Baseball Hall of Fame Voting

With Baseball Hall of Fame voting results being announced in just over a week and how important of an election year this has the potential to be, I thought I would put myself in the shoes of voting members and see how difficult of a decision they had to make.  But first, a refreshment of the rules that surround Hall of Fame voting.

To get voted in by the Baseball Writers' Association of America (BBWAA), the most common and first method of election, a player must have had ten years of service time and be retired for five years. However, if a player passes away, his career can be considered before the five year post-playing mark. Also, before the writers see the ballot, first-year eligible players are vetted and lesser qualified players are removed as to not clog up the ballot even more than it already is.  Each writer can only vote for up to ten players on one ballot, and any player receiving at least 75% of the votes is elected. A player must receive at least 5% of the votes each year to remain on the ballot for the following year and a player can only remain on the ballot for a maximum of ten years.  If, after ten years, a player is still not elected, he can be considered by the Veteran's Committee, which is made up of members of the Hall of Fame, plus baseball historians.  Others elected by the Veteran Committee that are not players include baseball executives, managers, and umpires.

When a player is being considered for Hall of Fame, voting should be "based upon the player's record, playing ability, integrity, sportsmanship, character, and contributions to the team(s) on which the player played," according to the Hall of Fame's website.  This is especially important considering the current ballot which includes players of the Steroid Era who call into question the player's character. Another reason that this year's ballot is important is because several of the candidates are reaching the upper end of their ten-year allowance on the ballot and because this is an election in which there may only be one first-year candidate who is qualified to be elected.  This allows for the possibility that at least one of the returning candidates could be elected.  Now, let's look at the candidates.

First Year Candidates - Real Chance of Election

C Ivan "Pudge" Rodriguez (1991-2011)

• Texas, Florida, Detroit, New York (AL), Houston, Washington
• Played in more games at catcher than any other player in history; Voted to 14 All-Star Games; Won 13 Gold Glove Awards, most by a catcher; 7 time Silver Slugger Award winner; Won the 1999 AL MVP Award and 2003 NLCS MVP; One of the best all-around catchers in history
• .296/.334/.464 slash line, 311 home runs, 1332 RBIs, 2844 hits, .991 career fielding percentage, threw out 46% of attempted basestealers while the league average was 31% 

OF Manny Ramirez (1993-2011)

• Cleveland, Boston, Los Angeles (NL), Chicago (AL), Tampa Bay
• Was one of the most fun players of an era, inspiring the phrase "Manny Being Manny;" Helped lead the Red Sox to their first World Series championship in 86 years; 12 All-Star Game selections; 9 time Silver Slugger Award winner; Won 1999 and 2004 AL Hank Aaron Award winner; Won 2002 AL batting title and 2004 World Series MVP Award; Led league in on-base percentage and slugging percentage three times each.
• .312/.411/.585 slash line, 555 home runs, 1831 RBIs, 2574 hits; career .285/.394/.544 playoff slash line

RF Vladimir "Vlad" Guerrero (1996-2011)

• Montreal, Los Angeles (AL), Texas, Baltimore
• One of the best all-around outfielders of his time, having one of the strongest arms in right field the game has ever seen; Known for being an amazing bad-ball hitter, as he could golf balls off the plate and tomahawk pitches at eye level; Won the 2004 AL MVP Award; 8 time Silver Slugger Award winner; Led the league in intentional walks 5 times; Drove in 100+ runs in ten seasons; 9 All-Star Game selections
• .318.379/.553 slash line, 449 home runs, 1496 RBIs, 2590 hits, 181 stolen bases, 250 intentional walks, fifth most in history, compiled 126 assists from his outfield position

Other candidates that are on the ballot for the first time

• OF Mike Cameron
• OF J.D. Drew
• C Jorge Posada
• OF Magglio Ordonez
• 1B Derek Lee
• SP Tim Wakefield
• SS Edgar Renteria
• 3B Melvin Mora
• INF Carlos Guillen
• 3B/1B Casey Blake
• C Jason Varitek
• SS/2B Orlando Cabrera
• OF Pat Burrell
• 2B Freddy Sanchez
• P Arthur Rhodes
• OF/1B Matt Stairs

Returning Candidates

1B Jeff Bagwell (1991-2005)

• Houston
• 7th year on ballot; received 71.6% of vote last year
• Dominating presence in the middle of the Astros lineup for all 15 of his seasons, Bagwell was one of the most consistent hitters of his time; 1991 NL Rookie of the Year; Unanimously won the 1994 NL MVP Award; Finished in the top 10 of NL MVP voting five other times; 4 time All-Star Game selection; 3 time Silver Slugger Award winner; 1994 Gold Glove Award Winner; Hit the most home runs in franchise history.
• .297/.408/.540 slash line, 449 home runs, 1529 RBIs, 2314 hits, 1401 walks

LF Tim Raines (1979-2002)

• Montreal, Chicago (AL), New York (AL), Oakland, Baltimore, Florida
• 10th (and final) year on ballot; received 69.8% of vote last year
• Raines was a model of consistency during his playing career and whose value would be better understood had he played today.  A speedster on the base, he stole 808 bases, the fifth most in history, he was also a quality defensive outfielder, amassing 134 assists during his career; Made seven consecutive All-Star teams (1981-1987); Led the NL in stolen bases 4 times; Won the NL Silver Slugger Award in 1986; Batted at least .300 seven times and drove in 100 runs six times; Second highest stolen base success rate of any player with at least 300 attempts at 84.7%; Won two World Series with the Yankees in 1996 and 1998.
• .294/.385/.425 slash line; 2605 hits, 980 RBIs, 808 stolen bases, 1330 walks

CP Trevor Hoffman (1993-2010)

• Florida, San Diego, Milwaukee
• 2nd year on ballot; received 67.3% of vote last year
• Was the most successful closer in history until Mariano Rivera came along; first closer to eclipse the 500 and 600 save thresholds; Second all-time in saves; Voted to 7 All-Star Games; Led the NL in saves twice; Saved at least 30 games fourteen times; Finished top 10 in NL Cy Young voting four times and twice in NL MVP voting; NL Reliever of the Year Award was named after him
• 2.87 career ERA, 1035 games, 601 saves, 1133 strikeouts, 307 walks, 3.08 FIP, 1.058 WHIP

SP Curt Schilling (1988-2007)

• Baltimore, Houston, Philadelphia, Arizona, Boston
• 5th year on ballot; received 52.3% of vote last year
• Consistent starting pitcher who was at his best in the playoffs, helping his teams to win three World Series titles (2001 with Arizona and 2004 and 2007 with Boston); 6 time All-Star; Had three 20-win seasons, threw over 200 innings in nine seasons, and five seasons with at least 200 strikeouts.  Finished top 5 in Cy Young Award voting five times, including 3 second-place finishes, 2001,2002, and 2004, where he lost to Randy Johnson twice and Roger Clemens, respectively; Led the league in strikeout-to-walk ratio 5 times and has the best strikeout-to-walk ratio of any modern era pitcher; Ranks fifteenth all-time in strikouts; Has the third-best postseason winning percentage in history (.846) and set the single-postseason strikeout record in 2001 with 56; Won World Series co-MVP with Randy Johnson in 2001.
• 216-146 record, 3.46 ERA, 436 starts, 20 shutouts, 3261 innings pitched, 3116 strikeouts,          711 walks, 3.23 FIP, 1.137 WHIP, 4.38 K/B ratio
• Postseason stats: 11-2 record, 19 games started, 2.23 ERA, 133.1 innings pitched, 4 complete games, 120 strikoutes, 25 walks, 0.968 WHIP

SP Roger Clemens (1984-2007)

• Boston, Toronto, New York (AL), Houston
• 5th year on ballot; received 45.2% of vote last year
• Arguably the greatest pitcher of all-time, he won a record 7 Cy Young Awards; Was voted to 11 All-Star Games; Won the 1986 AL MVP Award and finished in the top 10 of league MVP five additional times; Won the pitching Triple Crown in 1997 and 1998; Led league in ERA 7 times; Had six 20-win seasons, fifteen seasons with 200-plus strikeouts, and ranks third in career strikouts, seventh in games started, and ninth in wins; Won 2 World Series with the Yankees in 1999 and 2000.
• 354-184 record, 3.12 ERA, 707 games started, 46 shutouts, 4916.2 innings pitched,                  4672 strikouts, 1580 walks, 3.09 FIP, 1.173 WHIP

LF Barry Bonds (1986-2007)

• Pittsburgh, San Francisco
• 5th year on ballot; received 44.3% of vote last year
• Baseball's all-time home run hitter, Bonds was also one of the best overall players the game has ever seen; Excellent on the bases, he stole over 500 bases, and is also the career leader in walks; Won 7 league MVP Awards, the most of all-time; Voted to 14 All-Star Games; Won 12 Silver Slugger Awards and 8 Gold Glove Awards in left field; Holds the record for most home runs hit in a season with 73; Led the NL in walks 12 times, on-base percentage 10 times, and slugging percentage 7 times; Drove in 100+ RBIs and scored 100 or more runs twelve times each; Third all-time in runs, fourth in total bases, fifth in RBIs and slugging percentage, sixth in on-base percentage, and tenth in games played.
• .298/.444/.607 slash line, 762 home runs, 1996 RBIs, 601 doubles, 514 stolen bases, 2558 walks,    688 intentional walks

DH/3B Edgar Martinez (1987-2004)

• Seattle
• 8th time on ballot; received 43.4% of vote last year
• Revolutionized the idea of a full-time Designated Hitter, played 70% of his games at DH; Won 5 Silver Slugger Awards; Voted to 7 All-Star Games; Finished top 10 in AL MVP voting twice; 10 different seasons of at least a .300 batting average; One of only nine players with at least 300 home runs, 500 doubles, lifetime batting average of at least .300; on-base percentage higher than .400, and slugging percentage above .500; Designated Hitter of the Year Award was named for him.
• .312/.418/.515 slash line, 309 home runs, 1261 RBIs, 514 doubles

SP Mike Mussina (1991-2008)

• Baltimore, New York (AL)
• 4th time on ballot; received 43.0% of vote last year
• An anchor in the Yankees rotation of the early-to-mid 2000s, Mussina pitched eleven seasons with at least 15 wins; Received Cy Young Award votes in 9 seasons; Won 7 AL Gold Glove Awards; Sixth best winning percentage in history (.638) with at least 250 wins; Pitched in 16 different postseason series; Appeared in 2 World Series
• 270-153 record, 3.68 ERA, 537 games started, 23 shutouts, 3562.2 innings pitched,                  2813 strikeouts, 785 walks, 3.57 WHIP, 1.192 WHIP

RP Lee Smith (1980-1997)

• Chicago (NL), Boston, St. Louis, Baltimore, California, Cincinnati, Montreal
• 15th (and final) time on ballot; received 34.1% of vote last year
• First pitcher to save 400 games; retired as all-time leader in saves and games finished; 7 time All-Star; Earned 3 Reliever of the Year Awards; Finished top 10 in Cy Young Award voting four times; Led his league in saves 4 times; had thirteen consecutive seasons with at least 20 saves.
• 1022 games pitched, 478 saves, 3.03 ERA, finished 802 games, 2.93 FIP, 1.256 WHIP

1B Fred McGriff (1986-2004)

• Toronto, San Diego, Atlanta, Tampa Bay, Chicago (NL), Los Angeles (NL)
• 8th time on ballot; received 20.9% of vote last year
• Consistent power hitter during the 1990s who hit at least 30 home runs in ten seasons, including seven in a row from 1988-1994; Voted to 5 All-Star Games; Won 3 Silver Slugger Awards; Finished in the top 10 in MVP six times; Led league in home runs twice; 
• .284/.377/.509 slash line, 493 home runs, 1550 RBIs, 2490 hits, 441 doubles, 
• Postseason stats (50 games): .303/.385/.532 slash line, 10 home runs, 37 RBIs

2B Jeff Kent (1992-2008)

• Toronto, New York (NL), Cleveland, San Francisco, Houston, Los Angeles (NL)
• 4th time on ballot; received 16.6% of vote last year
• Power-hitting second baseman, Kent holds the record for most home runs hit at the position with 351; Voted to 5 All-Star Games, Won 4 Silver Slugger Awards; Won the 2000 NL MVP; Had eight seasons with at least 100 RBIs and three with at least 100 runs scored.
• .290/.356/.500 slash line, 377 home runs, 1518 RBIs, 560 doubles

RF Larry Walker (1989-2005)

• Montreal, Colorado, St. Louis
• 7th time on ballot; received 15.5% of vote last year
• An excellent all-around player, Walker is best known for his power bat and elite arm in right field; Won the 1997 NL MVP Award after batting .366 and leading the league in home runs, total bases, on-base and slugging percentages; Voted to 5 All-Star Games; Won 3 batting titles and Silver Slugger Awards, as well as 7 Gold Glove Awards; Career slugging percentage (.565) ranks twelth all-time; Batted at least .300 in nine seasons.
• .313/.400/.565 slash line, 383 home runs, 1311 RBIs, 471 doubles, 230 stolen bases

RF/3B/SS Gary Sheffield (1988-2009)

• Milwaukee, San Diego, Florida, Los Angeles (NL), Atlanta, New York (AL), Detroit,           New York (NL)
• 3rd year on ballot; received 11.6% of vote last year
• Sheffield was a 9 time All-Star who won 5 Silver Slugger Awards; Finished in the top 10 in MVP voting six times; Had eight seasons with at least 30 home runs; Hit .300 in eight seasons; Led league in batting average in 1992; Ranks 21st in walks, 25th in home runs, and 27th in RBIs; Won the 1997 World Series with the Florida Marlins.
• .292/.393/.514 slash line, 509 home runs, 1676 RBIs, 467 doubles, 1475 walks, 1171 strikeouts

CP Billy Wagner (1995-2010)

• Houston, Philadelphia, New York (NL), Boston, Atlanta
• 2nd year on ballot; received 10.5% of vote last year
• Finished his 16-year career with 422 saves, fifth most all-time, and second most among left-handers; 7 time All-Star; Lowest WHIP per 9 innings pitched (.998) among relievers with at least 500 innings pitched.
• 853 games, 422 saves, 2.31 ERA, 903 innings pitched, 1196 strikeouts, 300 walks, 2.73 FIP,   0.998 WHIP

OF Sammy Sosa (1989-2007)

• Texas, Chicago (AL), Chicago (NL), Baltimore
• 5th year on ballot; received 7.0% of vote last year
• Power-hitting slugger, Sosa's peak was among the highest in baseball history, culminating in the 1998 NL MVP Award; Also finished in the top 10 in MVP voting six other times; 7 time All-Star; Won 6 Silver Slugger Awards; Hit 30 or more home runs in a season eleven times, including three seasons with 60 or more; Led the league in total bases three times and in runs scored three times, twice in home runs and twice in RBIs; Drove in 100 or more runs nine times; Ranks 8th all-time in home runs.
• .273/.344/.534 slash line, 609 home runs, 1667 RBIs, 379 doubles, 1475 runs

Who I would vote in

1B Jeff Bagwell

• Nearly a .300 hitter over fifteen seasons, Bagwell anchored a powerful lineup in Houston his entire career.  He has the individual awards - 1991 Rookie of the Year and 1994 unanimous NL MVP -  and was a model of consistency, never hitting less than 25 home runs in his career except for his final season, when he only played in 39 games.
• Likelihood of Election: BBHOF Tracker shows Bagwell's name appearing on 91.1% of votes after 191 votes have been counted.  He needs to appear on 62.7% of remaining ballots to be elected, so he has a good chance.

LF Tim Raines

• Stole the fifth-most bases in history with the second highest success rate of anyone with over 300 attempts.  Was an all-star seven straight seasons and had five consecutive years with at least 70 stolen bases.  Was an excellent outfielder and had 134 assists from his outfield position during his career and had a .988 save percentage.  His career would have higher value in modern baseball considering his baserunning and defensive abilities.
• Likelihood of Election: Tracker has Raines' name appearing on 91.6% of votes so far and only needs to appear on 62.3% of remaining ballots.  He should finally be elected.

SP Curt Schilling

• One of the most consistent pitchers of his era who was at his best in when it mattered the most, in the playoffs.  He compiled the highest strikeout-to-walk ratio of any modern era pitcher and the third highest playoff winning percentage.  Won over 200 games and had 3,116 strikeouts, 15th most all-time.  His 56 strikeouts in the 2001 playoffs are still a single-postseason record and he helped pitch three teams to the World Series.  While he never won a Cy Young Award, he did finish second three times.  He pitched in an era with Pedro Martinez, Randy Johnson, and Greg Maddux and still excelled; that fact, plus his postseason resume should be enough to get him elected.
• Likelihood of Election: Has appeared on 52.4% of ballots so far and would need to be on 93% of remaining votes to be elected, so it is unlikely to happen.  He has, however, seen his voting percentage increase every year since he has been eligible so it could happen in the future.

CP Trevor Hoffman

• I am on the edge with how I feel about voting for relief pitchers, but ultimately, I think that if Mariano Rivera deserves to be in, then so does Hoffman.  Hoffman was the first closer to reach the 500 and 600 save plateaus and finished with the record for career saves with 601.  He and Rivera are still the only members of the 600-save club and while he only led the league in saves twice, he finished with at least 30 saves every full season but one.  
• Likelihood of Election: Has appeared on 73.3% of ballots so far and would need to appear on 76.6% of remaining ballots.  It's looking like he will fall just short of the 75% needed for election but he has a good chance of getting in next year.  Last year, he only had 67.3% so he is gaining votes.

SP Mike Mussina

• While Mussina doesn't have the electric, eye-popping numbers that other pitchers of his era, Mussina was arguably the most consistent pitcher.  From 1992-2008, he never started less than 24 games, and although he only had one season with 20 wins, he did have eleven with 15 wins. Finished his career with 270 wins, a mark that few pitchers in playing today will be able to reach, and has the sixth-best winning percentage of pitchers with at least 250 wins.  Won 7 Gold Glove Awards in his career and appeared in 2 World Series with the Yankees in 2001 and 2003.
• Likelihood of Election: Appearing on 61.3% of ballots and needs to appear on 86.1% of remaining ballots.  Only appeared on 43.0% of ballots last year so he has a good chance of election in the next few years.

SP Roger Clemens

• Although Clemens is surrounded in controversy with PED allegations and his trial involving steroids use, he never tested positive so that shouldn't affect his election chances.  Clemens was the best pitcher of era, winning a record 7 Cy Young Awards and the 1986 AL MVP Award. Also had the pitching Triple Crown in back-to-back seasons and led the league in ERA six times, second most all-time.  He is among the best pitchers in history, ranking third in strikeouts, seventh in starts, and ninth in wins.  Won two World Series with the Yankees in 1999 and 2000.
• Likelihood of Election: Appearing on 63.9% of ballots and needs to be on 84% of remaining ballots for election.  He only received 45.2% of votes last year so election in the future is a good possibility.

LF Barry Bonds

• I have changed my opinion on Bonds in the past year, going from someone who thought anyone with PED allegations in their past has no place in the Hall of Fame to someone who is fine with a player being elected as long as he never tested positive.  And while Bonds has had plenty of controversy at the end of his career and in retirement, he never tested positive and is in good standing with baseball.  He is one of the best hitters, and overall players, this game has ever seen, hitting the most home runs in history, and finishing with the most walks and intentional walks in history.  Winner of 7 MVP Awards, also the most in history, Bonds was voted to 14 All-Star Games, won 12 Silver Slugger Awards and 8 Gold Gloves.  He holds the record for most home runs in a season with 73 and single-season walks with 232.  Was a member of the NL pennant winning Giants team of 2002.
• Likelihood of Election: Appearing on 64.4% of returning ballots and needs to be on 83.6% of remaining ballots, making election this year unlikely.  However, he was only on 44.3% of ballots last year so next year or the following year he could see election.

C Ivan "Pudge" Rodriguez

• Any player who is considered to be one of the best at his position deserves to be in the Hall of Fame.  There is really no reason that he shouldn't be in on the first ballot other than that some writers simply don't vote for a person in his first year of eligibility and that he was called a steroid user by Jose Canseco in his book.  However, he never tested positive so that shouldn't matter.  Pudge was an amazing two-way catcher, winning 13 Gold Glove Awards, the most at the position, has the highest success rate of throwing out attempted basestealers in history, and also hit at least .300 in ten seasons.  Winner of the 1999 AL MVP Award, 7 Silver Slugger Awards, and was voted an all-star 14 times.  Holds the record for most putouts in a career by a catcher and appeared in the most games of any catcher in history.
• Likelihood of Election: Appearing on 80.1% of returning ballots and needs to appear on 71.3% of remaining ballots.  It is looking like he will be elected his first year on the ballot.

RW Vladimir "Vlad" Guerrero

• If I were a voter, I would not be as tough on first time candidates as other voters are, and I think Guerrero is a perfect candidate to be elected his first year on the ballot.  Guerrero batted .318 over 16 seasons and hit 449 home runs over the course of his career, but was perhaps at his best in the field where his electric arm threw out 126 baserunners.  Vlad was one of the most entertaining players of his era and no pitch was ever safe with him at the plate.  Won the 2004 AL MVP Award after batting .337 with 39 home runs, 126 RBIs, and led the league in runs scored with 124.  One of only nine batters in history with at least a .318 batting average and .553 slugging percentage and the others are already in the Hall of Fame or will be upon eligibility.
• Likelihood of Election: Appearing on 74.3% of returning ballots and will need to be on 75.8% of remaining ballots to get elected.  He seems to be a borderline candidate to get elected in his first year.

Who I Wouldn't Vote For

RP Lee Smith

• I didn't vote for him because, if I'm struggling with voting in Trevor Hoffman, a much more effective closer than Smith, then I can't vote Smith in.  Didn't eclipse the 500-save mark.

1B Fred McGriff

• McGriff never won any major awards and, while I'm not someone who believes a player has to have an award on his mantle to be inducted, I think that borderline candidates need that something extra to give him an edge.  McGriff was the benefactor of playing on some really good teams in Toronto, San Diego, and Atlanta in the late 1980s to mid 1990s, helping to elevate his numbers.

2B Jeff Kent

• Kent just doesn't tick enough of the boxes off for me to vote for him.  He doesn't have 2,500 hits, doesn't have 400 home runs, and didn't bat .300.  He won an NL MVP Award, but was only an all-star 5 times and only won 4 Silver Sluggers.

RF Larry Walker

• I'm not even certain Walker deserves to be in the same category as some of the other guys on this list.  His career benefits from having a really high, but brief peak in the late 1990s and he also played in Colorado for most of his career, a place that is much easier to hit in than the average stadium.  He hit for a very high average over his career but he doesn't hit the marks, much like Kent; Walker didn't hit 400 home runs, didn't have 1,500 RBIs, and he only had a little over 2,100 hits.  Those aren't Hall of Fame caliber numbers.

RF Gary Sheffield

• Sheffield is an interesting case because he did hit 500 home runs, a number that used to guarantee election into the Hall, but that may not be the case.  The 500 home run plateau has lost much of its luster with it becoming easier to get into (there are now 27 members of the club) and because many of the recent players to reach the milestone have been linked to steroid use.  Sheffield is one of those players.  While he never tested positive for steroid use, he was mentioned in the Mitchell Report.  Although that alone isn't enough for me to keep him out of the Hall of Fame, Sheffield lacks some of the numbers needed to get him in.  He also never won any major awards and was unlucky enough to play in an era with Barry Bonds, Alex Rodriguez, and Ken Griffey Jr.

CP Billy Wagner

• This is another situation like Lee Smith where Wagner didn't compile enough saves to get into the category with Hoffman and Mariano Rivera.  Similar to the Designated Hitter, a closing pitcher struggles to gain the traction to get elected.

RF Sammy Sosa

• Sosa was a home run hitter and a really good one at that, but he wasn't a good overall hitter.  He hit over 600 home runs but only had a little over 1,600 RBIs, and didn't even hit .275 for his career.

LF Manny Ramirez

• Manny has tested positive for steroid use twice and that is the ultimate barrier to a player getting elected.  His career was great and, on numbers alone, Ramirez deserves to be in the Hall of Fame.  But if the writers won't vote someone in who has been linked to them but never tested positive, Ramirez doesn't stand a chance.

Next Year's First-Year Eligible Players

• SP Chris Carpenter
• CF Johnny Damon
• CP Brian Fuentes
• SP Livan Hernandez
• 1B/DH Aubrey Huff
• CP Jason Isringhausen
• CF Andruw Jones
• 3B Chipper Jones
• LF Carlos Lee
• CP Brad Lidge
• OF Hideki Matsui
• SP Kevin Millwood
• SP Jamie Moyer
• 3B Scott Rolen
• SP Johan Santana
• 1B Jim Thome
• SS Omar Vizquel
• P Kerry Wood

References

• http://www.baseball-reference.com/awards/hof_2017.shtml
• http://baseballhall.org/hof/2017-bbwaa-ballot
• www.fangraphs.com