low end prospect.  They could really use some depth at forward, especially with the injuries they have endured so far this season as well as a third pairing defenseman to rotate through the lineup down the stretch or to replace an injured player.
  • Fits: They have been linked to Colorado's Landeskog and would probably have to move defenseman Olli Maatta to make the trade work.  That would be a worthwhile trade as Maatta hasn't played that well recently and the team would benefit from a power forward like Landeskog.  Other rental fits include forwards Martin Hanzal, Thomas Vanek, Radim Vrbata, Shane Doan, Patrik Berglund, Jarome Iginla, Brian Boyle, James van Riemsdyk (fits into a similar trade like Landeskog), P.A. Parenteau, and Drew Stafford.  Attractive defensemen would be Brendan Smith, Johnny Oduya, and Cody Franson.

New York Rangers

  • I don't think that the Rangers will do what they should and start retooling their aging roster, but instead they will add players, giving up future potential.  If they did decide to sell off some of their veterans, they would get quite a bit back considering the talent they could part with.  With their current roster they are probably just barely a playoff team and aren't talented enough to make a deep run.  Even if they go all-in at the deadline, I don't think that there is enough available to make then a Cup favorite.  
  • Needs: If they decide to add to this roster, they desperately need another center to help Derek Stepan and just need more playmakers in general.  They have enough goalscorers but not enough talented puck movers to get them the puck.  I also think that acquiring a solid puck-moving defenseman could be vital.
  • Fits: I don't know if they have enough pieces to make the trade work, but Kevin Shattenkirk would help the Rangers immensely down the stretch and in the playoffs.  I'm also not certain that they will have the cap space available next season to re-sign him.  Other defensemen that could help them this season are Dmitry Kulikov, Cody Franson, and Josh Gorges and attainable forwards include Thomas Vanek, Radim Vrbata, Patrik Berglund, Jarome Iginla, Brian Boyle, and P.A. Parenteau.

Montreal Canadiens

  • A full season of a healthy Carey Price has shown how good this Canadiens team can actually be.  They have become one of the elite teams in the league with a balanced offensive attack, solid defense, and elite goaltending.  Their offseason acquisition of Shea Weber has been brilliant in the short-term, but will still probably be regrettable in the long-term.
  • Needs: They need a first or second line center to slot in behind Alex Galchenyuk or to replace him when he is injured.  They also need another goalscorer to complement Alexander Radulov and to help provide more scoring.
  • Fits: Forwards Martin Hanzal, Radim Vrbata, Patrik Berglund, Jarome Iginla, Patrick Eaves, Alexandre Burrows, Patrick Sharp, Brian Boyle, Drew Stafford, and Brian Gionta

Ottawa Senators

  • The Senators are another team like Columbus that should do everything they can to add depth to their roster without taking away from the team's future.  They are a surprising team this season that didn't have high outside expectations but are good enough to make the playoffs.  As of February 12, they had an even goal differential, the product of really good goaltending.
  • Needs: They need more scoring to help the team's solid defense and goaltending.  They have already worked to fix this by trading for winger Tommy Wingels from San Jose.
  • Fits: Forwards Martin Hanzal, Thomas Vanek,RadimVrbata, Patrik Berglund, Patrick Eaves, Brian Boyle, Brian Gionta, and Drew Stafford.  I think that they would also be a good fit with Colorado for either Matt Duchene or Gabriel Landeskog.  I could also see them trying to acquire Tampa Bay's Valtteri Filppula to help the Lightning's cap situation.

Boston Bruins

  • The Bruins roster isn't great but the front office and ownership have aspirations of making the playoffs and a run at another Stanley Cup.  The roster is also pretty old so management will want to take advantage of the years they have left with this current core.  Head coach Claude Julien was fired recently despite the team being the best puck possession team in the league, proving that his system was working.
  • Needs: They need better goaltending behind Tuukka Rask, better shooters (team is last in the league in shooting percentage), and just better all-around luck.
  • Fits: Forwards Martin Hanzal, Thomas Vanek, Patrik Berglund, Brian Boyle, and P.A. Parenteau.  They're another team with young defensemen that they could move to Colorado for Duchene or Landeskog.  They could also be interested in defensemen Kevin Shattenkirk and Mark Streit.  They need a better goaltender to back up Rask but there may not be many, if any, available.  I think that Philly could offer one of either Steve Mason or Michal Neuvirth.\

Toronto Maple Leafs

  • With as quickly as Toronto has turned their franchise direction around under Brendan Shanahan and Mike Babcock, fans deserve to see the Maple Leafs in the playoffs again.  I don't think that they will be willing to give up anything more than a second round pick for a player unless that player has term left on his contract.  There have been talks that perhaps the Maple Leafs will part with one or more of their "veteran" players such as Tyler Bozak, Nazem Kadri, or James van Riemsdyk, but I think it's too early for this.
  • Needs: I think that they could use some cheap defensive help to take some strain off of their younger defensemen.  Acquiring a player with playoff experience would be a plus.
  • Fits: Mark Streit, Ron Hainsey, Thomas Hickey, and Michael Del Zotto

Florida Panters

  • Although the Panthers have struggled to play well for much of the season, they have been playing much better of late.  They have also gotten key players back from injury and their roster is designed to be competitive right now.
  • Needs: They need a lot of help in the scoring department and adding depth at centre would be a good diea.
  • Targets: Fowards P.A. Parenteau, Jarome Iginla Martin Hanzal, Radim Vrbata, Thomas Vanek, Patrik Berglund, Patrick Eaves, and Drew Stafford

Minnesota Wild

  • Minnesota has played extremely well in their first year under head coach Bruce Boudreau. They are on their way to winning the Central Division and have gotten really solid play from all three parts of the ice.  Any moves that the Wild make at the deadline will have to be on the cheaper end because they don't have a lot of money to spend plus they will have to make moves to defend against the expansion draft.
  • Needs: If they have any needs it would be a high level goalscorer, since they currently don't have any 20 goalscorers.  They are an extremely balanced team though with five players with at least 40 points.
  • Targets: I think that they are a team that could make a trade for Landeskog or Duchene happen. They have numerous young defensemen and need to trade one away before the offseason so they don't lose anyone of value in the expansion draft.  Other targets could be Thomas Vanek, P.A. Parenteau, Jarome Iginla, Radim Vrbata, Martin Hanzal, Shane Doan, and Drew Stafford.  I also think that they could go after Toronto's James van Riemsdyk by offering them a similar package that they would to Colorado.

Chicago Blackhawks

  • Chicago is in a place now where they have to add depth players at every deadline because they have so much money tied up in their core players and can't afford to sign free agents to lock-term deals in the offseason.
  • Needs: They need cheap help on defense where their current group is young on the backend and not very good.  They also need help on offense, the area that the team has had to make the most cuts due to the salary cap.  
  • Targets: Forwards Thomas Vanek, Radim Vrbata, Martin Hanzal, Shane Doan, Brian Boyle, and P.A. Parenteau; defensemen Brendan Smith, Johnny Oduya, Cody Franson, Josh Gorges, Fedor Tyutin, and Mark Streit.

Nashville Predators

  • The Predators have rebounded incrediably well from the rough start they had at the beginning of the season.  Their defense has started to gel together with the addition of P.K. Subban and their forwards group has been consistent for the most part.  The team is at the place now where if they get solid goaltending from Pekka Rinne, they should have a great chance at winning every game.  They are looking like a strong Cup contender once again.
  • Needs: They really need help at centre.  Acquiring Ryan Johansen was a great move last season and he is the team's leading scorer, but the Predators still need more depth down the middle behind him.  They also need just general scoring help as they have just one player with 40 or more points and no 20 goalscorers. 
  • Targets: The Predators are another team that could be in the running for Matt Duchene. Trading for him would give Nashville an incredible depth at centre and also give them an elite playmaker.  They have the pieces to make this trade happen considering their depth on defense, which would also help them in the expansion draft.  Other targets include Martin Hanzal, Brian Boyle, and Valtteri Filppula.

San Jose Sharks

  • The Sharks are every bit as good of a team as they were last year when they went to the Stanley Cup Finals.  They are leading the division and need to go all-in this season while they still have the core they do.  Joe Thornton and Patrick Marleau are both free agents this offseason and it looks like only one of the two will return next season.  
  • Needs: The only area where the Sharks are struggling this season is scoring goals and producing points, with only two players above the 40-point threshold.  They don't have any cap space so any team they trade with will have to absorb a good portion of the player's contract.
  • Targets: Jarome Iginla, Thomas Vanek, Radim Vrbata, Shane Doan, Brian Boyle, Drew Stafford, and P.A. Parenteau

Anaheim Ducks

  • Anaheim is another team whose Stanley Cup window is starting to lose with members of its core aging in Ryan Getzlaf and Corey Perry.  They have taken a step back since firing Bruce Boudreau and replacing him with Randy Carlyle.  They have struggled with puck possession and their offense isn't soring enough goals.  However, they don't have any cap space right now if they don't use their LTIR relief.
  • Needs: They need forwards who are strong puck possessors and who can drive play.  They could be a team in on one of Duchene, Landeskog, or JVR, giving up one of their young defensemen in return, something they will have to do regardless in order to not lose someone of value in the expansion draft.
  • Targets: Forwards Brian Boyle, Patrik Berglund, Patrick Eaves, and P.A. Parenteau

Edmonton Oilers

  • This team has finally arrived with the emergence of Connor McDavid and the rest of the young players.  The Oilers are quite good, still very young, and have the ability to make a playoff run this season.  The front office needs to be carefull to not sell off pieces of the future for a chance to make a deep playoff run.  Despite that, I do think that they owe it to their fans to acquire a playoff rental or two to round out their roster.
  • Needs: They still need help on defense, especially on the back end, they need a better backup goaltender, and they need center help after McDavid and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins.
  • Targets: Ideally, I'd really like them to acquire defenseman Kevin Shattenkirk.  Shattenkirk is one of the best defensemen in the league and would probably be able to be acquired for not a lot considering he is a free agent this offseason.  The Oilers could then sign him to an eight or nine year deal, locking him down through McDavid's prime years and the team would have an excellent chance at winning at least one Stanley Cup in the near future.  If they choose not to go that route, other defensemen who would fit include Mark Streit, Michael Del Zotto, Ron Hainsey, and possibly Thomas Hickey.

Los Angeles Kings

  • The Kings haven't been a very good team this year and the roster isn't extremely talented. However, head coach Darryl Sutter is as good at getting much out of little as their is in sports. Despite not having an overly talented roster, the Kings have still managed to be one of the best puck possession teams in the league.  The Kings are currently out of playoff position but will be getting goaltender Jonathan Quick back which should help boost their play.  Regardless of their lackluster play so far this season, I think that they need to continue going all-in every season at the deadline because of the state of the team's core.  Their roster is older and probably doesn't have the time to go through a rebuilding or retooling phase.
  • Needs: The Kings are not scoring near-enough goals this season and have been playing a defensive game all seasson long.  Getting Quick back should be a big boost to their play and hopefully Anze Kopitar can turn his play around.
  • Targets: Forwards Martin Hanzal, Radim Vrbata, Thomas Vanek, Radim Vrbata, Shane Doan, Patrik Berglund, Jarome Iginla, Brian Boyle, and P.A. Parenteau

Calgary Flames

  • Their season started off so badly but the team has turned its play around and has become a borderline playoff team.  The Flames are a young and talented team that should be on the verge of making the playoffs every year going forward.  Their goaltending has held the team back from taking that step in past seasons and now that Brian Elliott is playing better, the Flames can make the playoffs a reality.
  • Needs: Could use help on the defense after the first two pairings.  Any players they try and acquire will have to be playoff rentals for salary cap reasons.
  • Targets: It would be really nice to see them re-acquire Jarome Iginla just for nostalgia reasons. More realistic targets include defensemen Brendan Smith, Johnny Oduya, Dmitry Kulikov, Cody Franson, Josh Gorges, Fedor Tyutin, and Mark Streit.

Sellers

Philadelphia Flyers

  • Flyers had aspirations of making the playoffs this season but that doesn't look like reality at this point.  Their goaltending has been sluggish and has impacted all other facets of their game. Luckily for them, nearly every member of the team's core are in their 20s and they still have a solid farm system around which to build.
  • Tradeable Assets: Defensemen Mark Streit, Nick Schultz, and Michael Del Zotto (if they choose to not re-sign him this offseason) and both of their goaltenders have expiring contracts. If they know which goalie they want to build around for the future, they could deal the other. All of these players would bring quite a bit back if dealt.

New York Islanders

  • This season has been a train wreck for them, which seemed to be destiny considering the roster moves they made during the offseason.  Letting Franz Nielsen and Kyle Okposo walk and signing Jason Chimera and Andrew Ladd to replace them were horrible mistakes.  Now they are terrible, have a lot of money tied up in non-elite talent, and don't even have attractive players on expiring contracts to put on the trade block.
  • Tradeable Assets: Do they consider moving Josh Bailey, Nikolai Kulemin, or Thomas Hickey in order to start getting younger and more talented? They do have Stephen Gionta, Calvin De Haan, and Dennis Seidenberg on expiring contracts that could be attractive to some teams. The Islanders are a team that could be a landing spot for Duchene or Landeskog since they have numerous young, controllable defensemen.

New Jersey Devils

  • The Devils have underperformed by quite a bit this season considering some expected them to be a wild card team this year.  The good news is that their core is locked up long-term, they have a lot of draft picks at this year's draft, and they are a team trending upward.  If they had the pieces needed to land Shattenkirk, there is a strong chance that he would sign with them considering he is from the region and would instantly boost the team's defense for the future.
  • Tradeable Assets: Forward P.A. Parenteau and defenseman Kyle Quincy

Carolina Hurricanes

  • The Hurricanes mindset at this year's deadline has to be as a seller for the short-term but a buyer for young players with long-term contracts.  I think that they are one of the favorites to land Duchene or Landeskog (especially Duchene) considering the young talent they have at the blue line.
  • Tradeable Assets: Forwards Viktor Stalberg and Jay McClement and defenseman Ron Hainsey

Tampa Bay Lightning

  • The Lightning have been the most disappointing team in the league this season.  They are six points behind the second wild card spot as of February 14 and haven't been playing well as of late.  Losing Steven Stamkos early in the season certainly hasn't helped but they have overcome his absence in the past.  This struggle goes beyond his injury.  Goaltender Ben Bishop hasn't played well with his contract question most likely creating mental problems and heir apparent Andrei Vasilevskiy hasn't played much better either.  While they could probably make the playoffs as a wild card team this season, I don't think it would be worth them selling off prospects or draft picks just for that.  Instead, I think they should keep their current roster intact, do everything they can to get their roster prepared for the expansion draft, trade any players with expiring contracts that aren't a part of their future, and work on extending pending free agents.
  • Tradeable Assets: Goaltender Ben Bishop, defensemen Jason Garrison (one more year left) and Braydon Coburn (two more years), and forwards Brian Boyle and Valtteri Filppula (one more year remaining).

Buffalo Sabres

  • The Sabres are still kind of a mess despite taking significant strides last season.  They are still in the middle of their rebuild but should have been better by now.  They are beginning to put together the core of their future with a lot of young, talented players and have several attractive veterans on expiring contracts if they choose to not pursue re-signing them.
  • Tradeable Assets: Forward Brian Gionta and defensemen Cody Franson and Dmitry Kulikov ( I think they will try and re-sign him).

Detroit Red Wings

  • Detroit needs to seriously consider tearing down their roster and going through a significant rebuild.  Unfortunately, they don't have a lot of movable contracts on players that won't be a part of their future.  They are also a franchise that has been trying to keep their playoff streak alive but that looks almost certain to be coming to an end this season.  They are also going to be beginning play in their new arena next season at the same time that their franchise outlook is looking pretty bleak.
  • Tradeable Assets: Forward Thomas Vanek and defenseman Brendan Smith.  They would probably love to move one of their goaltenders but they would need one of the two to step up and that hasn't happened yet. 

St. Louis Blues

  • This season hasn't gone well for the Blues considering the expectations the team had prior to the start of the year.  They are in the middle of a roster turnover where players like David Backes and T.J. Oshie have moved on and have been replaced by Vladimir Tarasenko and Jaden Schwartz.  They have already fired and replaced head coach Ken Hitchcock, the result of horrible goaltending.  Their core is still young and very talented, so taking a year off to step back and reevaluate their roster wouldn't be the worst idea.
  • Tradeable Assets: Defenseman Kevin Shattenkirk seems almost guaranteed to be traded considering he is a free agent this offseason and will fetch quite a bit of value in return.  I think that they would be better served to instead trade Alex Pietrangelo (who has term left) and use that money to re-sign Shattenkirk, who is the better of the two players.  As far as other players with expiring contracts that they could trade, forwards Patrik Berglund (no trade clause) and Scottie Upshall are both attractive players as playoff rentals.

Dallas Stars

  • The Stars are out of the playoff race and haven't played well enough this season to warrant being a playoff team.  Their goaltending is still really bad and the defense playing in front of the goaltenders has been just as bad, if not worse.  They have also dealt with a host of injuries to key positions, including Jason Spezza and Patrick Sharp.
  • Tradeable Assets: Forwards Patrick Sharp, Jiri Hudler, Patrick Eaves, and Lauri Korpikowski and defenseman Johnny Oduya.

Winnipeg Jets

  • At some point this Jets team has to take the next step forward considering the young talent that is throughout its roster.  They have quality players both at forward and defense but have struggled in net.  They are out of the race at this point and getting back into contention will be very difficult.
  • Tradeable Asset: Forward Drew Stafford

Colorado Avalanche

  • Colorado has arguably been the worst team in the league this season and its roster is in a limbo state.  They have a lot of high end talent in the forward group, but lack skill on the back end of the defense and haven't received good goaltending.
  • Tradeable Assets: Forwards Jarome Iginla and John Mitchell; defensemen Fedor Tyutin and Patrick Wiercioch.  They have also made it known that Matt Duchene and Gabriel Landeskog are available, but they would need a young, controllable defenseman and maybe even more.  If either of these players are dealt, it would be a blockbuster trade that could alter talent bases throughout the league.

Vancouver Canucks

  • Vancouver is one of the worst teams in the league, despite their position in the standings. They have an older roster, of which many of the players are still under contract for several more seasons.  It seems that the front office doesn't have the same understanding of the roster and even signed veteran winger Loui Eriksson to a six-year deal.  They should consider parting ways with the Sedin twins while they still have some value and the Canucks and recoup some of their worth.
  • Tradeable Assets: Forwards Alexandre Burrows and Jannik Hansen, and goaltender Ryan Miller

Arizona Coyotes

  • Another team that has just been horrible this season.  It seems that they have been going through a rebuild for the past ten seasons, but there appears to finally be some signs of encouragement and the future looks bright.  
  • Tradeable Assets: Forwards Shane Doan, Martin Hanzal, and Radim Vrbata; possibly defenseman Michael Stone

Players That Could Be Moved at the Deadline

Forwards

  • C/LW Martin Hanzal
  • LW/RW Thomas Vanek
  • C/LW Matt Duchene
  • LW Gabriel Landeskog
  • RW Radim Vrbata
  • RW Shane Doan
  • C/LW Patrik Berglund
  • LW/RW Patrick Eaves
  • RW Jarome Iginla
  • LW Patrick Sharp
  • LW/RW Alexandre Burrows
  • LW Brian Boyle
  • LW James van Riemsdyk
  • RW/LW P.A. Parenteau
  • C/LW Valtteri Filppula
  • RW Brian Gionta
  • LW/RW Drew Stafford

Defensemen

  • Kevin Shattenkirk
  • Michael Stone
  • Brendan Smith
  • Johnny Oduya
  • Demitry Kulikov
  • Cody Franson
  • Josh Gorges
  • Fedor Tyutin
  • Mark Streit

Goaltenders

  • Ben Bishop
  • Marc-Andre Fleury
  • Steve Mason or Michal Neuvirth

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