MLB Season Preview - Colorado Rockies

2016 Record: 75-87	Manager: Bud Black (2016)
3rd in Division	General Manager: Jeff Bridich (2014)
Failed to make the playoffs	AAA Affiliate: Albuquerque Isotopes AA Affiliate: Hartford Yard Goats

News

• Fired manager Walt Weiss and replaced him with Bud Black

Players Lost in the Offseason

POS.	Player	New Team	Contract
RP	Boone Logan	Cleveland Indians	1 year, $6.5 million
P	Jorge De La Rosa	Arizona Diamondbacks	1 year, $2.25 million
C	Nick Hundley	San Francisco Giants	1 year, $2 million
2B	Daniel Descalso	Arizona Diamondbacks	1 year, $1.5 million
2B	Daniel Descalso	Colorado Rockies	1 year, $1.5 million

Incoming Free Agents

POS.	Player	Old Team	Contract
1B	Ian Desmond	Texas Rangers	5 years, $70 million
RP	Michael Dunn	Miami Marlins	3 years, $19 million
RP	Greg Holland	Kansas City Royals	1 year, $7 million
SS	Alexi Amarista	San Diego Padres	1 year, $1.25 million

Top Prospects

• SS/2B Brendan Rogers - MLB.com (15), BA (16), BP (11)
• RHP Jeff Hoffman - MLB.com (44), BA (36), BP (50)
• RHP Riley Pint - MLB.com (51), BA (46), BP (46)
• RHP German Marquez - MLB.com (73), BA (53)
• OF Raimel Tapia - MLB.com (90), BA (49), BP (42)

Projected Lineup

Order	POS	Number	Bats	Name	Age
1	CF	19	L	Charlie Blackmon	30
2	2B	9	R	DJ LeMahieu	28
3	3B	28	R	Nolan Arenado	25
4	RF	5	L	Carlos Gonzalez	31
5	SS	27	R	Trevor Story	24
6	LF	8	L	Gerardo Parra	29
7	1B	12	R	Mark Reynolds	33
8	C	14	L	Tony Wolters	24
Bench	C	13	R	Dustin Garneau	29
Bench	IF	18	S	Cristhian Adames	25
Bench	UT	2	L	Alexi Amarista	27
Bench	OF/1B	65	R	Stephen Cardullo	29
DL	C	23	R	Tom Murphy	26
DL	1B/OF	20	R	Ian Desmond	31
DL	OF	26	L	David Dahl	23

Projected Pitching Staff

Role	POS	Number	Throws	Name	Age
1	SP	55	R	Jon Gray	25
2	SP	44	L	Tyler Anderson	27
3	SP	32	R	Tyler Chatwood	27
4	SP	34	R	Jeff Hoffman	24
5	SP	67	R	German Marquez	22
LR	RP	24	R	Jordan Lyles	26
MID	RP	52	L	Chris Rusin	30
MID	RP	45	R	Scott Oberg	27
MID	RP	38	L	Mike Dunn	31
MID	RP	30	R	Jason Motte	34
SU	RP	51	L	Jake McGee	30
SU	RP	56	R	Greg Holland	31
CL	RP	0	R	Adam Ottavino	31
DL	SP	35	R	Chad Bettis	27
DL	RP	47	R	Jairo Diaz	25
DL	RP	50	R	Chad Qualls	38

Most Important Player

• 3B Nolan Arenado - Of all the young, elite third basemen in baseball, Arenado is perhaps the best all-around at his position.  That means that I am saying he is better than Manny Machado and Kris Bryant, as well as Josh Donaldson and Adrian Beltre.  Arenado has led his league in home runs and RBIs each of the past two seasons all while playing stellar defense.  In 2016 alone, he amassed 20 defensive runs saved, the most of any third baseman in baseball and has tied or led baseball in this category the past two seasons.  Most Rockies who are good hitters suffer greatly from inflated home/road splits but Arenado isn't as bad as most.  In 2016, he hit .312 with 25 home runs and 85 RBIs at home and .277 with 16 home runs and 48 RBIs on the road.  He was certainly more productive at home but still a good hitter away from Coors Field. With the Rockies looking to field the most competitive team they have had in the last ten years, Arenado is a pivotal player for Colorado and the biggest threat in their lineup.

Breakout Candidate

• SP Jon Gray - The third overall pick in the 2013 draft, Gray became a full-time major league starter in 2016.  He didn't pitch all that well across 29 starts, having an ERA of 4.61 and pitched horribly at home, something not uncommon among Rockies pitchers.  His FIP was a full run lower than his ERA, however, indicating that he actually didn't pitch all that poorly.  There has been quite a bit made this offseason about his change in attitude towards pitching at Coors and has arrived at the realization that as long as he battles and out-pitches the opposing starter, that individual start has been a success.  This understanding could be vital because pitching at Coors means that a pitcher will have an inflated ERA but can still be valuable.  I think that Gray will be successful in 2017 and develop into the ace the Rockies believed they were drafting.

Regression Candidate

• 1B Ian Desmond - Desmond had an excellent season in 2016 after being forced to sign a one-year deal with the Rangers.  He played in the American League for the first time in his career and switched to the outfield for the first time as well, playing adequate defense.  At the plate Desmond batted.285, hit 22 home runs, drove in 86 runs, and stole 21 bases.  A good reason for his success was that he rode an elevated BABIP (.350) en route to his great season.  I think it is unlikely that he has that high of a BABIP again despite playing half his games at Coors and this will lead to some regression.  Another reason is that he will start the season on the DL after fracturing a bone in his hand, forcing him to be out until late April.

Bounceback Candidate

• RP Greg Holland - Holland missed all of the 2016 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery towards the end of the 2015 season.  Prior to his injury, Holland had been an elite, shutdown closer for the Royals, having an ERA over 2.00 just twice in full seasons.  Assuming that he still knows how to throw a baseball and that his tools remain the same, Holland should be a great option for the Rockies at the back end of their bullpen.  I think he will provide the team with quite a bit of value, especially in relation to the one-year, $7 million deal he signed this offseason.

Season Outlook

• In 2016, the Rockies had their best season since 2010 and also had their highest finish in the division since that season.  They finished third in the division in 2016 after the Dodgers and Giants and their players made significant strides on the field.  Their offense, which is typically great, was elite in 2016 with four players hitting at least 20 home runs.  Carlos Gonzalez rebounded greatly into a good all-around hitter once again, Nolan Arenado proved that he is one of the best third baseman in the game, and Trevor Story emerged as one of the game's great young shortstops.  Their pitching rotation also pitched better last season than in previous years and was led by numerous young starters including Jon Gray, Chad Bettis, and Tyler Chatwood. This offseason the Rockies front office made several moves to better the team for this season and to make a possible run at a playoff berth.  They made the, in my opinion, questionable move to bring Ian Desmond in on a five-year deal.  I like Desmond as a player but I don't think he should have received a five-year contract and certainly isn't worth giving up the 11th overall pick in this year's draft, the first unprotected pick.  Desmond is already 31 and giving an older player a long-term deal typically doesn't work out for the team.  The team also brought in relievers Greg Holland and Mike Dunn to help strengthen their bullpen.  I love the Holland signing and see it as a low risk, extremely high reward deal for the Rockies.  I think that the Rockies will be even more competitive this season compared to last year and make the N.L. West a very tough division.

Predictions

• I think that the Rockies will finish third in the N.L. West and miss out on the playoffs despite playing much better in 2017 than they have in recent seasons.  I predicting that they will finish 82-82.

*All stats and information came from baseball-reference.com, mlb.com, espn.com, spotrac.com, fangraphs.com, baseballprospectus.com, baseballamerica.com, and rosterresource.com