MLB Season Preview - San Diego Padres

2016 Record: 68-94	Manager: Andy Green (2015)
5th in Division	General Manager: A.J. Preller (2014)
Failed to make the playoffs	AAA Affiliate: El Paso Chihuahuas AA Affiliate: San Antonio Missions

News

• Acquired P Justin Haley from the Angels for a player to be named later; Traded Haley to Minnesota for P Miguel Diaz
• Traded C Derek Norris to Washington for P Pedro Avila
• Re-signed SP Clayton Richard to a 1 year, $1.75 million deal

Players Lost in the Offseason

POS.	Player	New Team	Contract
CF	Jon Jay	Chicago Cubs	1 year, $8 million
SP	Tyson Ross	Texas Ranges	1 year, $6 million
2B	Adam Rosales	Oakland Athletics	1 year, $1.25 million
RP	Brandon Morrow	Los Angeles Dodgers	1 year, $1.25 million

Incoming Free Agents

POS.	Player	Old Team	Contract
RP	Trevor Cahill	Chicago Cubs	1 year, $1.75 million
SP	Jhoulys Chacin	Los Angeles Angels	1 year, $1.75 million
SP	Jered Weaver	Los Angeles Angels

Top Prospects

• OF Manuel Margot - MLB.com (23), BA (24), BP (18)
• RHP Anderson Espinoza - MLB.com (25), BA (21), BP (24)
• OF Hunter Renfroe - MLB.com (42), BA (44), BP (92)
• RHP Cal Quantrill - MLB.com (97), BA (96), BP (45)
• LHP Adrian Morejon - BA (98)

Projected Lineup

Order	POS	Number	Bats	Name	Age
1	LF	16	L	Travis Jankowski	25
2	CF	7	R	Manuel Margot	22
3	1B	4	R	Wil Myers	26
4	3B	26	S	Yangervis Solarte	29
5	RF	10	R	Hunter Renfroe	25
6	2B	11	L	Ryan Schimpf	28
7	C	18	R	Austin Hedges	24
8	SS	2	S	Luis Sardinas	23
Bench	C/OF/RP	12	R	Christian Bethancourt	25
Bench	C	68	R	Luis Torrens	20
Bench	IF	60	R	Allen Cordoba	21
Bench	UT	15	L	Cory Spangenberg	26
Bench	OF	32	R	Jabari Blash	27
DL	OF/1B	24	L	Alex Dickerson	26

Projected Pitching Staff

Role	POS	Number	Throws	Name	Age
1	SP	27	R	Jered Weaver	34
2	SP	46	R	Jhoulys Chacin	29
3	SP	3	L	Clayton Richard	33
4	SP	38	R	Trevor Cahill	29
5	SP	53	L	Christian Friedrich	29
LR	RP	65	R	Miguel Diaz	22
MID	RP	55	R	Jarred Cosart	26
MID	RP	47	R	Paul Clemens	29
MID	RP	59	R	Kevin Quackenbush	28
SU	RP	52	L	Brad Hand	27
SU	RP	40	L	Ryan Buchter	30
CL	RP	37	R	Brandon Buaruer	26
DL	SP	41	L	Robbie Erlin	26
DL	SP	29	R	Colin Rea	26
DL	RP	56	R	Carter Capps	28

Most Important Player

• 1B Wil Myers - Wil Myers is the Padres best player and it isn't even that close.  Although it seems like he has been in the league for a long time, he is still just 26 and is still in the middle of his prime.  He has also bought into the team's plan having signed a 6 year, $83 million contract extension this offseason.  This certainly means that he is a major part of the franchise's future is being paid to be a core player when the team is competitive again.  Considering the Padres probably won't be good at all in 2017 and Myers has virtually no protection surrounding him in the lineup, I don't expect him to have a great season in terms of production.

Breakout Candidate

• OF Manuel Margot - Margot was the big piece that the Padres got in return from Boston for Craig Kimbrel and has probably been best served by moving to San Diego due to the congestion in the Red Sox outfield.  He received his first call up at the end of the 2016 season and appeared in 10 games, batting .243 while driving in three runs and stealing two bases.  He should have the chance to be the Padres everyday center fielder and will most likely bat near the top of the batting order.  In his minor league career, he has exhibited an excellent ability to get on-base and can steal quite a bit of bases when he reaches.  He should finish in the top ten in N.L. Rookie of the Year voting.

Regression Candidate

• P Trevor Cahill - Cahill has pitched better in the past two seasons than he has since 2010.  He is going to enter 2017 as a member of the Padres' starting rotation despite not starting each of the past two seasons.  There is probably a reason why he has pitched better as a reliever than he has as a starter and will most likely see a regression in 2017 now that he is moving back to the rotation.

Bounceback Candidate

• SP Jered Weaver - Weaver has pitched horribly the past two seasons and has seen his fastball velocity drop dramatically as he has aged.  Last season, he had a 5.06 ERA across 31 starts and gave up a league-leading 37 home runs.  His FIP was an even worse 5.62 so there is very little reason to be optimistic about Weaver in 2017 but I still think he will bounce back.  PetCo Park has traditionally been a pitchers' park and he should have a decent infield behind him, both reasons for optimism.  Plus, considering how successful Weaver has been in the past, I think that he will apply those abilities in 2017 as the Padres' ace.

Season Outlook

• The offseason following the 2014 season the Padres went on a spending spree and acquired Justin Upton and Craig Kimbrel from the Braves and Matt Kemp from the Dodgers, stripping their farm system in the process.  They also signed pitcher James Shields to a large contract, going all-in, starting in 2015.  That lasted for 2015 only as they still finished 14 games under .500 en route to a fourth place finish in the division.  The front office followed that up by starting to sell-off players last offseason, trading away Kimbrel to the Red Sox for Manuel Margot, letting Upton walk, trading Shields to the White Sox, and trading Kemp to the Braves. Most of these trades occurred with the goal of simply reducing the team's payroll and looking towards the future.  They followed those moves up by trading away pitcher Drew Pomeranz last season to the Red Sox for prospect Anderson Espinoza, now the Padres' top pitching prospect. In two years the Padres went from trying to win the following season to having one of the worst MLB rosters in recent memory and completely re-tooling their farm system.  All-in-all, it has been quite an amazing transformation.  The 2017 Padres are going to be really bad, possibly historically bad.  One look at their pitching rotation shows just how dire their season is going to be.  Jered Weaver is going to be their ace and he has been horrible in recent seasons, Trevor Cahill hasn't been a starter in two seasons, Jhoulys Chacin is not a good pitcher at this point, and Clayton Richard hasn't made more than 11 starts since 2012.  Their bullpen isn't much better with just a bunch of no-name pitchers.  Their lineup actually has the potential to be decent as there are several batters who can grind out competitive at-bats.  Wil Myers is really good and Yangervis Solarte has proven that he is a more than capable big league hitter.  They also have numerous young players who will be getting their first chance at being everyday players in the majors.  This is certainly the best path for the Padres to take by allowing their prospects to get generous playing time without any pressure put on them.  Considering how the franchise looked two years ago when their payroll was bloated and they still weren't overly competitive and had a poor farm system, it is incredible how bright the future looks.

Predictions

• The Padres are probably going to be the worst team in 2017 and will lose the N.L. West by a wide margin.  I am predicting them to go 60-102 this year.

*All stats and information came from baseball-reference.com, mlb.com, espn.com, spotrac.com, fangraphs.com, baseballprospectus.com, baseballamerica.com, and rosterresource.com