Monday, December 5, 2016

MLB Free Agency Predictions


  • After doing my offseason previews for all 30 MLB teams I want to do a free agency preview for the top twenty free agents based on how much their expected contracts could be.
  1. OF Yoenis Cespedes - re-signed by the New York Mets to a 4 year, $110 million deal with no opt-out clauses
  2. DH/1B Edwin Encarnacion 
    • Possible Landing Spots:
      • New York Yankees
      • Boston 
      • Texas 
    • My prediction: Boston Red Sox - recent rumors have said that the Red Sox aren't in the running anymore for the slugging DH and that the Yankees could be the leading team to sign him.  I still think he'll land in Boston though because they definitely have a need at DH and they have the money to spend.  New York probably still isn't ready to compete for the playoffs next season so giving Encarnacion a four or five year deal when they aren't necessarily trying to win in 2017 doesn't make sense.
  3. CP Aroldis Chapman
    • Possible Landing Spots:
      • San Francisco
      • New York Yankees
      • LA Dodgers
      • Washington 
      • Chicago Cubs
    • My prediction: LA Dodgers - If the Dodgers don't re-sign Kenley Jansen they will spend a significant amount of money to replace him.  If that happens, they will go after the best one available and if they're willing to pay him more than any other team, why wouldn't Chapman go there?
  4. 3B Justin Turner
    • Possible Landing Spots:
      • San Francisco
      • Atlanta
      • LA Angels
      • LA Dodgers
    • My prediction: LA Dodgers - I think that by the time the 2017 rolls around Turner will be on the Dodgers roster.  If he isn't a Dodger next season, the team will have a serious hole in their batting lineup and in the field.  Their lineup was left-handed even with Turner in it, and if he is gone their lineup becomes much weaker.
  5. CP Kenley Jansen
    • Possible Landing Spots:
      • LA Dodgers
      • Chicago Cubs
      • San Francisco
      • New York Yankees
      • Texas
      • Washington
    • My prediction: Chicago Cubs - I think that the Cubs realized the importance of having a lock-down closer at the back end of their bullpen after they acquired Aroldis Chapman at the trade deadline.  While they have Hector Rondon and he is an above average closer, if they added Jansen to be their closer and moved Rondon to a setup role they would have an elite bullpen again.
  6. CF Dexter Fowler
    • Possible Landing Spots:
      • St Louis
      • Washington
      • Toronto
      • Texas
      • LA Dodgers
      • San Francisco
    • My prediction: Texas Rangers - If the Rangers don't re-sign Ian Desmond they will need to go after an outfielder and Dexter Fowler is the best one available.  He is good lead off hitter who gets on base at a good clip and who has been a threat on the basepaths during his career.
  7. DH/1B/OF Mark Trumbo
    • Possible Landing Spots:
      • Baltimore
      • Boston
      • Texas
      • Colorado
      • Oakland
    • My predictions: Baltimore Orioles - I think that the Orioles will ultimately be the team to land Trumbo.  His bat played well at Camden Yards and with Pedro Alvarez out of the picture, Trumbo would only have to be a DH instead of having to play in the outfield where he is a poor defender.
  8. OF/SS Ian Desmond
    • Possible Landing Spots:
      • Baltimore
      • LA Angels
      • Seattle
      • San Francisco
      • St Louis
      • LA Dodgers
      • Philadelphia
      • Atlanta
      • Washington
    • My prediction: St Louis - Matt Holliday is gone now and the Cardinals struggled mightily with their offense in 2016.  Desmond had an excellent season at the plate, salvaging his career, and proving that he can be a serviceable outfielder as well as a shortstop.  He and the Cardinals seem like natural fits.
  9. SP Ivan Nova
    • Possible Landing Spots:
      • LA Angels
      • Minnesota
    • My prediction: LA Angels - Nova pitched quite well for the Pirates after he was traded there from the Yankees at the deadline.  The starting pitching market this offseason is the thinnest it has been in years and pitchers like Nova will reap the benefits.  The Angels will enter 2017 without CJ Wilson or Jered Weaver in their rotation and will probably try to grab up one or two off the free agency market.
  10. CP Mark Melancon - signed with San Francisco to a four year, $62 million deal
    • Possible Landing Spots:
      • Washington
      • San Francisco
      • LA Dodgers
      • Chicago Cubs
    • My prediction: San Francisco - with the struggles the Giants bullpen had this past season it became a known fact that they were going to get one of the big free agent closers this offseason.  Melancon seems like the most natural fit for them with his expected likely to be a little lower than those given to Chapman and Jansen.  Melancon is, however, just as effective of a pitcher as the other two and would the Giants lock down games thrown by their numerous quality starting pitchers.
  11. DH/OF Jose Bautista
    • Possible Landing Spots:
      • Boston
      • Baltimore
      • Texas
      • Seattle
      • San Francisco
    • My prediction: Texas - I originally thought that Bautista was going to be the one to return to Toronto over Encarnacion.  But since the Blue Jays have signed Kendrys Morales and Steve Pearce, there really aren't any spots left for Bautista who is best served as a DH at this point in his career.  I think that he will end up signing with the Rangers, despite the tumultuous history between the two parties.  The Rangers have an opening at DH with Prince Fielder retiring and Bautista would fit well in their lineup.
  12. C Wilson Ramos
    • Possible Landing Spots:
      • LA Angels
      • Atlanta
      • Minnesota
      • Baltimore
    • My prediction: Baltimore Orioles - The Orioles have yet to work out a deal with incumbent catcher Matt Wieters and it seems like his return to Baltimore is unlikely. I think that Ramos would be a good fit for the Orioles after he had a great season prior to being put on the DL with a torn ACL.  I think that the contract Ramos signs will be short-term one either way because of his injury history.  If he signs with Baltimore he could stay in the same area with his family, something that could be of importance to him
  13. SP Rich Hill - re-signed with the LA Dodgers on a three-year deal, where I was projecting him to sign
  14. SP Jason Hammel
    • Possible Landing Spots:
      • Houston
      • LA Angels
      • Miami
      • Philadelphia
      • NY Yankees
      • Seattle
    • My prediction: Miami - It was somewhat shocking when the Cubs chose not to exercise their club option on Hammel at the end of the season.  Hammel has pitched well throughout his career and could still be productive at 34 if signed to a shorter three or four year deal.  I think that Miami would be a perfect landing spot for him because they needed a starting pitcher before the death of Jose Fernandez and now they need even more pitchers.
  15. C Matt Wieters
    • Possible Landing Spots:
      • Baltimore
      • Atlanta
      • Colorado
      • LA Angels
      • Minnesota
      • Washington
    • My prediction: Atlanta - Wieters is a very productive catcher who has struggled to remain healthy in recent seasons.  When he has played he has been one of the better offensive catchers in the league and has played quality defense.  He is from South Carolina and has been linked to Atlanta for several years now.  The Braves have an opening behind the plate and are on the verge of merging from a team at the bottom of the league to one on the verge of being competitive again.
  16. OF Carlos Gomez
    • Possible Landing Spots:
      • Texas
      • Oakland
      • Toronto
      • Washington
      • Seattle
      • Baltimore
      • Philadelphia
      • San Francisco
    • My prediction: San Francisco - Gomez was signed by the Rangers to a league minimum contract after the Astros released him.  With Texas, Gomez was quite a productive hitter, batting .284 with 8 home runs in just 33 games.  His rebound may have helped to earn him a multi-year contract this offseason.  To me, Gomez is the perfect player to be signed by the Giants.  He'll come at a cheap price, is a good outfielder, and could thrive hitting into the deep outfield that AT&T Park has.  The Giants also have a need in their outfield and seems like a lineup Gomez would bat well in.
  17. OF Michael Saunders
    • Possible Landing Spots:
      • San Francisco
      • Toronto
      • Baltimore
      • Philadelphia
    • My prediction: Baltimore - If Trumbo leaves or becomes Baltimore's everyday DH in 2017, they'll have an opening in their outfield.  They probably won't want to spend the money on Ian Desmon or Desmond Fowler so Michael Saunders could be a good fit for them.  He is also a left-handed hitter which would bring more balance to their lineup.
  18. 1B/DH Mike Napoli
    • Possible Landing Spots:
      • Baltimore
      • Boston
      • Colorado
      • Texas
      • Seattle
      • Cleveland
    • My prediction: Cleveland, unless Boston doesn't sign Encarnacion - If Boston doesn't get Edwin Encarnacion to be their DH, I could see them going after Napoli, who they already have experience with.  He would be a good hitter for them and has shown in the past that he excels hitting in Fenway.  I do think that it is more likely, however, that he re-signs in Cleveland, a team that will need his power bat in their lineup next season.
  19. RP Greg Holland
    • Possible Landing Spots:
      • Kansas City
      • Chicago Cubs
      • San Francisco
      • NY Yankees
      • Boston
      • Colorado
      • Miami
      • Philadelphia
    • My prediction: Boston - Holland missed a good portion of the 2015 season and all of 2016 with Tommy John Surgery but has almost always been an elite reliever his entire career. If he proves that he is healthy again, he should have teams lining up to sign him.  I think that Boston will end up with him because their bullpen was an issue all season long. Holland would give them another option in front of Craig Kimbrel.
  20. SP Travis Wood
    • Possible Landing Spots:
      • Miami
      • LA Angels
      • Milwaukee
      • Philadelphia
      • Oakland
    • My prediction: Philadelphia - I actually have no idea about Travis Wood but I couldn't leave this list at 19 free agents.  I think that he could go to the Phillies on a one-year deal, pitch well, and then traded away at the trade deadline.

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