Metropolitan Division
Projections
|
Actual
Standings
(As
of 1/4/17)
|
Games
Played
|
Record
|
Points
|
Washington Capitals
|
Columbus Blue Jackets
|
36
|
27-5-4
|
58
|
Pittsburgh Penguins
|
Pittsburgh Penguins
|
38
|
25-8-5
|
55
|
New York Islanders
|
New York Rangers
|
40
|
26-13-1
|
53
|
Philadelphia Flyers
|
Washington Capitals
|
37
|
23-9-5
|
51
|
New York Rangers
|
Philadelphia Flyers
|
39
|
20-14-5
|
45
|
New Jersey Devils
|
Carolina Hurricanes
|
37
|
16-14-7
|
39
|
Carolina Hurricanes
|
New Jersey Devils
|
39
|
16-16-7
|
39
|
Columbus Blue Jackets
|
New York Islanders
|
36
|
15-15-6
|
36
|
Basic Thoughts
- So, on the whole, I thought that the Metro Division was going to be one of the worst divisions in the league, with a lot of talent at the top of the division in Washington and Pittsburgh but then a significant dropoff. I thought that they would manage to get four teams into the playoffs along with four from the Atlantic Division. Instead, the Metro has become the best and most competitive division in the league, with the top three teams having enough points to lead any other division.
Pittsburgh Penguins - The Penguins have been what pretty much everyone thought they would be at the start of the season, one of the best teams in the league. This year's roster is basically the same that won the Stanley Cup last season and is made up of a group of players that have chemistry with each other. They have gotten timely goaltending, as Matt Murray stepped up when Marc-Andre Fleury was playing poorly while Fleury has played excellently since Murray has gone down with an injury. Their defense group has been much better than expected considering the amount of injuries that they have dealt with and Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, and Phil Kessel are all in the top 10 in scoring while Crosby is leading the league in goals. The Penguins don't really need to add much at the deadline except maybe a depth defenseman, but even that isn't necessary. It's looking now that Fleury will remain on their roster for the rest of the season and be traded in the offseason, rather than losing him outright at the expansion draft.
New York Rangers - I thought that the Rangers would be just on the outside of the playoffs at the end of the season, but they have developed into one of the strongest offensive teams in the league. They have scored the most goals in the league and have the best shooting percentage. They have struggled, however, in net, where Henrik Lundqvist hasn't been himself and the team has just a .913 save percentage. They are also a below average puck possession team, which are all aspects that can get a team into the playoffs but usually don't equate success in the playoffs. Going forward, I think that the Rangers could use a depth forward and defenseman to help overcome any injuries that they will inevitably face down the stretch. The struggle is that the team doesn't have a lot of cap space to be able to make any expensive moves unless the other team agrees to retain some salary.
Washington Capitals - This Capitals team isn't the same as those coached by Bruce Boudreau years ago. They are no longer a team that was forced to win by scoring five or six goals every night, although they are still capable of doing so. Instead, they have become a team that plays a solid two-way game, a specialty of coach Barry Trotz. They are fourth in the league in goals against, third in save percentage, and fourth in Corsi For Percentage. This is a team that can quietly win a playoff series and can win in numerous ways. The thing for the Capitals is that the regular season only means so much. They have been a regular in the playoffs basically since Alex Ovechkin came into the league but has always struggled to get out of the East. It is in the playoffs that the teams needs to be more successful and, until that happens, the regular season has limited value. From now until the trade deadline, the Capitals really don't need to do much. They are capable of scoring at will, play a solid defensive game, and their goaltending is some of the best in the league. The only area that they could improve would be on the back end of their defense, which is somewhat susceptible.
Philadelphia Flyers - The Flyers are currently the team that I thought they would be which is a wild card team. They are currently fifth in the both the division and the conference but have been struggling of late, going 4-4-2 in their last ten games. They are currently fourth in the league in goals for but have also given up the fourth most goals, causing them to have a negative goal differential. This has much to do with their goaltending where Steve Mason and Michal Neuvirth have played poorly and rookie Anthony Stolarz has stepped in admirably and seized some of the time in net. They have had solid metrics with above average puck possession numbers, proving that head coach Dave Hakstol's system is successful in the NHL. They currently have several quality teams behind them for the second wild card spot so they will have to play well down the stretch to be a playoff team. With some help, the Flyers can certainly be a playoff team and I think that if they are able to add some talent on defense they could be a very tough out in the playoffs.
Carolina Hurricanes - The Hurricanes finished sixth in the Metro last season after key young players made significant strides in their development. This development brought a great deal of enthusiasm for the 2016-17 season and some even projected that they would be a playoff team, although I wasn't among those. Making the playoffs most likely isn't going to happen now, but that doesn't mean the Hurricanes are a bad team. Their biggest issue is their lack of offense, ranking 22nd in goals for and their leading scorer, Jeff Skinner, has just 27 points. They've gotten surprisingly good goaltending from veteran Cam Ward, who has kept the team in games and has helped them become a top ten team in goals against. Although the season could be considered a disappointment to some, they are on the right path and head coach Bill Peters still has the team possessing the puck greater than 52% of the time. At the trade deadline, I think the Hurricanes should just stay put with the roster they currently have. They don't have any valuable players on expiring contracts except perhaps Ron Hainsey, so any moves they make will be minor ones.
New Jersey Devils - If the Hurricanes aren't a real disappointment for not being closer to playoff contention, then the Devils are a true disappointment. New Jersey seemed to be on a path to success last season and were solid in net, had a pretty good defense group, and were passable on offense. When they traded for Taylor Hall last offseason it was thought that the offense would improve enough to push them into a potential wild card spot, despite giving up defenseman Adam Larsson in the process. That hasn't been the case, however, as Hall was injured early in the season, their defense has been in shambles, and Cory Schneider, their best player last year, has gotten very little help in front. The team is still on the right path but it doesn't seem like this year will be the one when they start making the turn towards success. New Jersey does have two players in P.A. Parenteau and Kyle Quincey who have expiring contracts and could be movable at the deadline in order to bring back draft picks or prospects.
New York Islanders - Disappointment may not be a strong enough word to describe the Islanders' season thus far. After having made the playoffs each of the last two seasons and even winning a round last year, the Islanders are in line for a top five draft pick after the season. They are bad in nearly all facets of the game, not scoring enough goals, while giving up too many, and are last in the league in puck possession, with a CF% below 45%. I projected them to be a playoff team this year mostly because I didn't think that any other team in the Metro would step up and claim that third spot in the division. Despite this, I wasn't in love with the team and thought that the moves that they made (and didn't make) were bad, all of which have proven to be true. They let Kyle Okposo and Frans Nielsen walk after last season and signed Andrew Ladd and Jason Chimera to replace them. They don't have enough offense to stay competitive in games and they weren't getting a lot of help in net from Jaroslav Halak, who was recently put on waivers. One has to feel for John Tavares, who is a generational talent, but whose career is withering away in Brooklyn. Luckily for him he has a way out after next season when his contract expires and he can become a free agent. For this year, the Islanders need to do everything possible to trade away expensive contracts and try to recoup some value and they should seriously consider firing Jack Capuano after this debacle of a season.
Atlantic Division
Projections
|
Actual
Standings
(As
of 1/4/17)
|
Games
Played
|
Record
|
Points
|
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
Montreal Canadiens
|
38
|
23-9-6
|
52
|
Florida Panthers
|
Ottawa Senators
|
37
|
20-13-4
|
44
|
Montreal Canadiens
|
Boston Bruins
|
40
|
20-16-4
|
44
|
Boston Bruins
|
Toronto Maple Leafs
|
37
|
17-12-8
|
42
|
Buffalo Sabres
|
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
39
|
19-16-4
|
42
|
Detroit Red Wings
|
Florida Panthers
|
38
|
16-14-8
|
40
|
Toronto Maple Leafs
|
Detroit Red Wings
|
37
|
16-16-5
|
37
|
Ottawa Senators
|
Buffalo Sabres
|
37
|
14-15-8
|
36
|
Basic Thoughts
- Top to bottom, this division is seriously underperforming compared to what my expectations were at the beginning of the year. I thought that the top of the division would be much stronger than it has become and that there would be more competition for the division lead than there has been. I am surprised by how close the division as a whole is. Eight points separating the third place and last place teams isn't a lot.
Montreal Canadiens - I always thought that the Canadiens were going to be playoff team but I didn't expect them to be running away with the division. I think I continue to underestimate just how important a healthy Carey Price is to the team and how much help a defense led by Shea Weber can give Price in front. I still think that the Weber/P.K. Subban trade will end up being a win for the Predators long-term, but in the present, Montreal is the victor. The team has scored more goals than I ever thought they would and has been able to shut down opposing offenses, as was expected. Ultimately, this team is a win-now franchise which has all the pieces in place to push for a Stanley Cup and will go as far as Carey Price takes them. Look for the Canadiens to try and acquire some depth pieces between now and the trade deadline as they are dealing with numerous injuries to both their forward and defensive groups.
Ottawa Senators - The Senators are a big surprise this year similar to how the Blue Jackets are. While I was happy to see Guy Boucher get another shot in the NHL after coaching in Switzerland for two seasons, I didn't think that coaching the Senators was the best place to land. I liked the team with Erik Karlsson anchoring their defense, several talented goalscorers, and Craig Anderson in net, but I thought there were enough question marks to keep them from being a borderline playoff team. Nearing the halfway point, Ottawa is actually in the playoffs and have played well so far this season. Yet this early season success doesn't seem to be sustainable. They have a negative goal differential, having scored under 100 goals thus far, without even having a high shooting percentage, and are a really bad puck possession team. Their one bright spot has been in net where Craig Anderson and Mike Condon have played very well, often being the difference makers in games. The games that Ottawa has won have largely been close, low-scoring games in which they have scored three or less goals a majority of the time. The Senators have been a good story but staying in the playoffs seems unlikely for the rest of the season and for the team to be a legitimate contender they are going to need to acquire some scoring help at the deadline.
Boston Bruins - I thought Boston would break their two year playoff drought this season by getting the second wild card spot in the East. They are currently sitting third in the Atlantic Division despite having a negative goal differential, although they appear to be a better team than their record and goal-scoring numbers show. They have been a serious snake bitten team this year, having the lowest shooting percentage in the league, despite attempting the most shots. They are also the strongest puck possession team in terms of Corsi For Percentage and goaltender Tuuka Rask has been elite this year. The underlying numbers show that Boston will get better as the season progresses and if they have an opportunity to add some scoring depth or help on defense at the deadline they should do so.
Toronto Maple Leafs - I thought that the Maple Leafs would finish near the bottom of the division and, therefore, the bottom of the conference and be a borderline lottery team again. I thought that the front office wasn't necessarily as committed to competing and trying for the playoffs this season as they have become. Their roster is filled with young players under twenty-five and these young players are filling key roster spots for the Leafs and excelling. I didn't expect the young prospects to develop into NHL stars as quickly as they have. I think that there is definitely a chance that Toronto makes the playoffs, especially considering that they check all of the boxes. They are above average in penalty killing, power play, shooting and save percentages, and are an above average puck possession team. I don't think that the front office will go out and give up prospects or draft picks just to make a playoff push when their team probably isn't at the stage where they can win a round. They shouldn't do this either. Fans can see that there has been growth from last season to now, so making the playoffs isn't necessarily. The Maple Leafs are perfectly set up for the future with their current roster construction as some of their "older" players (James van Riemsdyk, Nazem Kadri, Tyler Bozak, and Leo Komarov) will all have expiring contracts around the time when the young players need new ones.
Tampa Bay Lightning - I actually picked Tampa to win the Stanley Cup this year after losing in seven games in the Eastern Conference Finals last season. I thought that they would enter this season with a healthy Steven Stamkos, two above average-to-elite goaltenders, and another year of development for their young players. Two of these three areas have not gone so well. Stamkos is out long-term and could be back by the time the playoffs begin but it's not a guarantee and Ben Bishop has struggled horribly this season after having a career year last season. This year was seemingly the best chance for the Lightning to win a Stanley Cup compared to recent seasons since it will be the last year where they will have everyone playing together. After this season the team's roster could look significantly different and no one really knows how those teams will perform. For this year, Tampa has still played fairly well considering their injuries and has still managed to be an above average team in nearly every statistical category. They will have the opportunity to add talent at the trade deadline, assuming that Stamkos remains out until the playoffs because as long as he remains on Long Term Injured Reserve, his contract won't count towards the team's salary cap. Picking up help on the back end of the defense and adding some scoring depth would definitely help the Lightning out.
Florida Panthers - The Panthers have been a mess for most of the season and it has very little to do with their on-ice product. I thought that they would finish second in the division and advance to the conference semifinals and continue their upward progression towards a Stanley Cup. Before the season began, GM Dale Tallon was "promoted" to an executive position while Assistant GM Tim Rowe was promoted to GM. Then, after twenty-two games, head coach Gerard Gallant was fired and replaced by Rowe and Tallon became GM once again. On the ice, the team has been quite good and above average in most areas, including puck possession. Their goaltending tandem of Roberto Luongo and James Reimer has worked out quite well for the team as both goalies have save percentages at or above .915 and sub-3.00 goals against average. They appear to be another team that has simply struggled to put the puck in the net during 5 on 5 play, as they have just a 7.3 shooting percentage, third worst in the league. I think that the Panthers can still be a playoff team, however, especially after Jonathan Huberdeau comes back from injury. They also have plenty of money and numerous draft picks that they could use to add talent to their roster, especially at forward.
Detroit Red Wings - The Red Wings have basically become the team that I expected they would, one that struggles horribly to score and that is just boring. Although they have been a playoff team each of the past twenty-five seasons (a North American professional sports record), they have just barely made the playoffs the past five years and have lost in the first round each of the past three seasons. Barely making the playoffs has left them with a roster that is sparse in talent and struggles to excel on the ice. The Red Wings are a below average team in all of the metrics, have struggled to score goals, and aren't keeping that many out with goaltender Petr Mrazek struggling and Jimmy Howard battling injuries. It looks very likely that the franchise's record-breaking playoff streak will come to an end this season and the team should do what it can to trade away NHL players in exchange for draft picks and/or prospects. Thomas Vanek and Brendan Smith are both on expiring contracts and Jimmy Howard will likely be traded before the Expansion Draft, giving Detroit a chance to jump start any rebuilding effort.
Buffalo Sabres - The Sabres have struggled from the start this year, in large part due to the injuries that they have dealt with at key positions. Buffalo is a young group that made giant strides last season, staying competitive for a wild card spot for much of the year. I hesitate to call this season a regression year in terms of their young players' development, but I did have higher expectations for this team than they are living up to. I didn't think that they would be a playoff team just yet but thought that they would be playing more like the Maple Leafs than they are. That isn't to say that this season has been a complete loss, however, as goaltending tandem Robin Lehner and Anders Nilsson have been very good, both posting save percentages above .920 and GAA's below 3.00. This team is still on a good track to be competitive in a few seasons alongside Toronto and Carolina when their young players reach their expected potential.
Central Division
Projections
|
Actual
Standings
(As
of 1/6/17)
|
Games
Played
|
Record
|
Points
|
Nashville Predators
|
Chicago Blackhawks
|
41
|
24-12-5
|
53
|
St. Louis Blues
|
Minnesota Wild
|
37
|
24-9-4
|
52
|
Dallas Stars
|
St. Louis Blues
|
39
|
20-14-5
|
45
|
Chicago Blackhawks
|
Nashville Predators
|
38
|
17-14-7
|
41
|
Minnesota Wild
|
Winnipeg Jets
|
41
|
19-19-3
|
41
|
Colorado Avalanche
|
Dallas Stars
|
39
|
16-15-8
|
40
|
Winnipeg Jets
|
Colorado Avalanche
|
38
|
12-25-1
|
25
|
Basic Thoughts
- Perhaps what Dallas did last year by winning the Central and winning a round in the playoffs was just a fluke? This year they are buried in the standings. A change in coach for the Avalanche, although, when done abruptly right before the season hasn't equated to on-ice success. The addition of P.K. Subban to the Predators hasn't been quite what the team's front office thought it would be. The top three teams are still the class of the division and then a sizable drop off before teams 4-7. Chicago manages every year to be the best team in the division despite losing talent each offseason and they're doing the same this season. Meanwhile, in Minnesota, new head coach Bruce Boudreau has his team as well as anyone could expect and even went on a twelve game winning streak earlier this season. In St. Louis, the Blues' offense is clicking in an effort to bring the franchise its first Stanley Cup in what is supposed to be Ken Hitchcock's last season as a head coach. Overall, I think that the Central Division has been fairly mediocre compared to what preseason expectations were and perhaps this will finally be the season that the division doesn't get both wild card spots.
Chicago Blackhawks - Over the past decade the Blackhawks have been the class of the league, winning three Stanley Cups in the past seven seasons. This year has been no different, as they are leading the division and are the class of the conference once again. There are an above average team in nearly every category except penalty killing, where they are second worst in the league. It seems unbelievable that the Blackhawks are able to do what they do year after year when they lose more talent each offseason. At some point this talent loss will end up catching up to them, but not this season. Between now and the trade deadline, Chicago's front office needs to do everything it can to help out goaltenders Corey Crawford and Scott Darling, and their equally excellent .925 save percentages, by acquiring some depth help on defense.
Minnesota Wild - Before the season began I thought that Minnesota was going to improve significantly from last year due to the hiring of Bruce Boudreau as head coach. I still didn't anticipate them making the playoffs though just because I wasn't in love with their roster from last year and didn't think that they did enough to improve it during the offseason. I couldn't have been more wrong and Boudreau is proving once again that he is one of the best coaches in the league and can work is magic anywhere. Boudreau has his team succeeding in all areas, although they are still not an overly strong puck possession team. The Wild have had excellent depth on offense led by Eric Staal, who is having a career rebound season, and Vezina-level goaltending by Devan Dubnyk, whose .939 save percentage and 1.82 GAA are both best in the league. I think that Minnesota will be a playoff team by the end of the regular season and have a strong chance to win the division and that there isn't really anything that they need to do before the trade deadline. This is a well-balanced and structured team that should continue to get better if Boudreau's coaching history continues. It would be really nice to see the Wild get into the playoffs and advance through a few rounds; this is a great market led by an excellent coach and both deserve postseason success.
St. Louis Blues - In what is supposed to be Ken Hitchcock's last season as an NHL head coach, I thought that the Blues would challenge for the division title. That could still happen, but so far the team has been underwhelming in its play. They have scored plenty of goals but their goaltending has been horrific with a team save percentage of just .901. Their puck possession numbers have been above average and their typical leaders have been performing as would be expected. Despite any struggles that they have, the Blues should be a playoff team and they have a strong chance of making another deep run once they get in, but that will require their goaltending improving. If it doesn't improve, perhaps acquiring a backup at the trade deadline to play behind Jake Allen would be the best move for them. I think the team's front office will do everything possible to give Hitchcock the best roster in order to provide him one last chance at a Stanley Cup.
Nashville Predators - I thought that the acquisition of P.K. Subban this offseason was going to be enough to win the division. I loved this team last season and thought that they had everything: a top tier goalscorer in Filip Forsberg, one of the best goaltenders in Pekka Rinne, and the best group of defensemen in the league; and that was before adding Subban, who I think is one of the best puck-moving defensemen. The Predators struggled at the start of the season, causing many people to rescind their decisions to pick Nashville as a Stanley Cup team, and even more to question the Subban/Weber trade. That slow start has turned around and the team is on the verge of a playoff spot largely because of strong puck possession and good goaltending. Subban is currently hurt but when he comes back there is a good chance that the Predators will make a strong run at the playoffs. The team could certainly use more scoring help and they have both the money and the draft picks to acquire players at the deadline.
Winnipeg Jets - The Jets are actually playing better than I thought they would, considering that I projected them to finish last in the division. That was largely due to the contract dispute between the Jets and defenseman Jacob Trouba, which would have left the team seriously shorthanded at the position, and that their goaltending was going to be an issue. The Trouba situation ended up being resolved as they re-signed him to a two-year deal, while goaltending became as big a struggle as could be imagined. Somehow, though, they remain just three points out of the playoffs, in large part due to an explosive offense led by eighteen year old Patrik Laine. Their goaltending is certainly an issue, having one of the worst save percentages in the league, which could be what holds them back from the playoffs. If the Jets are on the outside looking in at the trade deadline I don't think it would be smart for the team to trade away prospects or draft picks just to push for this year. This franchise should be part of the next wave of championship caliber teams alongside Buffalo and Toronto, so showing improvement each year is of the highest importance right now, not necessarily making the playoffs.
Dallas Stars - Dallas made the playoffs last year in spite of their goaltending with an offense that scored the most goals in the league. This season, their goaltending is still horrible but the team isn't scoring at the same rate as they did last year. The result has been a -17 scoring differential and the team is quickly falling in the standings. I thought that Dallas' success last season was a sign of things to come this year but that is quickly proving not to be the case. If the team doesn't turn its play around quickly and start stopping some pucks, the Stars won't have a chance to make the playoffs this season. I think that there is potential for them to acquire a new starting goaltender, either Marc-Andre Fleury from Pittsburgh or Ben Bishop from Tampa Bay, if they are willing to put together a solid package in return. It would also probably mean that either Kari Lehtonen or Antti Niemi go back and that the Stars would have to eat some of that player's contract. Besides a more consistent goaltender, there really isn't much that the Stars need to make them a playoff team.
Colorado Avalanche - Much like I thought, Colorado has been awful thus far. They are actually the worst team in the league and it seems like a full-scale rebuild is on the horizon. They have a lot of talent on this roster, including Matt Duchene, Gabriel Landeskog, and Nathan MacKinnon. If they can't win with those caliber of players, then there doesn't seem to be much hope for the franchise with the current group. New head coach Jared Bednar hasn't had much of a chance after he was hired late in the offseason following Patrick Roy's surprising resignation this past summer. There is basically no chance that the Avalanche make the playoffs this season so look for them to sell off pieces at the deadline, including Jarome Iginla and others on expiring contracts, as well as Landeskog and Duchene who have been placed on the trading block in recent days. By trading away those three players, plus a likely lottery pick coming in this year's draft, Colorado should have an influx of young talent coming their way.
Minnesota Wild - Before the season began I thought that Minnesota was going to improve significantly from last year due to the hiring of Bruce Boudreau as head coach. I still didn't anticipate them making the playoffs though just because I wasn't in love with their roster from last year and didn't think that they did enough to improve it during the offseason. I couldn't have been more wrong and Boudreau is proving once again that he is one of the best coaches in the league and can work is magic anywhere. Boudreau has his team succeeding in all areas, although they are still not an overly strong puck possession team. The Wild have had excellent depth on offense led by Eric Staal, who is having a career rebound season, and Vezina-level goaltending by Devan Dubnyk, whose .939 save percentage and 1.82 GAA are both best in the league. I think that Minnesota will be a playoff team by the end of the regular season and have a strong chance to win the division and that there isn't really anything that they need to do before the trade deadline. This is a well-balanced and structured team that should continue to get better if Boudreau's coaching history continues. It would be really nice to see the Wild get into the playoffs and advance through a few rounds; this is a great market led by an excellent coach and both deserve postseason success.
St. Louis Blues - In what is supposed to be Ken Hitchcock's last season as an NHL head coach, I thought that the Blues would challenge for the division title. That could still happen, but so far the team has been underwhelming in its play. They have scored plenty of goals but their goaltending has been horrific with a team save percentage of just .901. Their puck possession numbers have been above average and their typical leaders have been performing as would be expected. Despite any struggles that they have, the Blues should be a playoff team and they have a strong chance of making another deep run once they get in, but that will require their goaltending improving. If it doesn't improve, perhaps acquiring a backup at the trade deadline to play behind Jake Allen would be the best move for them. I think the team's front office will do everything possible to give Hitchcock the best roster in order to provide him one last chance at a Stanley Cup.
Nashville Predators - I thought that the acquisition of P.K. Subban this offseason was going to be enough to win the division. I loved this team last season and thought that they had everything: a top tier goalscorer in Filip Forsberg, one of the best goaltenders in Pekka Rinne, and the best group of defensemen in the league; and that was before adding Subban, who I think is one of the best puck-moving defensemen. The Predators struggled at the start of the season, causing many people to rescind their decisions to pick Nashville as a Stanley Cup team, and even more to question the Subban/Weber trade. That slow start has turned around and the team is on the verge of a playoff spot largely because of strong puck possession and good goaltending. Subban is currently hurt but when he comes back there is a good chance that the Predators will make a strong run at the playoffs. The team could certainly use more scoring help and they have both the money and the draft picks to acquire players at the deadline.
Winnipeg Jets - The Jets are actually playing better than I thought they would, considering that I projected them to finish last in the division. That was largely due to the contract dispute between the Jets and defenseman Jacob Trouba, which would have left the team seriously shorthanded at the position, and that their goaltending was going to be an issue. The Trouba situation ended up being resolved as they re-signed him to a two-year deal, while goaltending became as big a struggle as could be imagined. Somehow, though, they remain just three points out of the playoffs, in large part due to an explosive offense led by eighteen year old Patrik Laine. Their goaltending is certainly an issue, having one of the worst save percentages in the league, which could be what holds them back from the playoffs. If the Jets are on the outside looking in at the trade deadline I don't think it would be smart for the team to trade away prospects or draft picks just to push for this year. This franchise should be part of the next wave of championship caliber teams alongside Buffalo and Toronto, so showing improvement each year is of the highest importance right now, not necessarily making the playoffs.
Dallas Stars - Dallas made the playoffs last year in spite of their goaltending with an offense that scored the most goals in the league. This season, their goaltending is still horrible but the team isn't scoring at the same rate as they did last year. The result has been a -17 scoring differential and the team is quickly falling in the standings. I thought that Dallas' success last season was a sign of things to come this year but that is quickly proving not to be the case. If the team doesn't turn its play around quickly and start stopping some pucks, the Stars won't have a chance to make the playoffs this season. I think that there is potential for them to acquire a new starting goaltender, either Marc-Andre Fleury from Pittsburgh or Ben Bishop from Tampa Bay, if they are willing to put together a solid package in return. It would also probably mean that either Kari Lehtonen or Antti Niemi go back and that the Stars would have to eat some of that player's contract. Besides a more consistent goaltender, there really isn't much that the Stars need to make them a playoff team.
Colorado Avalanche - Much like I thought, Colorado has been awful thus far. They are actually the worst team in the league and it seems like a full-scale rebuild is on the horizon. They have a lot of talent on this roster, including Matt Duchene, Gabriel Landeskog, and Nathan MacKinnon. If they can't win with those caliber of players, then there doesn't seem to be much hope for the franchise with the current group. New head coach Jared Bednar hasn't had much of a chance after he was hired late in the offseason following Patrick Roy's surprising resignation this past summer. There is basically no chance that the Avalanche make the playoffs this season so look for them to sell off pieces at the deadline, including Jarome Iginla and others on expiring contracts, as well as Landeskog and Duchene who have been placed on the trading block in recent days. By trading away those three players, plus a likely lottery pick coming in this year's draft, Colorado should have an influx of young talent coming their way.
Pacific Division
Projections
|
Actual
Standings
(As
of 1/7/17)
|
Games
Played
|
Record
|
Points
|
Los Angeles Kings
|
Anaheim Ducks
|
41
|
21-12-8
|
50
|
San Jose Sharks
|
Edmonton Oilers
|
41
|
21-13-7
|
49
|
Anaheim Ducks
|
San Jose Sharks
|
39
|
23-14-2
|
48
|
Calgary Flames
|
Los Angeles Kings
|
40
|
20-16-4
|
44
|
Edmonton Oilers
|
Calgary Flames
|
41
|
21-18-2
|
44
|
Arizona Coyotes
|
Vancouver Canucks
|
41
|
20-18-3
|
43
|
Vancouver Canucks
|
Arizona Coyotes
|
39
|
11-22-6
|
28
|
- The Pacific Division has stepped up...sort of. The top of the division is more competitive than it has been in years, but the bottom of the division is horrible. This could be the year where the division finally gets more than three teams into the playoffs and could begin the end of reign for the three California teams.
Anaheim Ducks - I have to be honest, I wanted Anaheim to take a step back this year just for what they did to Bruce Boudreau. By firing him after four consecutive division titles and bringing back Randy Carlyle, who the Ducks previously fired during the 2011-12 season, I thought was wrong and I wanted to see the franchise struggle as a result. Instead, they're doing quite well and are leading the division, but seem to just be hanging on. They barely have a positive goal differential, have a poor save percentage, and are a below 50% puck possession team, an area they were strong in under Boudreau. This team should be a playoff team even if they drop off a little bit, but I don't expect them to get far in the playoffs either way. It will be interesting to see how they approach the trade deadline because they are already pretty tight against the salary cap and most likely will need to trade away a talented player as to not lose something of value in the Expansion Draft.
Edmonton Oilers - I thought Edmonton was poised to take a step forward this season after being a bottom five team against last year. However, I didn't have them competing for a division title and looking like one of the strongest teams in the conference. The Oilers have gotten to this place through strong offensive play led by Connor McDavid and solid goaltending by Cam Talbot. They are still weak on defense, though, which could be their letdown come the playoffs, and if McDavid or Talbot get hurt, this team will sink in the standings immediately. Look for the front office to try and acquire a top four defenseman at the deadline, perhaps even one with term left on his contract, in exchange for prospects.
San Jose Sharks - Although I still don't think that the Sharks are as good they appeared last season, but was a product of getting hot at the right time, I did come into this season thinking they would compete for a division title. That has proven to be true and the Sharks are once again one of the most consistent teams in the league. This year they aren't doing it by putting up gaudy goal numbers, but rather by playing solid, lockdown defense. This has led to them having a top ten save percentage and having given up the fourth fewest goals in the league. That could make them a very tough out come the playoffs, especially considering that they will be getting talented forward Tomas Hertl back, who has missed most of the season so far. It appears that the roster they currently have is the roster that they will have for the rest of the season because they have basically no cap space.
Los Angeles Kings - I thought that the Kings would have a good chance to bounce back from their slight regression over the past few seasons and win the division this year. That hasn't happened quite yet, although they are still a wild card team at the time of writing this post. Their underwhelming play could be contributed to goaltender Jonathan Quick's absence since he has missed basically the entire season. Despite the injury, the Kings have still been a shutdown team that suppresses the opposition's shots and control play nearly 55% of the time. Their struggle has been on offense where they have scored less than 100 goals this season and have only one player with more than 15 goals. Quick is expected to be back sometime in February, which will raise the team's play, and should help them become a playoff team. For them to be a true threat in the playoffs, the Kings will need to trade for some scoring help. They don't have a lot of cap space for the rest of the season and can't afford to take on any additional contracts for the future.
Calgary Flames - When the Flames signed Brian Elliott to be their starting goaltender, their only true weakness the past few seasons, it looked like the team was on its way to being a playoff team once again. If Elliott was actually playing to his career averages, Calgary would probably be competing for the division title. Instead, he has played horribly, and the Flames have the sixth worst team save percentage in the league. That seems to be the only thing holding them back, as they are an average or above average team in all offensive categories, and are even above average in killing penalties, meaning that their goaltending problems occur at five-on-five situations. They are also a positive puck possession team, which is somewhat remarkable for a team that struggled in that area last season. If the Flames can either get better goaltending from their goalies the rest of the season or acquire Marc-Andre Fleury or Ben Bishop at the trade deadline, they can be a playoff team and a tough out in the playoffs.
Vancouver Canucks - The Canucks are actually playing better than I thought they would, since I projected them to be the worst team in the league this season. They're not even close to that currently and have actually won more games than they have lost so far. They are still not a good team though as they have negative goal differential, are a sub-50% puck possession team, and struggle to score goals. They are getting surprisingly good goaltending from Ryan Miller and Jacob Markstrom, which is helping to keep the Canucks in the playoff race. If I were running the team, I would be trying to trade off assets as quickly as possible because there is no realistic way that they are a playoff team and they would be an easy out even if they did make the playoffs. They have value that would be of interest to other teams, including Ryan Miller, Alexandre Burrows, and Erik Gudbranson if he comes back from injury.
Arizona Coyotes - The Coyotes are the worst team in the league and they aren't even really trying to win right now. The team has a solid core of young players but are still not at the place where they are competitive. They have taken on bad contracts over the past few seasons in addition with prospects and draft picks to build for the future, moves that have benefited Arizona. Since they are trying for the first overall draft pick at this year's draft, the Coyotes should trade away any players they have on expiring contracts, including Shane Doan ,if he is willing to waive his No Movement Clause, and Radim Vrbata.
Edmonton Oilers - I thought Edmonton was poised to take a step forward this season after being a bottom five team against last year. However, I didn't have them competing for a division title and looking like one of the strongest teams in the conference. The Oilers have gotten to this place through strong offensive play led by Connor McDavid and solid goaltending by Cam Talbot. They are still weak on defense, though, which could be their letdown come the playoffs, and if McDavid or Talbot get hurt, this team will sink in the standings immediately. Look for the front office to try and acquire a top four defenseman at the deadline, perhaps even one with term left on his contract, in exchange for prospects.
San Jose Sharks - Although I still don't think that the Sharks are as good they appeared last season, but was a product of getting hot at the right time, I did come into this season thinking they would compete for a division title. That has proven to be true and the Sharks are once again one of the most consistent teams in the league. This year they aren't doing it by putting up gaudy goal numbers, but rather by playing solid, lockdown defense. This has led to them having a top ten save percentage and having given up the fourth fewest goals in the league. That could make them a very tough out come the playoffs, especially considering that they will be getting talented forward Tomas Hertl back, who has missed most of the season so far. It appears that the roster they currently have is the roster that they will have for the rest of the season because they have basically no cap space.
Los Angeles Kings - I thought that the Kings would have a good chance to bounce back from their slight regression over the past few seasons and win the division this year. That hasn't happened quite yet, although they are still a wild card team at the time of writing this post. Their underwhelming play could be contributed to goaltender Jonathan Quick's absence since he has missed basically the entire season. Despite the injury, the Kings have still been a shutdown team that suppresses the opposition's shots and control play nearly 55% of the time. Their struggle has been on offense where they have scored less than 100 goals this season and have only one player with more than 15 goals. Quick is expected to be back sometime in February, which will raise the team's play, and should help them become a playoff team. For them to be a true threat in the playoffs, the Kings will need to trade for some scoring help. They don't have a lot of cap space for the rest of the season and can't afford to take on any additional contracts for the future.
Calgary Flames - When the Flames signed Brian Elliott to be their starting goaltender, their only true weakness the past few seasons, it looked like the team was on its way to being a playoff team once again. If Elliott was actually playing to his career averages, Calgary would probably be competing for the division title. Instead, he has played horribly, and the Flames have the sixth worst team save percentage in the league. That seems to be the only thing holding them back, as they are an average or above average team in all offensive categories, and are even above average in killing penalties, meaning that their goaltending problems occur at five-on-five situations. They are also a positive puck possession team, which is somewhat remarkable for a team that struggled in that area last season. If the Flames can either get better goaltending from their goalies the rest of the season or acquire Marc-Andre Fleury or Ben Bishop at the trade deadline, they can be a playoff team and a tough out in the playoffs.
Vancouver Canucks - The Canucks are actually playing better than I thought they would, since I projected them to be the worst team in the league this season. They're not even close to that currently and have actually won more games than they have lost so far. They are still not a good team though as they have negative goal differential, are a sub-50% puck possession team, and struggle to score goals. They are getting surprisingly good goaltending from Ryan Miller and Jacob Markstrom, which is helping to keep the Canucks in the playoff race. If I were running the team, I would be trying to trade off assets as quickly as possible because there is no realistic way that they are a playoff team and they would be an easy out even if they did make the playoffs. They have value that would be of interest to other teams, including Ryan Miller, Alexandre Burrows, and Erik Gudbranson if he comes back from injury.
Arizona Coyotes - The Coyotes are the worst team in the league and they aren't even really trying to win right now. The team has a solid core of young players but are still not at the place where they are competitive. They have taken on bad contracts over the past few seasons in addition with prospects and draft picks to build for the future, moves that have benefited Arizona. Since they are trying for the first overall draft pick at this year's draft, the Coyotes should trade away any players they have on expiring contracts, including Shane Doan ,if he is willing to waive his No Movement Clause, and Radim Vrbata.
New Division Projections
Metropolitan Division
- Pittsburgh Penguins
- Washington Capitals
- Columbus Blue Jackets
- New York Rangers
- Philadelphia Flyers
- New Jersey Devils
- Carolina Hurricanes
- New York Islanders
Atlantic Division
- Montreal Canadiens
- Boston Bruins
- Tampa Bay Lightning
- Florida Panthers
- Toronto Maple Leafs
- Ottawa Senators
- Buffalo Sabres
- Detroit Red Wings
Central Division
- Minnesota Wild
- Chicago Blackhawks
- St. Louis Blues
- Nashville Predators
- Dallas Stars
- Winnipeg Jets
- Colorado Avalanche
Pacific Division
- San Jose Sharks
- Anaheim Ducks
- Edmonton Oilers
- Los Angeles Kings
- Calgary Flames
- Vancouver Canucks
- Arizona Coyotes
New Playoff Picks
Eastern Conference
- M1 Pittsburgh Penguins vs WC2 Florida Panthers
- M2 Washington Capitals vs M3 Columbus Blue Jackets
- A1 Montreal Canadiens vs WC1 New York Rangers
- A2 Boston Bruins vs A3 Tampa Bay Lightning
Semifinals
- M1 Pittsburgh Penguins vs M2 Washington Capitals
- A1 Montreal Canadiens vs A3 Tampa Bay Lightning
Finals
- M1 Pittsburgh Penguins vs A1 Montreal Canadiens
Western Conference
- P1 San Jose Sharks vs WC2 Los Angeles Kings
- P2 Anaheim Ducks vs P3 Edmonton Oilers
- C1 Minnesota Wild vs WC1 Nashville Predators
- C2 Chicago Blackhawks vs C3 St. Louis Blues
Semifinals
- P1 San Jose Sharks vs P3 Edmonton Oilers
- C1 Minnesota Wild vs C3 St. Louis Blues
Finals
- P1 San Jose Sharks vs C3 St. Louis Blues
Stanley Cup Finals
- Pittsburgh Penguins vs St. Louis Blues; Penguins in six games
New Award Picks
Hart Memorial Trophy (MVP)
Candidates
- Sidney Crosby, PIT
- Connor McDavid, EDM
- Carey Price, MON
- Devan Dubnyk, MIN
- Erik Karlsson, OTT
- Sergei Bobrovsky, CBJ
Winner
- Carey Price, MON
Vezina Trophy (Best Goaltender)
Candidates
- Devan Dubnyk, MIN
- Carey Price, MON
- Tuukka Rask, BOS
- Braden Holtby, WSH
- Sergei Bobrovsky, CBJ
Winner
- Devan Dubnyk, MIN
Calder Trophy (Best Rookie)
Candidates
- Patrik Laine, WPG
- Auston Matthews, TOR
- Mitch Marner, TOR
- Matt Murray, PIT
- Zach Werenski, CBJ
Winner
- Auston Matthews, TOR
Norris Trophy (Best Defenseman)
Candidates
- Brent Burns, SJ
- Erik Karlsson, OTT
- Duncan Keith, CHI
- Shea Weber, MON
- Drew Doughty, LA
- Victor Hedman, TB
Winner
- Erik Karlsson, OTT
Jack Adams Trophy (Coach of the Year)
Candidates
- Bruce Boudreau, MIN
- John Tortorella, CBJ
- Joel Quenneville, CHI
- Guy Boucher, OTT
- Mike Babcock, TOR
Winner
- John Tortorella, CBJ
Frank J. Selke Trophy (Best Two-Way Forward)
Candidates
- Marian Hossa, CHI
- Sidney Crosby, PIT
- Nazem Kadri, TOR
- Patrice Bergeron, BOS
- Ryan Kesler, ANA
Winner
- Nazem Kadri, TOR
President's Trophy (Awarded to Team with Most Points)
- Pittsburgh Penguins
Art Ross Trophy (Awarded to Player with Most Points)
- Connor McDavid, EDM
Maurice "Rocket" Richard Trophy (Player with the Most Goals)
- Sidney Crosby, PIT
Trades I Think Could Happen
- Colorado will trade at least one of their key young forwards (Duchene, Landeskog, or MacKinnon)
- The current plan of the Avalanche leadership group clearly isn't working and they have failed to make the playoffs five of the last six seasons, and the one time they did make the playoffs it was largely a fluke. The have a lot of talent on their roster, but it's almost entirely at forward, and need defensemen desperately. There have been rumors that perhaps Landeskog will be the first to be moved and Boston and Pittsburgh have been linked as potential landing spots. Landeskog won't be cheap as he is young, talented, and is under contract through the 2020-21 season at an affordable price. I don't think that Pittsburgh will be able to make this trade happen unless they send Olli Maatta in return, and if they can move Marc-Andre Fleury out for financial reasons. I'm also not certain how Boston would make this trade work because they don't have a lot of cap space currently (although they are in a better position than Pittsburgh) and would probably need Colorado to take a contract back. I also question if the Bruins have the prospects to send to Colorado to make the trade work and my guess is that any trade would require either Brandon Carlo or David Pastrnak going the opposite way, plus a pick.
- Landeskog traded to Carolina may be the perfect trade - The Hurricanes have plenty of young defensemen, have plenty of money, and have draft picks to go back. They are also on the verge of climbing out of their rebuild and transitioning into a competitive team. Landeskog would help with this greatly.
- Minnesota is another team that would fit well with what Colorado needs - They will almost certainly have to send back either Jonas Brodin or Matt Dumba. But will these two division foes want to make a deal with each other.
- Anaheim has excess defensemen that will need to be worked out before the Expansion Draft. Perhaps they could send Cam Fowler or Sami Vatanen back.
- Dallas Stars or Calgary Flames acquire Ben Bishop
- Penguins keep Marc-Andre Fleury until the offseason
- Toronto will move James van Riemsdyk
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