NFL Midseason Report

Prior to the start of the NFL season I made predictions on NFL records, divisional picks, playoffs, and awards.  Since it is around the mid-point season and every team will have played at least eight games, I thought it would be an appropriate time to take a look at how the season is progressing by looking at the standings, comparing them to my picks, and seeing where I am still confident and where I would like a mulligan.

NFC East

Preseason Predictions

• Washington
• Dallas
• New York Giants
• Philadelphia

Actual Standings

• Dallas: 7-1
• New York Giants: 5-3
• Washington: 4-3-1
• Philadelphia: 4-4

NFC South

Preseason Predictions

• Carolina
• Atlanta
• New Orleans
• Tampa Bay

Actual Standings

• Atlanta: 6-3
• New Orleans: 4-4
• Tampa Bay: 3-5
• Carolina: 3-5

NFC North

Preseason Predictions

• Green Bay
• Detroit
• Minnesota
• Chicago

Actual Standings

• Minnesota: 5-3
• Detroit: 5-4
• Green Bay: 4-4
• Chicago: 2-6

NFC West

Preseason Predictions

• Arizona
• Seattle
• Los Angeles
• San Francisco

Actual Standings

• Seattle: 5-2-1
• Arizona: 3-4-1
• Los Angeles: 3-5
• San Francisco: 1-7

AFC East

Preseason Predictions

• New England
• Miami
• New York Jets
• Buffalo

Actual Standings

• New England: 7-1
• Miami: 4-4
• Buffalo: 4-5
• New York Jets: 3-6

AFC South

Preseason Predictions

• Houston
• Indianapolis
• Jacksonville
• Tennessee

Actual Standings

• Houston: 5-3
• Indianapolis: 4-5
• Tennessee: 4-5
• Jacksonville: 2-6

AFC North

Preseason Predictions

• Cincinnati
• Pittsburgh
• Baltimore
• Cleveland

Actual Standings

• Baltimore: 4-4
• Pittsburgh: 4-4
• Cincinnati: 3-4-1
• Cleveland: 0-9

AFC West

Preseason Predictions

• Kansas City
• San Diego
• Oakland
• Denver

Actual Standings

• Oakland: 7-2
• Kansas City: 6-2
• Denver: 6-3
• San Diego: 4-5

Divisions I've Been Right On

• AFC East: I predicted that New England would win the division as usual, but even I didn't think that they would be 7-1 going into their bye.  I figured they would go 2-2 during Brady's suspension and even that record would be good. Instead, they went 3-1, only losing to Buffalo in that stretch.  The rest of the division is kind of following how I predicted it would go, with New England being the class of the division and then a big gap until the rest of the teams.
• NFC West (Sort Of): I definitely guessed that Arizona and Seattle would be the top two teams in the division with LA and San Francisco following in the distance.  I even guessed that the 49ers would be a borderline winless team and so far they have only one one game.  I also thought that the Cardinals and Seahawks would have better records than they do.

Divisions I've Been Way Off On

• AFC South: I was correct on predicting that Houston would be the best team in the division but they haven't been running away with it like I thought they would.  I also thought Jacksonville would be much better than they've been and perhaps now it's time for their front office to consider a coaching change.  Tennessee has also been better than I thought they would be and QB Marcus Mariota has developed quite nicely in his second season.
• AFC West: I greatly underestimated the skill level and tenacity of Denver's defense and figured that having no QB on their roster with playing experience was dangerous for them.  I also thought San Diego would be better than they have been but their roster is a mess, which is a shame because Philip Rivers has been quite good this year with very little talent around him.
• NFC East: I thought that Washington would win this division but that it would be a pretty close division.  I never would have guessed that Dallas would be leading the division, much less with a rookie playing quarterback, and playing the position very well.  I thought the Eagles would be in the basement of the division, just because I never thought that Carson Wentz would step in and play as well as he has this quickly in his career.
• NFC North: I thought Minnesota was going to finish in third place, just above the Bears for the worst record in the division.  I thought the Vikings were going to be a bad team even with Adrian Peterson and Teddy Bridgewater and had no idea that the team was going to be successful without Peterson and with Sam Bradford playing quarterback.  They have started struggling recently, though, and my divisional predictions may still come true.
• NFC South: Wow, Carolina has been bad and I don't think anyone could have guessed that they'd be this bad.  I knew I was definitely over-exaggerating their record by predicting 15-1, but I never thought they'd be 2-5 through week 8.  I'm also surprised at how well Atlanta has come together and the moves they made over the offseason have really paid off.

Teams That I've Been Surprised By

Pittsburgh: I thought that Pittsburgh would have a better record than they do at this point, but considering Le'Veon Bell's suspension and Big Ben's injury, their record makes sense.  They're still leading the division and considering their schedule for the rest of the season, the Steelers should really pull away from the rest of the teams in the division.

Cincinnati: I severely underestimated the importance of Hue Jackson's role as offensive coordinator for the Bengals in recent seasons.  I also didn't think that them losing wide receivers Marvin Jones and Mohamed Sanu was going to hurt them as much as it has.  I'm concerned about the team going forward and their schedule could make it tough for the team to make the playoffs.

Jacksonville: The Jaguars have plenty of talent at all of the right positions yet it all isn't coming together for some reason.  I thought they were a borderline playoff team this season actually and I think a new direction in terms of head coach is something that they need to explore.

San Diego: The story for the 2016 San Diego Chargers is the same that it has been for several seasons now where they have been around a .500 team before tanking to 4-12 last season.  Outside of Philip Rivers and a few other players, the Chargers are a very untalented team right now and it's going to take a lot to get them back to competitiveness.

Denver: I am positively surprised with how well the Broncos have played this season.  I was pretty certain that entering 2016 with no experienced quarterbacks on their roster was playing with firing but their defense has even better than they were last season.  They will battle with Oakland and Kansas City the rest of the year for the AFC West title.

Dallas: I thought that Dallas would compete with Washington for the NFC East division title this season but expected them to come up just short, and that was with Tony Romo playing quarterback. I figured that Romo would get hurt and miss a portion of the year, but never guessed that Dak Prescott would play at a level equal to or even better than Romo could play.

Philadelphia: I thought the Eagles would be stuck with Sam Bradford as their quarterback, that he'd get hurt, and that Carson Wentz was going to have to come in as a rookie and would struggle and the team would be bad.  I was right that Wentz was going to have to play, but it was because Bradford was traded and Wentz has played QB at an above average level and the Eagles were one of the best teams in the NFL the first half of the season.

Minnesota: Minnesota was on the receiving end of the Sam Bradford trade, giving up a first round draft pick to the Eagles for him after starting QB Teddy Bridgewater got hurt.  Bradford has played solidly for most of the season thus far, which has been great for the Vikings, as they have been without Adrian Peterson as well.  They have struggled offensively in recent weeks, however, and perhaps their run of success is coming to an end.  Their defense has still been playing at an elite level and their season has been a wonderful surprise so far.

Carolina: Although I didn't actually expect the Panthers to nearly go undefeated for a second season like I predicted them to do, I don't think anyone ever thought that they would be 2-5 going into week 9. They have struggled in just about every way possible and it seems unlikely that they'll be able to capture the division with how big of a lead Atlanta has on them.

Arizona: I picked Arizona to win the Super Bowl, Carson Palmer to win MVP and Offensive Player of the Year, and Bruce Arians to win Coach of the Year.  While all of these could still happen, Arizona has struggled to take off so far and Carson Palmer has missed a game due to a concussion and hasn't played that well when he been on the field.  This season isn't a loss yet for the Cardinals, as the Seahawks are absolutely still within reach, but they have to start playing better on all fronts.

Preseason Award Predictions

Coach of the Year - Bruce Arians, Arizona Cardinals

Offensive Player of the Year - Carson Palmer, Arizona Cardinals

Defensive Player of the Year - Von Miller, Denver Broncos

Offensive Rookie of the Year - Ezekiel Elliott, Dallas Cowboys

Defensive Rookie of the Year - Jalen Ramsey, Jacksonville Jaguars

Award Re-Picks

Coach of the Year - Jason Garrett, Dallas Cowboys - If the Cowboys keep winning, and win the NFC East, with a rookie quarterback, Garrett should win the award in a landslide in my opinion.

Offensive Player of the Year - Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons - He has been a major reason why the Falcons are 6-3 and sitting atop the NFC South.  He has thrown 23 TDs to just 4 INTs which is stellar in just half a season.

Defensive Player of the Year - Still going with Von Miller on this one and am very happy that I didn't pick J.J. Watt for this in the preseason.

MVP - I actually forgot to make this pick before the season and I'm going to go with Matt Ryan, but only for now.  I think that if Tom Brady continues playing the way that he has been (he has thrown 12 TDs and 0 INTs in his four games back from suspension) and the Patriots keep winning, then Brady will win this award.

Offensive Rookie of the Year - Still picking Ezekiel Elliott; he is currently leading the league in rushing and the Cowboys have already had their bye week.

Defensive Rookie of the Year - Karl Joseph, Oakland Raiders

Going Forward

AFC East

1. New England Patriots - I really don't think that there's any other choice for the rest of the season than the Patriots.  They have a big lead in the division already and even if they lose their two tough games against Seattle and Denver, the rest of their schedule is quite easy.  They should clinch the division pretty early this season and will probably have a first round bye in the playoffs and maybe home field advantage throughout.
2. Miami Dolphins - The Dolphins have been pretty underwhelming this season and they should have broken through and into the playoffs by now with the current core they have. They don't seem any closer now than what they were a few years ago and they're not making the playoffs this season unless a miracle happens.  While I think that Buffalo is a better team than Miami, the Dolphins have an easy schedule going forward, with the only difficult road game against San Diego, a home game against Arizona, and they have one game remaining against New England, which is the last week of the season, so the Patriots may be resting starters.
3. Buffalo Bills - The Bills have surprised me this season after getting off to a rough start, as they have rebounded nicely.  I actually think that Buffalo is on the upswing for the first time in awhile and are the second-most talented team in the division after the Patriots. I believe that they are better than the Dolphins, but the Bills have a brutal schedule the rest of the way out with road games against Seattle, Cincinnati, Oakland, and the Jets, plus a home game against Pittsburgh.
4. New York Jets - The Jets are just a mess and have the worst quarterback situation in the NFL outside of Cleveland. Ryan Fitzpatrick has had a chronic problem with throwing interceptions this season and Geno Smith has gotten hurt.

AFC North

1. Pittsburgh Steelers - I originally picked Cincinnati to win this division in a tight race with the Steelers.  That was largely because I thought Le'Veon Bell's three game suspension would be enough give the Bengals enough of a head start on the division for them to win it.  Now, with Ben Roethlisberger back from injury and the Steelers in first place, Pittsburgh has the potential to run away from the rest of the division, especially with their relatively easy schedule the rest of the way.
2. Cincinnati Bengals - Cincinnati isn't near as good as I thought they'd be before the season began and they have gotten off to a very slow start to the season.  I don't think that they'll be able to recover from this slow start and missing the playoffs at this point is realistic. They should finish second, however, as there is a severe dropoff after the Bengals.
3. Baltimore Ravens - The Ravens are a long way away from the team that won the Super Bowl in 2012 and have not been a very good team this year.  There's not much to be said about the Ravens except that they're better than the Browns, but way far back from the Steelers and Bengals and don't have a lot of talent.
4. Cleveland Browns - I predicted the Browns to go 0-16 and that's looking to be a very real possibility.

AFC South

1. Houston Texans - Houston is in first place as I expected them to be and they've put together a solid season despite iffy quarterback play.  I expect them to continue leading the division for the rest of the season, since they've already beaten Tennessee and Indianapolis once and road games at Oakland and Green Bay are their only real tough games the rest of the way.
2. Tennessee Titans - Tennessee is currently second in the division and I think that they'll finish the year in that position.  They'll have a tough schedule ahead of them but they've been playing surprisingly good football recently and have an easier schedule than Indianapolis going forward and they are better than the Jaguars.
3. Jacksonville Jaguars - Jacksonville has been worse than I expected they would be and I thought they would be in the mix for wild card spot.  I still think they're better than a last place team in an AFC South that hasn't amounted to what many thought it would be.
4. Indianapolis Colts - The Colts probably came into this season with playoff expectations but they have somehow managed to get worse every year since Andrew Luck was a rookie.  They threw away his first three years when they had him controlled on a rookie contract and he is now an expensive quarterback.  They have a horrible schedule coming up against staunch defenses that will get after Luck, making life very difficult for him.

AFC West

1. Oakland Raiders - There is a three team race for the division title, but I think Oakland will emerge as the winners.  Their roster is coming together quite nicely, as Derek Carr has become an upper level quarterback in the league and they have an above average defense.
2. Denver Broncos - I think that there could be a tie atop the AFC West and that the Broncos and Raiders will split games with each other the rest of the way.  As long as QB Trevor Siemian plays adequately at his position, then the Broncos should be fine the rest of the way.
3. Kansas City Chiefs - The Chiefs have played consistently well thus far and should be close to the top of the division by the end of the year.  QB Alex Smith is currently hurt with a possible concussion, however, which could cause problems for the Chiefs, but back up Nick Foles is good enough.
4. San Diego Chargers - San Diego should do Philip Rivers a solid by trying to trade him to a team with actual talent so maybe he could win a Super Bowl by the end of his career.  He has had a borderline Hall-of-Fame career but has never had much talent around him.  He deserves better.

NFC East

1. Dallas Cowboys - With the way Dak Prescott has been playing, in addition to the Cowboys' amazing offensive line and assumed offensive rookie of the year, Ezekiel Elliott on their roster. As long as Prescott is their quarterback and they don't decide to go back to Romo, the Cowboys will win this division.
2. Philadelphia Eagles - The Eagles have been really good this season, much better than I thought they'd be.  Carson Wentz has shown why the Eagles drafted him second overall in this year's draft. I think that they're too far back from the Cowboys to catch them however.
3. Washington Redskins - Washington has been underwhelming so far and I think it's been proven that they were smart not offering Kirk Cousins a long-term deal just yet.  Perhaps last year's division title was a fluke and a few years too early.
4. New York Giants - The Giants are a mess and a really boring team.  They'll finish in the basement of the division by the end of the year.

NFC North

1. Green Bay Packers - Green Bay is the class of the division and the combo of Aaron Rodgers and Jordy Nelson is about as good as they come in the NFL.  They will catch up to the Vikings and pass them by the end of the season.
2. Minnesota Vikings - The Vikings have been a great story so far but they have struggled the past couple of weeks.  I think that their offense has been outperforming expectations all season long and that has come to an end.  They'll lose their grasp on the division lead by the end of the season.
3. Detroit Lions - Detroit has played much better than I thought they would considering future Hall-of-Famer Calvin Johnson retired after last season.  Matthew Stafford has played at an MVP level but no running game and a bad defense holds the Lions back.
4. Chicago Bears - Chicago is rebuilding and that's no secret.  They have some talent on offense and QB Jay Cutler has played excellent this season, giving Bears fans nothing to complain. 

NFC South

1. Atlanta Falcons - Atlanta has built a solid enough lead to carry them to the finish.  Their offense has been potent and their defense has been good enough.  QB Matt Ryan has a real good shot at winning the MVP this season.
2. New Orleans Saints - The Saints have been better than I thought they would be but they just don't have enough to compete with a talented team like Atlanta.
3. Carolina Panthers - Carolina has been bad all year long and haven't gotten going.  They are carrying on a pattern of bad games going back to the Super Bowl.  They have missed Josh Norman way more than they ever thought they would.  Even if they fix all of their issues, they're still too far gone.
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Tampa has been a good story so far and Jameis Winston has taken steps forward in his development but I think they'll finish last in the division again.

NFC West

1. Arizona Cardinals - Arizona hasn't gotten going yet but they will overcome their issues to pass the Seahawks for first place.  They have too much talent.
2. Seattle Seahawks - Seattle will still probably be a playoff team but I don't think they have enough offensive talent to score.
3. Los Angeles Rams - Yeah, they'll be a 7-9 or 8-8 team.  That's all Jeff Fisher knows how to do.
4. San Francisco  - I projected that they could go winless and they only have one win so far. They won't win many more games the rest of the season.

Playoff Predictions

AFC

• Division Winners
• New England
• Pittsburgh
• Houston
• Oakland
• Wild Card Teams
• Denver
• Kansas City

NFC

• Division Winners
• Dallas
• Green Bay 
• Atlanta
• Arizona
• Wild Card Teams
• Seattle
• Minnesota